Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: WEST Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2gviii	568037	557162	468491	411050	373837	366538	366691	352502	335941	315897	307436	309383	277819	278526	273302	299329	277047	278904	265676	244196	259855	236875	226419	221527	217167	216496	224398	228110	222683
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	19050400	18274488	17613748	16904553	15687038	15169296	14955874	14437459	13922816	13187839	12447490	11969622	11440396	11035796	10650461	9104658	9744395	9386344	8946390	8325113	8015256	7604250	7431709	7145521	6944628	6892647	6834357	6887124	6747831
SOx	11A	8326822	5118907	6735719	6225830	5614400	5266208	5889015	6738567	6362612	6000029	5745709	4278487	5300254	3555820	2700723	1204448	1308459	840384	972791	949909	1070366	1943444	943444	943444	11823191	2069754	943444	943444	943444
SOx	1A2a	607938	563593	470577	443022	438410	459817	415282	403257	339179	267835	273825	203669	194671	192329	199184	192244	184516	171776	154318	103216	119145	147975	123696	99598	98473	98940	89966	93743	93836
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	26126050	23295874	21242977	20159396	18627876	17074628	15906415	14571462	13366117	11627081	10670826	10219789	9734386	9327778	8796101	8286517	8045031	7658626	6019620	5057092	4752913	4721635	4239860	3754901	3390636	3222542	2768146	2709278	2524691
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	25496276	23169089	21140247	20062637	18539203	16985634	15816114	14490004	13280291	11545562	10567454	10116058	9626764	9214503	8698057	8207930	7966414	7581057	5944392	5000567	4683625	4642445	4199406	3714303	3346647	3181937	2723814	2665557	2507611
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	25541280	23214342	21183772	20101153	18575280	17021704	15849898	14521298	13313883	11576696	10596763	10146731	9655658	9243890	8729080	8239313	7997183	7609614	5973497	5027875	4710365	4666192	4223387	3736505	3366369	3199846	2741671	2682893	2524610

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
BC	1A3dii	7126	7096	7061	7114	6955	6083706	4058591	2031058	6082521	2030521	8109238	6081696	6081583	5546279	3699511	3699404	1850861	4298	4425

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2a	260129235	243237907	224412415	198973857	214146115	225844141	206371936	172446893	149108431	128659517	126986476	120611165	114481084	127391126	122820838	129104796	128792724	126933233	113422066	68956764	95875300	94956002	88059366	79570973	83755807	66759317	64514567	62000173	58548003
Pb	1A2b	194600759	190902364	179628084	221584102	220502876	229146425	260828546	194530009	201369773	191474694	188445544	175671978	130922826	125729570	128144653	106419258	104119597	97775207	170657907	73821668	57786655	61351151	63850505	67033466	75028003	67341271	59573544	65842500	67215989
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	854096402	724287331	626462768	507933712	413395161	315497219	244030973	193522479	145587797	106979246	29572530	28554535	26927208	24967576	15881182	3593389	3504005	3423186	3364487	3273306	3201852	3102172	2992051	2884055	2787341	2697527	2603382	2561498	2555475
Pb	2C5	208367783	176998963	192179029	186050466	179075983	190820816	196653923	208136008	220985946	167289028	143022021	115283152	109769801	86557940	62995749	43432300	46157414	53624461	56489710	53003457	59707666	56381910	63220397	61208599	59902950	48791573	45746757	44269535	45013628
Cd	1A2a	6238401	5949173	5361200	5256011	5420317	5558337	5042959	5277194	4956035	4572499	4457362	4191635	4194248	4334808	4096489	4168008	3854916	3897868	3957936	2333474	2923356	3072268	2868991	2601042	2765220	2350657	2511115	2376507	2055049
Cd	1A2b	7251735	7574034	7068577	6842519	6757836	6130616	6672443	6569162	5893536	5211795	5984050	5450394	3744958	2721452	2982406	2402788	2346983	1913866	2121908	1351138	1190318	1098550	1073951	1138982	1985081	1025958	1206257	1156923	1255551
Cd	1A2gvii	98464	94387	98251	94292	96946	97034	101702	99833	101744	100090	101970	104041	105912	107260	111715	111710	114725	119916	114775	96449	94821	86915	95523	81706	83951	90182	7488763	7493252	93331
Cd	1A2gviii	7859684	6840779	5025678	4174978	4825163	3805505	2906148	2751534	2681606	2284888	1746742	1777960	1798581	1960992	2034071	2045475	1914746	2027815	1922071	1916238	2167724	2156779	2069717	2100101	2277191	2494049	2552808	2801906	2823027
