Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: WEST Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NMVOC	6B	1093102	1079892	1078555	1057718	1129208	1145142	1031480	1162698	1073206	1189258	1123333	1098862	1065073	1416034	1120774	1214129	1327998	1057128	1058972	1193302	1100265	1188410	1142496	1156924	1172611	1253401	1207826	1266996	1381486	1312163
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18679816	17946514	17329455	16659122	15595008	15114282	14891980	14405062	13885984	13186729	12479441	12018377	11503677	11122193	10752131	8732376	9836792	9446956	9027829	8371660	7765058	7386270	7212451	6952518	6721787	7070172	7006666	7069107	6953467	6877139
SOx	11A	8326822	5348907	6735719	6225830	5614400	5266208	5899015	6738567	6362612	6000029	5928709	4278487	5300254	3555820	2730723	1204448	1308459	840384	972791	949909	1070366	1243444	943444	943444	11823191	2069754	943444	943444	943444	943444
SOx	1A2a	623736	599382	478752	449546	455699	471153	422466	410919	346381	281173	284312	215480	195926	194623	200605	196972	188397	176552	162310	106524	125249	150737	127996	100764	98731	99547	95859	95903	93696	85101
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	25740530	23031848	20935601	19897585	18550999	16997306	15826998	14485347	13319523	11593133	10578652	10153890	9675234	9268049	8747620	8249443	8007957	7610984	5999803	5072624	4738439	4688254	4249655	3753444	3387768	3231777	2771195	2718176	2557068	2427401
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	25213286	22984439	20889841	19856294	18512184	16958994	15791577	14452267	13283378	11560599	10547698	10121528	9644797	9237086	8716138	8217798	7976949	7582225	5970545	5045195	4711588	4664431	4225647	3731241	3368107	3213921	2753394	2700911	2540310	2410375
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	25258303	23029720	20933367	19894914	18548372	16995119	15825405	14483577	13316987	11591741	10577033	10152220	9673732	9266518	8747218	8249223	8007765	7610831	5999676	5072510	4738326	4688152	4249557	3753342	3387677	3231682	2771110	2718094	2556984	2427331
NH3	3B4gii	126522	121956	115897	112039	113817	115241	119677	121911	122502	121157	120572	125160	122999	116773	115109	113431	107890	111555	111096	110915	108414	110608	107985	108469	112265	115457	119671	120806	156191	155632

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2a	260195350	243391425	224452575	199005376	214221302	225892950	206402129	172480229	149191328	128717953	127074779	120714379	114537825	127452905	122875087	129198149	128968829	127027763	113458965	69117582	96082152	94893089	88167280	79591888	83760605	66616981	64540284	62039397	58807107	57092540
Pb	1A2b	194593155	190888982	179627877	221582698	220499133	229140600	260817495	194516493	201353081	191451283	188420192	175645390	130896177	125695563	128109142	106422845	104124337	97782417	170658731	73824590	57787613	61351567	63846065	67034316	74982629	67187027	59478523	65785011	66801415	66314716
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	622828775	539243648	479070688	383731362	314213074	240198741	204167667	191472402	145220201	106667522	29159484	28141793	26508693	24544981	15453158	3166445	3073853	2985862	2929981	2837832	2760724	2660133	2550125	2442898	2342995	2245631	2142876	2096117	2092820	2034955
Pb	2C5	208349332	176981541	192159602	186030089	179056239	190802850	196634241	208112102	220969828	167271443	143005363	115278077	109945294	86802001	63234661	43615525	46474292	53988379	56790225	53008807	59888403	56558271	63520759	61433275	60258212	48996696	45940980	44372798	45371978	42502074
Cd	1A2b	7251552	7573477	7068673	6842467	6757610	6130233	6671519	6568107	5892391	5210243	5982355	5449086	3744328	2721143	2982463	2403486	2347784	1914919	2122126	1351310	1190379	1098594	1073128	1138933	1983198	1033406	1202568	1154736	1224308	1272276
Cd	1A2gviii	7786869	6786059	4979584	4132495	4784931	3758636	2854349	2705242	2634039	2236205	1698997	1725177	1745178	1899876	1974934	2000598	1838607	1935945	1819927	1807169	2059678	2061051	1967650	1990101	2169637	2394562	2514705	2814414	2948573	2980885
Cd	2C1	27878092	24000102	21873928	21236534	22497467	22972901	21463137	22708154	21525108	19781683	20840617	19648030	18894930	16793547	15576287	13625733	14005096	13356942	12467908	8774988	10461340	10507541	9050143	8646653	8871881	8963138	8879513	8833905	8663799	8053259
