Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: WEST Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	2H2	345964	330873	320049	324301	389923	326160	395198	321285	324320	320970	310289	305140	309085	300037	310662	317634	313404	309486	300197	312721	307238	316471	318368	326422	323100	324370	337609	351009	343829	353381	345689
NMVOC	6B	1093102	1079892	1078555	1057718	1129208	1145142	1031480	1162698	1073206	1189258	1123333	1098862	1065073	1416034	1120774	1214129	1327998	1057128	1058972	1193302	1100265	1188410	1142496	1156924	1172611	1253401	1207826	1266996	1381486	1312163	1314275
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18617627	17587026	16894358	16269111	15396465	14941415	14710196	14241440	13783481	13064857	12354142	11865761	11328837	10972753	10584744	8885160	9940531	9549448	9136357	8492409	8242992	7836332	7656551	7418119	7184399	7133545	7084351	7125985	6989981	6890662	5505590
SOx	11A	8326822	5348907	6735719	6225830	5614400	5266208	5899015	6738567	6362612	6000029	5928709	4278487	5300254	3555820	2730723	1204448	1308459	840384	972791	949909	1070366	1243444	943444	943444	11823191	2069754	943444	943444	943444	943444	943444
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	26127797	23378695	21182907	20128307	18754612	17196638	15999332	14641201	13480762	11735924	10720062	10269012	9780548	9360259	8858948	8334000	8122359	7720033	6085573	5183565	4821816	4769872	4323549	3820190	3451396	3293723	2836949	2789591	2618516	2456410	2223180
CO	11B	1272385	970943	705291	1054468	1424146	682081	467225	757963	1095306	650510	1209166	599878	592206	1236499	683893	1068204	757078	1150472	486666	697148	510278	729828	1605254	436489	307678	610831	553582	2307316	386092	426707	611948
CO	5C2	680904	641204	669844	621019	581095	505052	739535	825684	715978	691188	778548	865993	747912	934002	795288	716459	825351	823739	789685	863479	881393	910111	679063	1004957	729912	876916	868016	828421	1049406	815027	806349

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	11B	67291	31628	36664	63549	36493	52575	43140	43990	24405	35363	25348	37196	71637	21162	19008	33006	25539	84502	16879	21340	30032
PM10	11B	82235	38647	44795	77652	44594	64250	52717	53754	29822	43215	30975	45453	87550	25859	23225	40335	31205	103273	20623	26077	36701
BC	11B	10643	5747	5185	10661	4935	6642	5052	10983	4866	6316	3749	6135	13884	2961	3092	5075	4774	21521	3029	3716	4802

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2f	235377068	227966981	206318046	185187400	204766610	207991067	188255993	181272978	180316458	175177823	159026885	144544571	142945732	136625460	137496013	134036993	126018995	134212955	117760746	78154465	81156263	82808204	78225839	76542636	76818965	79799585	79355927	82433925	83318954	81990524	74955215
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	623342799	539698527	479355527	383869173	314150846	240118431	204092335	191417309	145108352	106492690	28937764	27880454	26271296	24331630	15414549	3179943	3084048	2997662	2943524	2855950	2781080	2680434	2567821	2462285	2363519	2267953	2163831	2119435	2082692	2049133	1754871
Cd	1A2b	5563609	6320884	6075242	5798534	5456957	4873742	5074354	5055957	4410496	3858175	4078278	3630877	2101979	1022602	1016598	925261	868156	670724	698435	536010	655689	529164	466829	428189	410224	369934	347827	379360	367424	412780	432078
Cd	1A2gviii	4593027	3662492	2900152	2621571	2643424	2537406	2550570	2247473	2273037	1912278	1750156	1770844	1784814	1955224	2040059	2066387	1896226	1964341	1872642	1889415	2088200	2089809	1999470	2022928	2202934	2461036	2587139	2876364	3004810	3068796	3224190
Cd	2C1	27876936	23999268	21873882	21237146	22509901	23032428	21510224	22769006	21592273	19834569	20898214	19705211	18956716	16854738	15639551	13700883	14083290	13174627	12286050	8639658	10286723	10328148	8872209	8454850	8682783	8779407	8571118	8515559	8396342	7751578	6717748
Cd	2C7a	15152058	13936210	13564181	11707472	12433322	11702447	15201413	14640824	13838532	12201299	8822144	7834598	9874214	8788142	8569881	8354937	9534709	8126981	5975374	5179262	7159377	7295769	7053228	6978715	6878537	7137519	7330588	7726135	7441384	6862318	6949985
Cd	2C7c	9211554	5928016	6151389	6234082	3591944	3467915	2327908	3060380	1509938	1243857	640921	1114885	593450	598194	672615	639132	466966	384910	340568	244010	265864	267611	276659	217639	258299	229027	197496	235275	203389	209474	222260