Cd	2C1	28013802	24174827	22041846	21381604	22712059	23132496	21572048	22812084	21628380	19888499	20932533	19731205	18754418	16681865	15476028	13518878	13883624	13227864	12358905	8748215	10495572	10539305	8992353	8742778	8942406	8993579	9168097	9218365	8915065
Cd	2C6	5437261	5487506	5280423	5061439	4023762	5177966	4766032	4142923	3015803	3124815	2472221	2206935	2346904	1577575	1376258	1193101	1189698	1233195	1171204	994323	1045749	1160141	1223618	1237302	1629645	1530541	1330002	1487687	3366878
Cd	2C7c	9211371	5927875	6151128	6233685	3591536	3467496	2327488	3061280	1509595	1243429	640755	1114488	592183	596645	669084	629157	458362	378716	331961	233534	255207	259370	265567	209913	250666	222361	199215	202981	211280
Cd	2G	5937294	6136810	6081382	6167549	6222285	6222004	6549813	6424735	6360386	7306239	5219049	5998682	5649130	5734955	5824789	5444955	5378995	5364395	5198890	5207179	4896559	4984798	4624418	4433090	4423623	4523813	4308110	4175497	4195387
Cd	3F	12577454	12335735	10192856	8488459	7604967	6484551	9195042	8668958	9281854	8309180	4436931	2379351	2443785	2311052	1749691	1590866	1323635	1265285	1335268	1289759	1265864	1360289	1353175	1299716	1409243	1424983	1250864	1337474	1305839
Cd	5C1a	9925882	9891790	9306709	2856970	2519960	2100220	1520359	1085289	894625	668218	656227	358865	265704	159542	82215	59988	28825	34299	46048	27119	39163	11050	10924	17776	9475	9999	16903	19504	24156
Hg	1A1c	8611948	6241901	4755638	3916325	3402277	2750987	2736250	2508733	2368020	2108864	2035191	1992663	1888696	2079156	2028033	1712457	1564162	1546980	1403812	991778	1332458	1452530	1141277	1067548	727122	838732	1053791	818393	816716
Hg	1A2a	3716413	3858931	3242019	2807714	3118097	3445265	3158137	3174155	2856730	2379593	2419943	2160871	2198134	2306010	2443629	2549509	2627091	2585507	2206482	1451399	1890763	2045356	1912728	1706306	1632732	1530943	1480427	1490414	1583167
Hg	1A2b	4101946	4407052	4468791	4456762	4311259	4457626	4598613	4608980	4197788	3592406	3797479	3639094	3794621	1935590	1775090	1113968	1084313	1097755	1455245	1297473	927204	929093	830376	979725	1127496	948941	989199	901253	955493
Hg	1A2gvii	40918	39832	39234	39517	40008	41272	41107	41023	42237	42343	41964	42590	42575	41963	43965	42912	43946	44685	43513	35806	35473	33105	37497	31766	32762	35997	7435309	7437150	36523
Hg	1A2gviii	7844786	5171310	3926182	2988321	2492738	2549459	2261075	2206867	1933293	1834119	1608402	1441003	1427277	1381528	1250114	1286698	1293344	1298115	1405923	1276259	1388145	1249194	1271164	1568434	1455184	1332969	1350403	1272551	1180284
Hg	1A3dii	4399853	4209729	4666505	4869201	4760663	3620811	3320093	2492893	2111930	1607285	1433124	1345637	1053292	1140583	1466727	1775339	1490840	1447932	1228287	1485240	1547056	1717780	1545921	1575347	1713274	1870305	1586914	1459912	1364529
Hg	1B2d	3396904	3355195	3647080	3865818	3615459	3638703	3986144	4137498	4465752	4674571	4993152	4795222	4955026	5666659	2741450	2180339	2557056	1683468	1665872	1226234	1328634	1257584	2468192	1419674	2135648	1060741	472017	936910	810938
Hg	2C1	13968185	13087921	12670649	12612307	13018500	13102674	12352973	13201642	12509620	12802951	13347297	12877198	12532999	12379278	12372881	11919501	12521688	12542808	11715540	7402225	9095603	9528945	8342217	8369168	8447753	8070755	7738829	8337455	8618651
Hg	2C6	4267356	4354422	4411528	4616641	4301958	4465881	4012130	3569865	2973915	1873074	2198956	2222031	1679413	1319126	1231800	994159	975684	1050545	1026965	919437	856556	918889	1036658	1036604	983359	943899	908342	873803	861930
Hg	2C7c	5475969	4740273	5082952	4851539	4104132	3489674	2957578	2324508	1761821	1329190	960235	905979	850209	850042	743147	701170	599796	505297	477868	304234	350890	379062	370128	359430	316134	271742	332779	330942	403690
Hg	5C1a	10566590	9977898	9147260	3120890	2814233	2554608	2331116	1495936	920498	699824	667037	372966	364070	320896	95129	104907	92403	71283	66008	76142	47544	45044	31032	43515	17884	25090	25094	34164	52239

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	11B	24001	8746	19888	29204	13136	9120	10511	16352	19459	11688	42382	13929	9066	38189	12807	6884	6629	361055	44181	10462	6772	142616	19435	4195	6089	8757	8751	45622	44582
DIOX	1A3bi	242656	226635	216650	203762	189249	175596	169626	162744	149896	132682	103094	103327	104432	105720	114081	112923	110927	112152	117582	97129	93360	87194	79366	74182	70862	67122	63879	60178	55365