Cd	2C7c	9211233	5927723	6151109	6233804	3591659	3467623	2327615	3061011	1509638	1243557	640621	1114585	592864	597031	670921	637307	464293	380789	335589	236653	258810	261191	270365	211047	251928	222954	200244	240223	206142	218692
Cd	2G	5937530	5979536	5869017	5879018	5905938	5994308	6621233	6610171	6588470	7368297	5700930	6495508	6355299	6321717	6438063	6379095	6195363	6111548	6136964	6261801	5874325	5905761	5503501	5374408	5382905	5458885	5374142	5241028	5266082	5275806
Cd	5C1a	9871762	9881708	9338317	2864187	2531592	2114854	1516125	1068957	871656	639373	634003	330756	242472	147397	76525	54906	27224	31705	43455	24435	36861	8726	7759	15545	7325	6629	7800	5523	5176	5192
Hg	1A1c	8641743	6271628	4762588	3921325	3409428	2754312	2740628	2510638	2368837	2110113	2040857	1997716	1888831	2078951	2027962	1712247	1564354	1547032	1404925	996493	1337501	1458185	1147509	1073080	731608	841441	1056162	820823	832074	700471
Hg	1A2a	3999591	4511783	3413815	2947880	3440019	3653901	3288704	3316528	2999548	2628858	2621620	2390262	2218376	2361032	2485429	2650257	2692773	2678798	2362370	1501296	1989182	2101273	1984782	1726443	1636845	1551911	1589993	1542523	1540435	1462754
Hg	1A2b	4059003	4342960	4469194	4457086	4311017	4457964	4598975	4609329	4198285	3592636	3797862	3639389	3795315	1936840	1776771	1116073	1086525	1100673	1456868	1298945	928181	928319	828872	979036	1125676	947768	988168	900451	871573	923957
Hg	1A2gviii	7613118	5036500	3832274	2915600	2433261	2471750	2186546	2164672	1894723	1794396	1571596	1401374	1417620	1368969	1253117	1249910	1231633	1192819	1267089	1156836	1329596	1240946	1248351	1543435	1442027	1345533	1361998	1271009	1164878	1088849
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	14913	14084	14861	15482	15585	15706	16497	18052	19344	21663	22361	22480	21499	22802	24760	26683	29639	31431	31735	29373	32565	33755	33696	35121	36991	37859	39210	43143	1046333	2047306
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	6565	6481	6613	6461	7095	7609	8389	8681	8945	10145	9672	9929	8841	9182	9407	9404	9751	9875	10279	10105	10007	10345	10244	9640	10369	10062	9820	10187	1010536	2010015
Hg	1B2d	3396904	3355195	3647080	3865818	3615459	3638703	3986144	4137498	4465752	4674571	4993152	4795222	4955026	5666659	2741450	2180339	2557056	1683468	1665872	1226234	1328634	1257584	2468192	1419674	2135648	1060741	472017	936910	810938	518155
Hg	2C1	13622577	12848515	12488682	12342219	12715470	12810478	12099375	12946088	12229170	12502067	13040595	12549398	12164496	11869047	11841387	11401818	11937667	11950413	11179297	6950518	8433449	8898949	7707522	7699818	7789933	7423259	7069044	7605496	8027301	7450110
Hg	2C6	4274941	4358898	4413121	4617892	4302633	4466610	4012565	3570144	2974661	1873629	2199353	2222491	1679992	1319640	1232339	994745	976632	1051079	1027693	920059	857071	919348	1037210	1036992	983787	944259	908846	874265	862517	917545
Hg	2C7c	5468551	4732718	5079531	4852306	4104934	3490515	2958391	2325550	1762563	1330467	962410	907154	850966	852218	744992	704091	604983	508600	494220	323677	369572	397908	374652	360413	318299	273489	344132	471192	394434	543226
Hg	5C1a	10520416	9968057	9171154	3121608	2815624	2565575	2333698	1478110	895130	665938	586360	363286	273366	288999	82980	81829	51111	30097	41569	51475	22915	30911	17521	19383	12177	11148	10026	7696	8654	6490
Hg	5C1bv	1158517	1203184	1239944	1325156	1340525	1422080	1474713	1515417	1534149	1572258	1600397	1594473	1663474	1704907	1701992	1775998	1798629	1815076	1873340	1768823	1723786	1465438	1442009	1408664	1442781	1510611	1502297	1522807	1571037	1560316

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3bi	238182	220580	210944	195656	181047	167926	161653	154237	140209	122346	92519	92439	92819	92645	93716	93400	94957	95192	97270	96432	93964	87104	80059	74578	71068	66932	63286	59738	54753	51439
DIOX	2C1	878173	807293	738991	713639	704178	687597	637069	640293	590283	462563	467015	439035	414931	406613	437392	419140	422727	402598	375051	263855	326858	323823	303438	284299	299730	309503	293140	289383	295352	289960
DIOX	3F	583802	981163	557958	533928	606173	689567	593174	801265	639318	719775	398703	721375	674451	454411	797641	808768	700465	719749	741319	724322	714625	733511	614075	621687	655050	628249	629290	617451	584667	551884
