Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: UA      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4cii													1121	757	509	524	777	504	992	2	50196	50196	50196	56007
NOx	2B10a													6681	8307	7748	8744	6785	116766	3117	1296	687	687	687	767	657	657	657	534	534
NOx	2L													6074	11409	15816	16541	4444	2167	19	13	9	9	9	10	9	9	9	9	9
NMVOC	1A1a													2084	12046	5115	4903	1133	1052	1138	604	144	144	144	93	2500	1500	1400	28100	25290	32786
NMVOC	1A1b													2386	3165	31124	15407	11771	13192	14207	12004	22	22	22	14	11	11	11	9	9	130
NMVOC	1A1c													116	627	708	2756	3407	25843	20616	668	990	990	990	637	315	315	315	336	302	540
NMVOC	1A2a																			22017	1043	41	41	41	26	6384	5384	5384	4372	3935	11440
NMVOC	1A4bi													3024	5613	21	684	1879	12782	4194	4066	51	51	51	33	18909	14909	14909	14909	14909	54750
NMVOC	1B2ai													15349	24084	12348	37513	32578	28908	20	806	1660	1660	1660	1068	916	916	916	916	916	741
NMVOC	2B1																			154	93	9	9	23731	15271	269	269	269	207	207
NMVOC	2L													16984	22404	22513	22618	7712	4742	46	4	22	22	22	14	12	12	12	12	12
NMVOC	3B1b																				4	57	57	57	37	33	33	33	33	33	54520
SOx	2B10a													18270	9038	4624	12905	12252	4869	9760	2359	13285	13285	24223	25720	22046	22046	22046	17924	17924
SOx	2C7c													77276	76259	72213	86889	90976	90660	27157	16094	108	108	108	114	98	98	98	97	97	240
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2783000	2538000	2376000	2194000	1715000	1639000	1293000	1132400	1028100	1028700	2310000	1844350	1329486	1251884	1047816	1192369	1445632	1363444	1385937	1289602	1215873	1319883	1338738	1421500	921972	853972	947527	274257	246831	821290
NH3	1A1a													97	144	283	153	158	178	513	384	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	941	847	1424
NH3	1A3bi													0	5	3	2	579	12	464	8	0	0	0	0				895	895
NH3	1A4bi													545			5	9204	6140	34	7438	28	28	28	25	22	22	22	22	22	5450
NH3	1A4ci																			13172	17559	20	20	20	18	16	16	16	16	16
NH3	1A4cii													444	29584	12331	6735	12067	10237			0	0	0	0
NH3	2A6													1		5	10930	2	2	4	10	11	11	11	10	8	8	8	6	6	13
NH3	3B4d																			83	7847										920
NH3	3B4e																			1294	1160	44	44	44	40	36	36	36	36	36	37230
NH3	3Da1													50	89	1072	1337		22	14270	15451	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	60
NH3	6A													128	84	1	1103	1	10332												81
CO	1A3ai(i)													101854	107885	1765	344799			757	125
CO	1A3ai(ii)													216208	250995	71	141356			1120	806
CO	1A3aii(i)													26524	46950	311	74317	2413	79088	2095	144	3335	3335	3335	3172	389	389	389	389	389	319200
CO	1A4bii																				1	1350045	1350045	1350045	1284225

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A1a			3		4343	57646					29328	29328	29328	29328	28562	28562	31764	36016	32415	42282
PM2.5	1A1c			0		2270	10792					885	885	885	885	692	692	832	889	889	37060
PM2.5	1A2a											58	58	58	58	42	42	46	38	38	11760
PM2.5	1A2gviii			3		554	3064					2856	2856	2856	2856	1679	1679	1839	2464	2464	2410
PM2.5	1A3bi			2		174	400												1316	1316	890
PM2.5	1A4ai			4		208	2461					673	673	673	673	546	546	615	615	615	3010
PM2.5	1A4bi						27711					114	114	114	114	99	99	119	119	119	64090
PM2.5	2A2											1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1741	1741	880
PM2.5	2C1											132	132	132	132	113	113	116	100	100	5730
PM2.5	2C7c			0		2045	14155					79	79	79	79	68	68	75	75	75
PM2.5	2L			0		4139	4548					1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	2A2											68	68	68	68	58	58	65	8704	8704	4480
PM10	2C7c			3		10578	9499					1206	1206	1206	1206	1033	1033	1173	1165	1165
PM10	2L			81		15804	11137					1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A1a			332026	319015	312410	327722	347608670	306243	326930	289260	292128	292128	292128	287832	280313	180313	215043	49227	44304	49717
TSP	1A1c			30134	41085	33291	36194	28963919	21288	30385	22559	14149	14149	14149	13941	10907	10907	13469	14385	14385	55260
TSP	1A2e									137855	2493										410
TSP	1A2gviii			40170	45454	49438	49883	46017519	76736	10646	7293	38104	38104	38104	37544	22064	22064	24321	32591	32591	2580
TSP	1A3bi			9039	10764	9742	7837	8751961	23400	10071	14809								1316	1316	890
TSP	1A3c			2831	3666	4106	4429	7728153	5614	23048	17887										260
TSP	1A4ai			79171	54544	8706	8179	14728611	13486	37490	4375	4549	4549	4549	4482	3638	3638	4418	4418	4418	3430
TSP	1A4bi			108503	93484	96588	70353	64513181	61347	62907	16353	7876	7876	7876	7760	6733	6733	7213	7213	7213	69470
TSP	1A4ci									182254	2408	645	645	645	635	572	572	652	652	652	1400
TSP	2A2									236	192	116	116	116	114	98	98	151	22383	22383	11380
TSP	2A6			36916	29739	9759	13711	20762095	11373	1686	2319	5304	5304	5304	5226	3954	3954	4244	3276	3276	8352
TSP	2C7c			143855	146911	134423	199291	200519120	192209	30456	12698	2343	2343	2343	2309	1979	1979	2039	2025	2025	150
TSP	2H2									8508	4203	9165	9165	9165	9031	9150	9150	9815	10816	10816
TSP	2L			6781	17123	29605	29920	20190058	16176	29	9	11	11	11	11	10	10	16	16	16
TSP	3B4gi									103982	219										250
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL		867478	825946	796379	723426	775380	785178498	752923	1094056	560690	562067	562067	562067	553800	496786	376786	429730	282624	254362	299096

