Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: UA      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	3Da2a															6					3	6		1	0	0	0	0	8	5	9	38016	37909
NMVOC	1A2a															168	149	119	132	101	29	41	44	29	15	10	3	4	4	4	13857	13630	1202
NMVOC	1A4bi															212	191	154	114	68	57	51	22	26	14	9	96	75	145	114	55807	51722
NMVOC	3B4giv	14276	14452	11557	10161	9292	8755	8255	8035	8629	8621	8437	8972	9472	8600	8751	8374	8999	8797	7705	7829	8476	8403	8000	8547	8143	7523	7440	7485	7977	7612	7366	6626
NMVOC	6A															72	58	13	10	10	8	5	22	6	4	5	4	4	4	10	12	6810	5961
NH3	3B4giv	15560	15778	12133	10655	9534	8930	8360	8169	8777	8719	8511	9044	9522	8656	8846	8716	9384	9392	8222	8660	9420	9302	8968	9861	9393	8480	8652	8743	9412	8930	8741	7797

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A1c					1447	1545	1562	1626	1858	1042	885	948	792	686	99	170	50	68	108	54941	51125
PM2.5	1A2a					55	109	72	106	97	28	58	28	25	23	23	21	23	22	24	12850	12536	424
PM2.5	1A4bi					928	1020	749	362	121	151	114	116	94	151	52	63	36	43	133	64965	61968
PM2.5	2C1					2173	2116	1033	1146	814	211	132	85	224	200	103	3335	3104	56	105	6594	6348	479
PM2.5	3B4h	23	24	25	22	22	23	22	22	23	24	23	24	24	24	23	21	21	21	20	20	19	1211
PM2.5	6A										0	0					1	2	1	1	1	1200	1017
PM10	1A2a					249	348	284	351	342	378	399	178	130	103	202	106	183	173	191	13902	13560	4272
PM10	6A								2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0			0	1	2	4716	4986
BC	1A2a					10	1	3	182	4	19	21	18	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	866	854
BC	1A4ci					56	99	74	93	76	64	65	62	22	33	16	36	38	52	164	614	506
BC	1B2aiv					245	212	233	230	300	364	326	215	185	102	20	1	1	1	0	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1c															4081000	2168000	2854000	2626000	1790000	1204000	997000	1126000	996000	842000	440000	596000	567000	408000	269000	27969730	26027230
Pb	1A2a															368000	368000	267000	21182000	17276000	14621000	17695000	7145000	6223000	1864000	2669000	4796000	5025000	3740000	2907000	15668200	15231370	3924000
Pb	1A2f															4301000	4242000	5408000	5605000	7653000	4851000	2676000	3392000	2243000	2316000	734000	819000	858000	862000	943000	4485910	4194860
Pb	1A2gviii															4784000	1537000	1665000	1850000	1438000	1062000	985000	857000	980000	663000	416000	307000	368000	436000	248000	391080	124630
Pb	2A3	1493940	1492090	1461610	1420950	1371840	1358630	772600	742410	735710	739040	739430	2543450	2556100	2518360	2521740	2519360	2773640	3122990	3474220	2665000	3199800	4002260	3795840	3757130	3665200	3275460	3421480	2336170	3092620	3332590	3227710	1151000
Pb	2C5															17276000	10697000	10639000	10041000	4232000	2653000	1821000	1517000	879000	532000	438000	723000	803000	788000	785000	51980	52670	730000
Cd	1A1a	1496650	1377540	1661160	1570820	1350190	1412010	1045700	1159980	869590	873100	782840	836650	845570	732620	790320	916320	1105160	1141760	1126310	1072790	1109290	1200780	1288040	1270810	1197140	1067390	1577050	1270920	1364060	1315170	1250310	8000
Cd	1A1c															110000	63000	72000	148000	67000	38000	21000	25000	19000	22000	1000					1598270	1487270
Cd	1A2a															3000	4000	18000	196000	139000	117000	140000	156000	252000	269000	375000	851000	850000	781000	595000	214510	213950	648000
Cd	1A2f															159000	151000	156000	167000	582000	162000	43000	247000	67000	94000	325000	512000	443000	37000	108000	68370	63780
Cd	1A2gviii															673000	452000	442000	631000	556000	719000	182000	251000	664000	246000	166000	130000	72000	92000	241000	26850	18830
Cd	1A4ai															3000	1000			8000	8000	1000		1000			177000	179000	3000	5000	72740	58590	11000
Cd	1A4bi															4000	4000										1000				1037970	1041470
Cd	1B1b															60000	182000	176000	181000	257000	198000	205000	139000	110000	55000	36000	37000	36000	39000	38000	36000	3000	3000
Cd	2A6															107000	150000	101000	17000	14000	4000	11000	44000	107000	47000	10000	10000	11000	11000	3000	2000
Cd	2C1															951000	1689000	2117000	2194000	1646000	1202000	1408000	1395000	889000	1210000	2159000	2101000	2161000	1485000	1660000	941970	906800	299000
Cd	2C7a															2000	2000	3000	2000	2000	2000	2000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000			248060	16070
