Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: US      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
CONATIONALTOTAL1398780001334750001278210001232890001211650001150120001169000001069680001046730001039120001038440009640100084803512807301187665105973161908707044936824707861195150549330005585700055394000536090005182500050040000460650004669200045017000413925434055185640415000

POP (Unit = mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
HCBNATIONALTOTAL1450000000        4835000000  907200000  988000000  1128000000  1170000000  1436000000