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1c													816000	2911400	4385000	2716850		3167000	2155800	1455300	997000	997000	997000	626551	490171	490171	990171	1057502	1057502	18870000
Pb	1A2gviii													3315690	1328830	3928000	5554828	4921340	26938632	2830053	2397053	3661000	3661000	3661000	2300707	1352108	1352108	1352108	1811824	1811824	680000
Pb	1A4ai													18692900	5843149	814000	444500	711721	404821	269021	208217	147000	147000	147000	92380	74982	74982	77989	77989	77989	3310000
Pb	1A4bi													24815908	12206112	9694000	8169135	9054656	7777713	7711118	3982728	1750000	1750000	1750000	1099764	954143	954143	1838761	1838761	1838761	4100000
Pb	2C7c													23985820	24086190	77544000	181859000	206369330	196585800	23008013	15536003	331000	331000	331000	208013	178296	178296	217856	216331	216331
Pb	2L													33400	13027780	16961000	9944212	297704	273349			205000	205000	205000	128830	110425	110425	238755	238755	238755
Cd	1A1a													14100	26800000	505000	230032	437084	227476	235120	224000	254000	254000	254000	254000	247365	247365	265438	1697871	1528084	1315759
Cd	1A1c													36058	69850	77000	52000		154500	105250	58130	21000	21000	21000	21000	16429	16429	16429	17546	17546	1080000
Cd	1A2a																			491000	350000	140000	140000	140000	140000	102021	102021	102021	82841	82841	190000
Cd	1A2gviii													24100	82694	739000	249666	389071	313055	59000	132000	225000	225000	225000	225000	132231	132231	132231	177189	177189	180000
Cd	1A3bi													1202531	691255		3402460	107604	3493900	3550749	2027617								409	409
Cd	1A3biii																			380000	3000								79	79
Cd	1A4bi													32004			64977	65558	25809	47352	78355										1030000
Cd	1B1b																			962000	198000	205000	205000	205000	205000	175714	175714	195865	175495	175495	36000
Cd	2C1																			1131000	828000	1408000	1408000	1408000	1408000	1206857	1206857	1206857	1041518	1041518	820000
Cd	2C7c													43383		887000	1629000	3011000	3146000	132000	189000	93000	93000	93000	93000	79714	79714	79714	79156	79156
Cd	2L													1901		180000	152037	124000	560358
Cd	5C1a																			735000	89000	112000	112000	112000	112000	97170	97170	97170	83566	83566
Cd	5C1bi													628000	538000	496000	656000	839000	889000	136000	2000										90000
Cd	6A															105000	126000	4000	244
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL												10451000	2012070	28181800	3090000	6842808	5096043	8951515	8322590	4439302	2805000	2805000	2805000	2805000	2354681	2354681	2392905	3696324	3326691	5428804
Hg	1A1a													3073489	28800000	3616000	3645306	4060872	4572621	3975100	3950200	4695000	4695000	4695000	4695000	4572353	3572353	3765433	3674864	3307377	4051017
Hg	1A1c													402840	177170	661000	455950		289081	212700	240700	112000	112000	112000	112000	87621	87621	97622	104260	104260	20220000
Hg	1A2a																			531000	370000	1000	1000	1000	1000	729	729	729	592	592	860000
Hg	1A2gviii													16690	105201	275000	412640	418489	520570	17000	13000	1126000	1126000	1126000	1126000	661742	461742	465432	623678	623678	40000
Hg	1A3bi													3000		600000	2030	1000	100	19000									21134	21134
Hg	1A3c													400000		90000	97200	57000	12000	85000	18000
Hg	1A4ai													291000	241739	59000	125500	111507	84101	70030	11007	20000	20000	20000	20000	16233	16233	16233	16233	16233	190000
Hg	1A4bi													1215773	449270	500000	342453	405081	227916	201980	210594	5000	5000	5000	5000	4338	4338	4338	4338	4338	150000
Hg	2C1																			620000	512000	375000	375000	375000	375000	321429	321429	321429	277393	277393	4090000
Hg	2C7c													9000	150002		10000	714000	832000	78000	98000	2000	2000	2000	2000	1714	1714	1714	1702	1702
Hg	2L													6700		58000	54076	9003200	10058
Hg	5C1bi													459000	390000	557000	697000	853000	944000	99000		5000	5000	5000	5000	4338	4338	4338	6073	6073	50000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL												25051000	5904895	30313383	6592000	5961158	15650372	7557548	6791125	5621682	6788000	6788000	6788000	6788000	6058673	4858673	5073667	5394242	4854818	30790067
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE																									6058673	4858673	5073667	5394242	4854818	30790067

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HCB	1A2gviii																					109000000	109000000	109000000	109000000						70000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL																					898000000	898000000	898000000	898000000				7531001	6777901	35063319
PCB	1A1a																												39385	35447	68134803
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL																												676608	608947	221674803
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE																												676608	608947	221674803