Cd	2G	6326983	6377339	6246696	6249794	6281090	6378372	6979171	6982978	6972053	7756182	6054999	6841132	6711798	6675378	6786499	6719272	6548492	6475944	6518595	6624453	6245802	6275386	5857705	5695270	5689279	5783369	5706719	5570482	5638945	5662833	5205774
Cd	5C1a	9927522	9937468	9394077	2833358	2531759	2114901	1516078	1068955	871654	639371	634001	330744	242461	147386	76525	54906	27224	31705	43455	24435	36861	8726	7759	15545	7325	6627	7796	5520	5172	5519	5504
Hg	1A1c	8629779	6259617	4751867	3904322	3392148	2731877	2721065	2489552	2353482	2095794	2022222	1975084	1869222	2056876	2011666	1697480	1551151	1536631	1399422	996782	1337492	1458083	1147544	1073069	731585	841304	1069707	839402	852131	700362	666974
Hg	1A2b	3982213	4383505	4352919	4218933	4050893	4173239	4303356	4188565	3878283	3279644	3510518	3370840	3548842	998971	945183	901591	871883	885280	1186445	1066615	708404	736055	646600	769610	909311	751556	772222	720002	667176	713104	715688
Hg	1A2gviii	7636922	5075262	3837731	2898624	2428127	2497424	2235089	2191919	1912512	1820054	1589011	1429339	1428510	1401382	1293188	1264006	1249140	1207016	1256228	1181263	1349336	1242752	1256680	1546235	1463188	1360287	1375952	1283354	1222959	1105615	1089552
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	14918	14089	14868	15491	15595	15715	16506	18060	19353	21671	22370	22488	21508	22812	24771	26694	29650	31443	31745	29383	32574	33762	33702	35128	36997	37864	39211	43145	1046338	2047296	3018889
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	6585	6504	6644	6500	7136	7647	8426	8714	8978	10176	9703	9962	8876	9217	9440	9438	9783	9909	10311	10135	10035	10375	10273	9669	10401	10093	9854	10221	1010573	2010047	3006250
Hg	1B2d	3396904	3355195	3647080	3865818	3615459	3638703	3986144	4137498	4465752	4674571	4993152	4795222	4955026	5666659	2741450	2180339	2557056	1683468	1665872	1226234	1328634	1257584	2468192	1419674	2135648	1060741	472017	936910	810938	518155	432955
Hg	2B10a	24549193	24152064	21076313	15429525	16615145	15954661	13439253	10229533	9005710	8606155	8387258	7334230	6403528	6420829	6574547	6381387	6066061	4922852	4215090	3356750	3027149	3146468	2136794	2135638	2179833	1557352	1238246	1097929	498017	335495	234867
Hg	2C1	13964274	13199183	12810310	12668662	13073532	13170379	12417303	13352637	12673268	12918959	13514751	13029942	12677741	12383264	12376052	12004062	11984778	12001379	11229830	6987889	8482027	8949035	7756997	7752668	7841678	7485870	7116935	7604774	8066432	7480359	6371284
Hg	2C6	4587878	4564647	4478496	4700301	4378122	4466621	4073616	3630785	3063428	1965669	2403248	2222526	1839714	1482560	1432583	1149471	1141579	1104414	1378799	970881	906092	967234	1074401	1072717	1021119	982053	941350	908815	897191	954901	929446
Hg	2C7c	5468886	4733024	5079823	4852596	4105230	3490820	2958696	2325671	1762876	1330767	962710	907454	852366	855836	750650	710553	614707	523892	512811	351412	396142	422041	398302	385202	342241	296276	333002	451601	383981	507909	434245
Hg	5C1a	10566336	10013977	9217074	3101451	2814609	2564625	2332656	1478089	895110	665917	586337	363276	273357	288990	82980	81829	51111	30097	41569	51475	22915	30911	17521	19383	12177	11147	10024	7694	8652	7410	6168
Hg	5C1bv	1177348	1225496	1264992	1353808	1376401	1447844	1505161	1550551	1573684	1620140	1648912	1653885	1729010	1778726	1776570	1862417	1900355	1935958	2011864	1927408	1902000	1507252	1490926	1461107	1466223	1499457	1432604	1435738	1439338	1438879	1644146

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	2C1	878192	807306	739007	713648	704185	687603	637080	640303	590293	462567	467018	439034	414932	406620	437389	419141	424502	404257	376451	265110	328480	325316	304974	285918	301336	311059	294781	291095	296940	291150	245800
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	10261331	10053006	9448418	8924881	8389126	7884873	7157020	6847940	6481239	5970435	5801724	5387938	5137340	4743188	4831008	4545078	4134552	3541220	3604692	3892048	3355719	3245898	3566021	3587166	3437763	3416059	3311756	3292570	3198823	4744399	2670169
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9818962	9636513	9090478	8601906	8052221	7567704	6845422	6547606	6197209	5712952	5509857	5129012	4923651	4520209	4595872	4365217	3887388	3375210	3435101	3758278	3217660	3102342	3444556	3467993	3333512	3311282	3196070	3174544	3090937	4645896	2603385