HCB	1A2b	1298095905	1318256214	1344291081	555972150	2935138	3140035	3080389	2954130	2410260	338606	242258	275177	267271	259996	243856	242591	247847	243969	255612	238764	213110	211719	177564	14097	5717	5617	5019	4504	4992	5266
HCB	1A2f	1354288	1329100	1298972	1187967	1260312	1182321	1182045	1193400	1224295	1158927	1204222	1208888	1242321	1248079	1292899	1326439	1363970	1354138	1270540	1029993	1013212	990096	25069247	103253092	108716222	899840	883439	870417	892747	887121
HCB	2A1	8678968	8771596	9382805	9299278	9631128	9280588	8587978	9049326	9010432	8873443	9350757	8938601	8380430	7834731	7741653	8376417	8717300	8659831	8377683	7604792	7136119	6049670	6007315	2508359	2857464	942237	553899	29327703	1260915	497392
HCB	2B10a	965644072	841326911	653126010	633017064	388776064	342744498	328850882	291426873	316049655	263704113	258630026	210439800	209283314	235889489	162786629	180405532	69950187	83058644	55302092	36908902	5410000	20543000	3081000	11826873	14895895	10262239	52077275	25882018	24013000	15473000
HCB	2C1	22878528	20953614	16642239	16130575	13809943	16035418	14071084	15218688	15997717	16230580	16107055	16967322	14947864	14986221	14317826	14168931	13773647	13944338	14009559	6262291	8936872	25179095	14412131	7277006	7319307	7172092	6895112	8611625	6858302	7051538
HCB	2C3	5591588789	5554555227	5914785893	5880188413	6559873757	6708212790	6744921625	6906510962	7415718394	3102641951	3377859249	3547855007	270287154	68823494	11009127	9182194	13617983	10896022	9671621	10147890	11796320	12904306	11434154	8010907	6153874	3218439	3082669	4538739	3763683	6733492
HCB	3Df	550944872	545126758	455869566	418889474	408976924	402259807	390175490	456385689	520615824	402104144	110346076	73320773	87261595	75775188	88083813	71207236	67804080	57931299	67436861	61180085	70000221	60837597	56053704	48119109	63138207	61466805	70602113	77415020	71999925	76902275
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8947626003	8759421374	8830941679	7961534208	7835648064	7906769580	7863320170	7962746578	8450528776	3940081174	3983660027	4088397179	746636972	567623853	429388906	421017541	308754006	302185169	277990643	240125566	219336622	234863410	232347930	290739900	312967735	192126203	244350037	261768822	222376126	218129595
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	8774967861	8586676464	8658273174	7960900317	7835079054	7906193964	7862765980	7962263677	8450010029	3939587073	3983176311	4087879197	746119083	567080546	428849315	420465328	308215300	301677861	277471727	239619515	218813315	234409545	231877429	290253813	312538100	191682223	243885153	261308654	221927622	217670277
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	8947568606	8759299468	8830868007	7961480019	7835615990	7906742235	7863287791	7962732918	8450483353	3940053507	3983621797	4088342002	746560983	567534759	429300218	420925861	308683786	302117419	277929348	240064393	219268580	234807720	232290582	290667401	312904658	192063264	244289741	261708278	222318623	218074256
PCB	2C1	1216103905	1069218159	1036944463	1029912138	1018004149	1027462921	924725034	980797064	927221120	729922567	741638748	700757796	653953723	642738624	672753821	632575534	669224413	674326228	650171269	427709645	517025977	527163433	474865532	460978451	466817630	454167080	429283581	451702598	453082704	427476124
PCB	2C5	827815652	849902078	868939172	678663789	669370577	612360282	528668855	603088147	566911287	415775368	362173753	282541492	220014071	147180714	36908139	23576322	28175379	32528997	60996001	63688143	89617756	95170439	75004289	46778641	27192960	34013995	38757519	47414742	61625031	60466746
PCB	2C6	269782908	321799891	359095504	387520139	397195154	322744891	331662532	300355933	254104542	206180431	178829540	152931573	118932703	62175376	27842500	4641790	4723863	4391152	4361884	2990297	3395978	3954951	3745812	3831233	3650591	5843536	5067684	2012799	2379892	556025
PCB	5E	395875682	395907731	399747197	397695624	395300251	400882710	389536604	373875820	357083084	859255994	865364480	750871218	664688131	578548727	462311604	377609378	320365470	249980564	202841188	163854687	134129571	123592703	110734315	101462632	93052836	90611754	84803075	81881956	79285055	75689441