Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: TR Submission year: 2024

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2022
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2022
PMs: 2000 - 2022

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
NOx	1A2a	12761	12995	12952	12828	16915	17728	19661	19726	17804	17699	13659	17353	16476	12984	12869	12906	12587	19622	24360	22575	29377	31652	31084	31774	31550	32929	35262	39089	37640	35801	36944	38412	34744
NOx	1A2c	4940	4992	5705	5547	5727	6639	6542	6594	5513	4906	4646	6928	6176	5320	8641	6315	5298	2581	1177	2948	2261	5538	6316	5115	4966	9350	9741	8411	11749	10616	11207	14186	12284
NOx	1A3bi					251294	227379	252731	306757	368644	29314	416485	384509	249341	191729	136755	113148	103620	89336	80557	85762	76703	69573	60684	54489	49800	48122	45982	29314	26665	31274	36605	36028	33807
NOx	1A3bii					51115	43873	56500	80421	93508	13714	87071	82256	60041	53714	51837	51921	51135	47362	44235	37626	34143	32803	25353	24917	22115	23973	22695	13714	12448	16197	20449	19421	7743
NOx	1A3biii					469257	429161	510012	618433	668873	91259	539771	495473	356471	304519	746645	648352	601272	504284	431309	324957	274312	241026	216872	189130	170941	158470	147669	91259	83888	92924	77479	78109	60945
NOx	1A3dii	11013	11747	13820	14371	13479	15730	15142	15111	15706	14235	13474	17275	17745	19231	26486	28020	31551	34435	33234	35082	36142	47955	35448	26534	28815	12645	3179	26258	26465	26465	27502	24669	24876
NMVOC	1A3bi					257938	233391	259412	314868	378390	14233	427497	394675	255795	196499	123409	82238	69549	10395	59084	51158	44599	37960	33056	29321	26350	25011	23031	14233	13175	12735	14555	14996	19151
NMVOC	1A3biii					43901	40017	47199	56970	62204	7266	51856	47475	33125	27365	51275	41027	34806	6649	30114	23282	19801	17408	15753	14061	12779	11880	11175	7266	6647	6487	5562	6092	3829
NMVOC	1A3bv					61672	57374	64274	77592	90986	13538	101468	95862	68574	57465	38860	30333	28401	23638	25719	24026	22320	20956	19993	19223	18641	18398	18139	13538	13420	14384	16764	17244	16543
NMVOC	2D3d	72040	73464	74891	76314	77743	79183	80640	82110	83564	84965	96200	65875	80188	94788	106496	92117	88522	89661	90843	92170	93645	94917	96064	97386	98692	100020	101384	102648	104164	105626	106210	107564	108325
NMVOC	2H2	68072	69417	70766	72111	73460	74822	76198	77587	78961	84458	87697	79514	84256	80857	81216	77136	70811	74058	66925	81913	84915	84134	85264	85569	86502	85448	87446	88345	89423	90463	90878	91841	92382
SOx	1A2c	17857	10827	9852	7787	9905	13408	10916	10881	13703	10516	7059	12162	9980	5875	10232	5510	4844	1516	734	14623	26450	23564	22617	24005	23287	22917	22347	15535	27258	24915	25976	25635	30630
SOx	1A2e	69071	73573	58045	55456	38834	39644	48120	48768	56629	58060	54454	58782	51339	47198	38239	43010	36186	26521	4171	6320	6323	33850	32683	31716	30246	49360	49129	44804	43786	39603	53046	59851	74273
NH3	3B1b	39470	43221	43765	44059	44079	45228	45478	42787	42329	42276	42482	42624	40120	51569	62195	66038	69017	71944	73766	72062	77919	85397	97130	101375	100692	99847	102635	117750	127952	132981	134909	135001	128280
CO	1A3bi					3693614	3342096	3714717	4508827	5418455	203399	6121658	5651653	3669951	2825827	1795611	1407432	1200971	1015583	863846	738325	637486	544784	475109	421655	379017	356538	328320	203399	188537	183909	185249	182396	167768
CO	1A3bii					182000	152878	199680	291836	335562	44502	313741	301157	224778	206054	209780	209277	194581	172392	153121	130514	115737	103394	93206	85465	78878	73882	69430	44502	42102	52764	78392	77579	67171
CO	1A3biii					119645	109249	129364	156522	170055	26275	139397	127794	90715	76477	171524	148785	137557	115657	99159	75420	63862	56152	51477	44989	40728	37959	35629	26275	23723	22176	18787	19389	14336
CO	1A3biv					145764	134114	146913	178091	199916	40804	152597	118954	99335	92352	82074	77909	78898	72114	66762	61864	57468	54184	51342	48373	46070	44066	42627	40804	40174	36248	38536	39738	40882