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	10137566	9939394	9333202	8822215	8247354	7748864	7019223	6710454	6340379	5844695	5630240	5238978	5006874	4590818	4664621	4397238	3955806	3441354	3500851	3821388	3285156	3162695	3504883	3527613	3386364	3365055	3249205	3227519	3139600	4694278	2617479
HCB	1A2b	1301069724	1321178986	1347297788	558914000	6126888	6511499	6281592	6718780	6682360	4603936	5315908	5190727	5293321	5308996	5505356	5802441	5908847	6222040	5640361	4061231	5326725	6204236	5439081	5655564	6249829	6029537	6138589	6320002	5823288	5935803	4853095
HCB	1A2f	1286457	1290828	1325108	1170334	1240603	1159039	1164218	1175366	1202422	1135214	1177652	1185510	1212420	1212452	1248117	1265686	1286418	1305913	1214416	989478	965984	946495	25022950	103202043	108645527	823705	798023	805529	830126	824126	795212
HCB	2A1	8711552	8799329	9396407	9309509	9643019	9293661	8599516	9060574	9022197	8885317	9362622	8951033	8393342	7848782	7758190	8396451	8744642	8677939	8397589	7615218	7125681	6057682	6015023	2515912	2865028	952085	564438	29338848	1271485	507551	164672
HCB	2B10a	965644072	841326911	653126010	633017064	388776064	342744498	328850882	291426873	316049655	263704113	258630026	210439800	209283314	235889489	162786629	180405532	69950187	83058644	55302092	36908902	5410000	20543000	3081000	11826873	14895895	10262239	52077275	25882018	24013000	15473000	13232000
HCB	2C1	22875354	20951097	16641078	16130575	13809943	16035418	14070607	15218688	15996958	16229878	16106359	16966584	14947339	14985750	14317387	14168933	13773349	13944341	14009562	6262157	8929268	25178973	14412024	7276909	7319229	7172034	6895061	8611573	6858239	7051484	6925342
HCB	2C3	6022691429	5866543117	6190766263	6147759641	6788315420	6927256633	7024905090	7210875658	7739863247	3422810145	3534133918	3719030113	488158403	68948979	11194359	9397577	13930237	11365084	10161233	10578525	12322308	13573766	12037149	8387884	6552630	3618151	3129249	4639276	3875605	6812397	2427631
HCB	3Df	551043698	545237663	455931801	418930211	409004969	402268966	390190648	456401957	520615950	402102807	110341162	73320712	87261985	74799787	88081958	94064969	91938600	77695979	86621790	76931655	88525391	80128347	71292274	64881250	92943461	87859248	104847228	119777209	67684555	70816995	47877537
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9448280985	9133862240	9166145973	8284276960	8111305838	8169918061	8180938093	8337759682	8909462162	4366567364	4162434433	4270558267	993975897	579810897	442851399	453027305	342088236	331928696	306127153	263099352	245330578	262716791	255410548	315762150	351566838	226977394	286695487	312678849	224760403	217443507	182275486
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9190979408	8879177906	8924175296	8222595692	8063552275	8125124891	8139463878	8299863231	8876890947	4338252944	4139980265	4248038490	973126588	559142001	422685086	450392372	322349400	312402724	286529714	244325166	223456536	242186637	210904251	193087353	224806366	208305441	267996508	292329669	206736044	199623440	181639536
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	9446446378	9132232528	9164621896	8283175876	8109482802	8168088058	8179197131	8336012370	8907578608	4364904578	4160583702	4268741628	992112105	577665216	440576159	450836692	339508376	329257915	303489685	260293442	242453610	259672319	252741235	313604018	349287342	224649497	284904652	310801270	223060980	217132395	181989614
PCB	2C1	1205267832	1058740377	1027256925	1020048839	1007762790	1016100782	914626599	968977707	915191976	718096431	728661938	687367333	639807875	628446941	657976813	616526901	659406007	663114660	638025580	419555603	506460032	515590630	463540497	448593140	454643977	442219570	418279488	436509758	440604623	412165323	366747166
PCB	2C5	827815710	849902125	868939301	678664069	669370851	612360599	528719628	603088430	566911643	415775741	362188704	282541845	220014313	147181295	36908667	23593635	28196752	32556113	61026992	63724686	89663836	95227077	75073606	66031748	48675540	59862119	56954114	63779301	77015224	84751616	67346683
PCB	5E	378315526	378862920	383270876	381827869	379623023	386217024	374426420	359120835	342977850	847144421	853457850	738220413	651452311	570884091	454490922	369675980	312617098	242072638	194545180	156104038	123168561	112497506	98956416	89460434	81306372	78825983	72907344	70075520	68074890	64608828	49126900