Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: UA Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A4cii													1121	757	509	524	777	504	992	2	50196	50196	50196	56007
NOx	2B10a													6681	8307	7748	8744	6785	116766	3117	1296	687	687	687	767	657	657
NOx	2L													6074	11409	15816	16541	4444	2167	19	13	9	9	9	10	9	9
NMVOC	1A1b													2386	3165	31124	15407	11771	13192	14207	12004	22	22	22	14	11	11
NMVOC	1A1c													116	627	708	2756	3407	25843	20616	668	990	990	990	637	315	315
NMVOC	1A2a																			22017	1043	41	41	41	26	6384	5384
NMVOC	1A4bi													3024	5613	21	684	1879	12782	4194	4066	51	51	51	33	18909	14909
NMVOC	1B2ai													15349	24084	12348	37513	32578	28908	20	806	1660	1660	1660	1068	916	916
NMVOC	2B1																			154	93	9	9	23731	15271	269	269
NMVOC	2L													16984	22404	22513	22618	7712	4742	46	4	22	22	22	14	12	12
NH3	1A4bi													545			5	9204	6140	34	7438	28	28	28	25	22	22
NH3	1A4ci																			13172	17559	20	20	20	18	16	16
NH3	1A4cii													444	29584	12331	6735	12067	10237			0	0	0	0
NH3	2A6													1		5	10930	2	2	4	10	11	11	11	10	8	8
NH3	3Da1													50	89	1072	1337		22	14270	15451	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	6A													128	84	1	1103	1	10332
CO	1A3ai(i)													101854	107885	1765	344799			757	125
CO	1A3ai(ii)													216208	250995	71	141356			1120	806
CO	1A4bii																				1	1350045	1350045	1350045	1284225

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1a			3		4343	57646					29328	29328	29328	29328	28562	28562
PM2.5	1A1c			0		2270	10792					885	885	885	885	692	692
PM2.5	1A2gviii			3		554	3064					2856	2856	2856	2856	1679	1679
PM2.5	1A3bi			2		174	400
PM2.5	1A4ai			4		208	2461					673	673	673	673	546	546
PM2.5	1A4bi						27711					114	114	114	114	99	99
PM2.5	2C7c			0		2045	14155					79	79	79	79	68	68
PM2.5	2L			0		4139	4548					1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL			14		14559	125239					40707	40707	40707	40707	37677	37677
PM10	1A1a			16		54828	74689					71262	71262	71262	71262	69401	69401
PM10	2C7c			3		10578	9499					1206	1206	1206	1206	1033	1033
PM10	2L			81		15804	11137					1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A1a			332026	319015	312410	327722	347608670	306243	326930	289260	292128	292128	292128	287832	280313	180313
TSP	1A1c			30134	41085	33291	36194	28963919	21288	30385	22559	14149	14149	14149	13941	10907	10907
TSP	1A2gviii			40170	45454	49438	49883	46017519	76736	10646	7293	38104	38104	38104	37544	22064	22064
TSP	1A3bi			9039	10764	9742	7837	8751961	23400	10071	14809
TSP	1A3c			2831	3666	4106	4429	7728153	5614	23048	17887
TSP	1A4ai			79171	54544	8706	8179	14728611	13486	37490	4375	4549	4549	4549	4482	3638	3638
TSP	1A4bi			108503	93484	96588	70353	64513181	61347	62907	16353	7876	7876	7876	7760	6733	6733
TSP	1A4ci									182254	2408	645	645	645	635	572	572
TSP	2A6			36916	29739	9759	13711	20762095	11373	1686	2319	5304	5304	5304	5226	3954	3954
TSP	2C7c			143855	146911	134423	199291	200519120	192209	30456	12698	2343	2343	2343	2309	1979	1979
TSP	2L			6781	17123	29605	29920	20190058	16176	29	9	11	11	11	11	10	10
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL		867478	825946	796379	723426	775380	785178498	752923	1094056	560690	562067	562067	562067	553800	496786	376786

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2gviii													3315690	1328830	3928000	5554828	4921340	26938632	2830053	2397053	3661000	3661000	3661000	2300707	1352108	1352108
Pb	1A4ai													18692900	5843149	814000	444500	711721	404821	269021	208217	147000	147000	147000	92380	74982	74982
Pb	2C7c													23985820	24086190	77544000	181859000	206369330	196585800	23008013	15536003	331000	331000	331000	208013	178296	178296
Pb	2L													33400	13027780	16961000	9944212	297704	273349			205000	205000	205000	128830	110425	110425
Cd	1A1a													14100	26800000	505000	230032	437084	227476	235120	224000	254000	254000	254000	254000	247365	247365
Cd	1A2gviii													24100	82694	739000	249666	389071	313055	59000	132000	225000	225000	225000	225000	132231	132231
Cd	1A3bi													1202531	691255		3402460	107604	3493900	3550749	2027617
Cd	1B1b																			962000	198000	205000	205000	205000	205000	175714	175714
Cd	2C1																			1131000	828000	1408000	1408000	1408000	1408000	1206857	1206857
Cd	2C7c													43383		887000	1629000	3011000	3146000	132000	189000	93000	93000	93000	93000	79714	79714
Cd	2L													1901		180000	152037	124000	560358
Cd	5C1a																			735000	89000	112000	112000	112000	112000	97170	97170
Cd	5C1bi													628000	538000	496000	656000	839000	889000	136000	2000
Cd	6A															105000	126000	4000	244
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL												10451000	2012070	28181800	3090000	6842808	5096043	8951515	8322590	4439302	2805000	2805000	2805000	2805000	2354681	2354681
Hg	1A1a													3073489	28800000	3616000	3645306	4060872	4572621	3975100	3950200	4695000	4695000	4695000	4695000	4572353	3572353
Hg	1A1c													402840	177170	661000	455950		289081	212700	240700	112000	112000	112000	112000	87621	87621
Hg	1A2a																			531000	370000	1000	1000	1000	1000	729	729
Hg	1A2gviii													16690	105201	275000	412640	418489	520570	17000	13000	1126000	1126000	1126000	1126000	661742	461742
Hg	1A3bi													3000		600000	2030	1000	100	19000
Hg	1A3c													400000		90000	97200	57000	12000	85000	18000
Hg	1A4bi													1215773	449270	500000	342453	405081	227916	201980	210594	5000	5000	5000	5000	4338	4338
Hg	2C7c													9000	150002		10000	714000	832000	78000	98000	2000	2000	2000	2000	1714	1714
Hg	2L													6700		58000	54076	9003200	10058
Hg	5C1bi													459000	390000	557000	697000	853000	944000	99000		5000	5000	5000	5000	4338	4338
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL												25051000	5904895	30313383	6592000	5961158	15650372	7557548	6791125	5621682	6788000	6788000	6788000	6788000	6058673	4858673