DIOX	2C1	896256	818671	743746	725255	727886	709858	649183	653623	606518	476041	478976	415890	394115	386908	418079	400843	407010	388344	361338	257990	317937	310828	289478	271343	281183	290705	275409	271650	279576
HCB	11B	142718	74746	283945	223603	150818	178982	226268	104918	214761	72274	1369427	238512	146238	1213171	329434	36442	41709	15780168	1713821	130297	86285	6327763	35073	14188	23046	24598	21410	22838	22968
HCB	1A2b	1298096268	1318257004	1344288805	555969881	2933429	3137929	3078112	2952040	2408052	336400	240023	273172	265607	259995	243856	242591	247770	243897	255481	238688	213092	211701	177549	14082	5717	5602	5003	4491	5137
HCB	1A2f	1348619	1326904	1295684	1184344	1256590	1172098	1173015	1182663	1208129	1135018	1186920	1193166	1233697	1238734	1284845	1318662	1358205	1345977	1263685	1020669	1007279	976582	25059055	103241146	108703429	886209	873014	858378	880717
HCB	2A1	8679378	8772196	9383325	9299658	9631128	9280588	8587978	9049326	9010432	8873443	9350757	8938601	8380430	7834731	7741653	8376417	8717300	8659831	8377683	7604792	7136119	6049670	6007315	2508359	2857464	942237	553899	29327703	1260915
HCB	2B10a	965644072	841326911	653126010	633017064	388776064	342744498	328850882	291426873	316049655	263704113	258630026	210439800	209283314	235889489	162786629	180405532	69950187	83058644	55302092	36908902	5410000	20543000	3081000	11870000	14970000	10360000	52353000	26187000	24013000
HCB	2C1	21979165	20056065	15808501	15368659	12999278	15196259	13248720	14351426	15137092	15437811	15275423	16167863	14192504	14211383	13514384	13346437	12947317	13084068	13153550	5671208	8200808	24407511	13678753	6556723	6570971	6406634	6268769	7965957	6243544
HCB	2C3	5341588789	5229555227	5514785893	5405188413	6009873757	6083195487	6127659668	6316239647	6904568332	2731774372	3016992183	3246109841	154984318	159342285	59811012	115135293	135761193	100267948	126126178	104992253	121791567	124493298	139759044	119026267	88590498	89495611	50022250	61468883	60468160
HCB	2C7c	59384289	49835491	34026934	14304090	2486046	13464942	18818741	32708876	27499215	10655646	24322297	21051716	8910263	8974755	13231074	12482763	13489680	17640131	11684607	3496081446	10282684	9652632	55246	50541	53543	56829	72884	70010	67307
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8646065694	8372171946	8351240067	7386847578	7168638229	7175117169	7179613393	7297250203	7821379997	3499518732	3657564774	3821801076	649954371	676992986	500267805	549997642	457955651	422281476	421257009	3852742043	365536760	377464220	382186380	419662155	407239064	291926919	306237774	328126168	287399991
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	8414087409	8149668422	8144694014	7372079220	7165719191	7161231428	7160360357	7264158633	7793470727	3488478756	3632865557	3800343302	640630281	667569327	486583634	537036553	444003302	404181196	409099751	356174386	354819356	367427085	381735233	419183170	406802442	291477934	305772090	327668958	286968404
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	8586420907	8322011982	8317028392	7372407935	7166030926	7161552952	7160695898	7264470544	7793791913	3488802246	3633187070	3800682728	640962029	667913228	486932130	537397410	444378247	404539405	409474799	356547193	355208514	367778969	382115891	419573062	407159479	291846735	306161775	328052163	287342122
PCB	2C1	1208002527	1059702621	1026279584	1021727758	1009910031	1019562284	917651941	973473832	920806001	722752402	734286698	693376610	645796827	633615291	664857728	624500557	666822008	672187106	649084995	426906528	513928556	524833972	473412140	457982136	462606033	449919336	424456514	446919589	449903528
PCB	2C5	827815652	849902078	868939172	678663789	669370577	612360282	528668855	603088147	566911287	415775368	362173735	282541474	220014053	147180696	36908121	23605688	28205558	32562830	61031104	63721837	89656052	95208946	75047633	46821739	27246616	34059515	38796863	47457022	61669911
PCB	2C6	269782890	321799880	359095500	387520136	397195152	322744890	331662531	300355932	254104540	206180430	178829539	152931572	118932701	62175375	27842499	4641788	4723861	4391150	4361882	2990295	3395977	3954949	3745811	3831232	3650590	5843535	5067683	2012797	2379889
PCB	5E	395796617	395835769	399685016	397635678	395252220	400838680	389647897	373985369	357209739	859374366	865564846	751013408	666947875	580960315	462839910	377362348	321159943	250686354	208311606	168457477	132719977	122813086	112726950	100685228	92151476	89712273	83542281	80554124	77831474