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
PM2.5	2A1	3764	3737	3835	3954	4262	4732	4966	5408	5811	6006	6864	7059	7124	7826	8125	8056	8821	9206	9145	7514	9330	10416	9380
PM10	1A3bii	13309	12224	8250	5356	5356	5022	4746	4344	4018	3416	3067	2688	2432	2234	2921	1934	1816	123	1111	1397	1285	1231	1571
PM10	1A3biii	22771	20883	14887	29240	29240	25369	23479	19719	16887	12731	10668	9271	8346	7367	2637	6188	5775	5775	3092	3493	2939	3055	2856
PM10	2A1	6774	6727	6903	7118	7672	8518	8939	9734	10460	10811	12355	12706	12823	14087	14625	14501	15878	16570	16460	13525	16790	18748	16890

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Pb	1A3bi										23294	22325	22308	23294	148102	194393	203081	184971	224726	167086	211407	219495	204476	173928	155548	142248	157219	151495	95643	83879	105665	116516	112967	853420
Pb	1A3bii					81628	72572	120800	133586	144439	105362	29157	29265	105362	223472	118416	138820	192089	158445	161211	140500	128443	115899	87916	82524	71554	75794	70904	41881	37445	50295	68714	64764	623451
Pb	1A3biii					598585	547289	859556	846770	835917	462145	137535	137519	462145	786316	845081	815989	908821	774718	647448	485058	411439	364832	331310	283006	254085	236151	249622	630328	534420	160163	162770	155113	1041093
Pb	1A3bvi					7963445	7223286	8523092	10545025	11827659	7356673	48505	44679	7356673	6786043	14969422	13564262	12924177	11033288	9719608	8400533	7601000	6795835	5883811	5164997	4637396	4654756	4647905	7248160	6208577	3112573	3490318	3339235	2720000
Pb	1A3dii	28688	30600	36000	37436	35111	40976	39443	39364	40914	37080	35100	45000	46224	50094	68994	72990	82188	89700	86571	91386	94147	124920	1800	69120	75060	32940	8280	68400	68940	68940	71640	64260	64260
Pb	5C2	173799	183791	189924	192450	181220	166050	179580	256250	158260	157469	146755	141040	90610	106190	41820	89581	101270	68761	97990	50738	54940	36039	43050	24789	1640	16691	4100	11050	2513	6761	7800	2312	3567
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	349424	363051	380624	391662	9028625	8222994	9899076	12003251	13189568	8326864	606505	572631	8272097	8372610	16491190	15108233	14589374	12613200	11205320	9634281	8718939	7876067	6765910	6030439	5441762	5456301	5457317	8440720	7202942	3769005	4224410	4115837	5763276
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	349424	363051	380624	391662	9028625	8222994	9899076	12003251	13189568	8326864	606505	572631	8272097	8372610	16491190	15108233	14589374	12613200	11205320	9634281	8718939	7876067	6765910	6030439	5441762	5456301	5457317	8440720	7202942	3769005	4224410	4115837	5763276
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	349424	363051	380624	391662	9028625	8222994	9899076	12003251	13189568	8326864	606505	572631	8272097	8372610	16491190	15108233	14589374	12613200	11205320	9634281	8718939	7876067	6765910	6030439	5441762	5456301	5457317	8440720	7202942	3769005	4224410	4115837	5763276
Cd	1A3biii					100562	91944	144398	142250	140427	105895	137535	137519	77640	132094	141966	137079	152682	130146	108771	81490	69122	61292	55660	47545	42686	39673	41936	105895	89783	26907	27345	26059	4123
Cd	2C7a	207	312	287	249	272	217	232	254	252	252	285	261	213	202	382	305	289	197	418		275	337	390	394	447	499	508	587	939	921	868	561000	1200
Cd	5C1biii	470131	478106	486047	493953	501834	509673	517477	525247	532770	540446	548020	378386	509020	856406	721184	576848	401388	659525	917662	629641	340876	348533	356190	411060	465930	623100	781200	781200	427053	490422	639421	1010865	1085265
Cd	5C2	470131	478106	486047	493953	501834	509673	517477	525247	532770	540446	548020	378386	509020	856406	721184	576848	401388	659525	917662	629641	340876	348533	356190	411060	465930	623100	781200	781200	427053	490422	639421	1010865	1085265
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	945717	962063	978447	994603	1254789	1248140	1270012	1294773	1315701	1262811	1340548	998194	1257038	1975115	1743189	1449081	1146574	1604205	2099260	1489785	895395	892979	870156	968787	1065536	1376842	1688622	1747797	1015263	1072553	1380108	2679279	2203912
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	945717	962063	978447	994603	1254789	1248140	1270012	1294773	1315701	1262811	1340548	998194	1257038	1975115	1743189	1449081	1146574	1604205	2099260	1489785	895395	892979	870156	968787	1065536	1376842	1688622	1747797	1015263	1072553	1380108	2679279	2203912
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	945717	962063	978447	994603	1254789	1248140	1270012	1294773	1315701	1262811	1340548	998194	1257038	1975115	1743189	1449081	1146574	1604205	2099260	1489785	895395	892979	870156	968787	1065536	1376842	1688622	1747797	1015263	1072553	1380108	2679279	2203912
Hg	1A3dii	3188	3400	4000	4160	3901	4553	4383	4374	4546	4120	3900	5000	5136	5566	7666	8110	9132	9967	9619	10154	10461	13880	200	7680	8340	3660	920	7600	7660	7660	7960	7140	7140