Cd	2C7d															4000	2000	20000	1000	163000	44000	23000	179000	187000	187000	19000	32000	24000	20000	35000	20000	21000	19000
Cd	2D3b															603000	1000		4000		2000	2000	1000
Cd	5C1a															496000	662000	839000	889000	903000	121000	112000	93000	4000	80000	10000	26000	21000	19000	25000	22000	13000	10000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1586520	1467090	1745530	1648280	1419300	1478880	1090790	1199940	908410	912480	822290	951830	962900	843530	4216810	4540400	5378320	5850690	5720040	4083610	3650170	3987820	3933400	3766580	4555010	5203180	5634840	3971940	4307050	6202020	6046740	2448000
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1586520	1467090	1745530	1648280	1419300	1478880	1090790	1199940	908410	912480	822290	951830	962900	843530	4216810	4540400	5378320	5850690	5720040	4083610	3650170	3987820	3933400	3766580	4555010	5203180	5634840	3971940	4307050	6202020	6046740	2448000
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1586520	1467090	1745530	1648280	1419300	1478880	1090790	1199940	908410	912480	822290	951830	962900	843530	4216810	4540400	5378320	5850690	5720040	4083610	3650170	3987820	3933400	3766580	4555010	5203180	5634840	3971940	4307050	6202020	6046740	2448000
Hg	1A1c															451000	330000	153000	230000	154000	172000	112000	109000	127000	115000	20000	13000	19000	8000	6000	29967570	27886320
Hg	1A2a																					1000	52000	125000	136000	145000	426000	446000	449000	368000	1001090	973810	832000
Hg	1A2f															110000	67000	74000	82000	93000	28000	787000	476000	108000	76000	40000	42000	57000	65000	81000	274060	259430
Hg	1A2gviii															264000	446000	384000	494000	437000	371000	341000	316000	256000	297000	239000	250000	398000	1174000	1155000	33300	18230
Hg	1A4ai															111000	151000	55000	20000	51000	17000	20000	1017000	15000	8000	6000	15000	13000	23000	21000	218730	177820	40000
Hg	1A4bi															1597000	17000	10000	15000	10000	11000	5000	8000	4000	4000	5000	7000	9000	11000	21000	165250	112690
Hg	2C1															75000	103000	620000	667000	705000	361000	375000	391000	332000	269000	301000	311000	3195000	1348000	1234000	4709870	4534000	66000
Hg	5C1a															557000	697000	853000	944000	970000	272000	236000	114000	24000		2000	2000
Hg	6A																										1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	588000	483000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	5780010	5528420	7066240	6862290	6063900	6374170	4582140	5358780	2968460	3099880	2815020	3166520	3276870	2694670	6648080	5798520	6759100	7241000	7209960	5387740	6282770	7170220	6031240	5810720	5247300	4916830	8634470	7492540	7502460	40859300	38418830	4331000
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	5780010	5528420	7066240	6862290	6063900	6374170	4582140	5358780	2968460	3099880	2815020	3166520	3276870	2694670	6648080	5798520	6759100	7241000	7209960	5387740	6282770	7170220	6031240	5810720	5247300	4916830	8634470	7492540	7502460	40859300	38418830	4331000
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	5780010	5528420	7066240	6862290	6063900	6374170	4582140	5358780	2968460	3099880	2815020	3166520	3276870	2694670	6648080	5798520	6759100	7241000	7209960	5387740	6282770	7170220	6031240	5810720	5247300	4916830	8634470	7492540	7502460	40859300	38418830	4331000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2825980	2669100	3497220	3412220	3027190	3185990	2273710	2686010	1522660	1615830	1469000	1638960	1700790	1403470	11401598980	361907080	82317680	2395300	2382630	2078950	2224030	40409880	36601810	38537690	34334630	31976920	38430360	34263930	33415000	26225830	4045790
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2825980	2669100	3497220	3412220	3027190	3185990	2273710	2686010	1522660	1615830	1469000	1638960	1700790	1403470	11401598980	361907080	82317680	2395300	2382630	2078950	2224030	40409880	36601810	38537690	34334630	31976920	38430360	34263930	33415000	26225830	4045790
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2825980	2669100	3497220	3412220	3027190	3185990	2273710	2686010	1522660	1615830	1469000	1638960	1700790	1403470	11401598980	361907080	82317680	2395300	2382630	2078950	2224030	40409880	36601810	38537690	34334630	31976920	38430360	34263930	33415000	26225830	4045790