Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: US Submission year: 2024

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2022
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2022
PMs: 2000 - 2022

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	139878000	133475000	127821000	123289000	121165000	115012000	116900000	106968000	104673000	103912000	103844000	96401000	84803512	80730118	76651059	73161908	70704493	68247078	61195150	54933000	55857000	55394000	53609000	51825000	50040000	46065000	46692000	45017000	41392543	40551856	40415000	39504000	39008000

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL		21266100	19452556	19372836	19289344	18594439	18684806	18775174	18508693	18163000	17822000	17597000	16918000	16239000	15545000	15545000	15533000	15519000	13755640	13749995	13075000	8933000	11850000
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE										18163000	17822000	17597000	16918000	16239000	15545000	15545000	15533000	15519000	13755640	13749995	13075000	8933000	11850000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1450000000									4835000000			907200000			988000000			1128000000			1170000000			1436000000