Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
NOx1A2a1276112995129521282816915177281966119726178041769913659173531647612984128691290612587196222436022575293773165231084317743155032929352623908937640358013694438412
NOx1A2c494049925705554757276639654265945513490646466928617653208641631552982581117729482261553863165115496693509741841111749106161120714186
NOx1A3bi    25129422737925273130675736864429314416485384509249341191729136755113148103620893368055785762767036957360684544894980048122459822931426665312743660536028
NOx1A3bii    51115438735650080421935081371487071822566004153714518375192151135473624423537626341433280325353249172211523973226951371412448161972044919421
NOx1A3biii    469257429161510012618433668873912595397714954733564713045197466456483526012725042844313093249572743122410262168721891301709411584701476699125983888929247747978109
NOx1A3dii110131174713820143711347915730151421511115706142351347417275177451923126486280203155134435332343508236142479553544826534288151264531792625826465264652750224669
NMVOC1A3bi    257938233391259412314868378390142334274973946752557951964991234098223869549103955908451158445993796033056293212635025011230311423313175127351455514996
NMVOC1A3biii    4390140017471995697062204726651856474753312527365512754102734806664930114232821980117408157531406112779118801117572666647648755626092
NMVOC1A3bv    616725737464274775929098613538101468958626857457465388603033328401236382571924026223202095619993192231864118398181391353813420143841676417244
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891763147774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692100020101384102648104164105626106250107564
NMVOC2H26807269417707667211173460748227619877587789618445887697795148425680857812167713670811740586692581913849158413485264855698650285448874468834589423904639087891841
NMVOC3B1b4010342804430004298042547431664327140898405234033440080399393956534715452884773548869497754957348192512425575562031644046298561847632377293478272812178182281100
NMVOC5A4555380272591071614173176302138924854268992834629793312413104432108309243230133679333543303034187353453639037435385693970243951398053980540398403984085940859
SOx1A2c17857108279852778799051340810916108811370310516705912162998058751023255104844151673414623264502356422617240052328722917223471553527258249152597625635
SOx1A2e6907173573580455545638834396444812048768566295806054454587825133947198382394301036186265214171632063236563961247256512482641907432894315743018385155059556982
NH33B1b394704322143765440594407945228454784278742329422764248242624401204330362195660386901771944737667206277919853979713010137510069299847102635117750127952132981134909135000
NH33B4gi17629170541752231952119408192341807920602233942412021712186811917220266197212022419695215702126122313238002649228412297693145733082364694078640786327973295433000
NH3NATIONALTOTAL616191637532815068663874632879606277622910603035642602661040645205585215577759601371619749637138649408616082579835582048592134618976682896722098731197703840733707781664798694824438877812930046
NH3NTCOMPL(NECD)616191637532815068663874632879606277622910603035642602661040645205585215577759601371619749637138649408616082579835582048592134618976682896722098731197703840733707781664798694824438877812930046
NH3NTCOMPLIANCE616191637532815068663874632879606277622910603035642602661040645205585215577759601371619749637138649408616082579835582048592134618976682896722098731197703840733707781664798694824438877812930046
CO1A3bi    3693614334209637147174508827541845520339961216585651653366995128258271795611140743212009711015583863846738325637486544784475109421655379017356538328320203399188537183909185249182396
CO1A3bii    1820001528781996802918363355624450231374130115722477820605420978020927719458117239215312113051411573710339493206854657887873882694304450242102527647839277579
CO1A3biii    1196451092491293641565221700552627513939712779490715764771715241487851375571156579915975420638625615251477449894072837959356292627523723221761878719389

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
PM2.51A2gviii27614134762446129413262492264631589381081060411420966734217751843765889651353835347040943121
PM2.52A137643737383539544262473249665408581160066864705971247826812580568821920691457514933010416
PM101A3bii13309122248250535653565022474643444018341630672688243222342921193418161231111139712851231
PM101A3biii227712088314887292402924025369234791971916887127311066892718346736726376188577557753092349329393055
PM102A1677467276903711876728518893997341046010811123551270612823140871462514501158781657016460135251679018748

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Pb1A3biii    598585547289859556846770835917462145137535137519462145786316845081815989908821774718647448485058411439364832331310283006254085236151249622630328534420160163162770155113
Pb1A3bvi    796344572232868523092105450251182765973566734850544679735667367860431496942213564262129241771103328897196088400533760100067958355883811516499746373964654756464790572481606208577311257334903183339235
Pb2C7a357960539220495672635550469300374300438900499700435100435100491834451250368030273600659300526300499700340100722000571939662224676400674500680200771400862600877800969000969000969000969000969000
Pb5C2144060114406021440603144060414406051440606144060714406081440609144060101440601114406012144060131440601414406015144060161440601714406018144060191440602014406021144060221440602314406024144060251440602614406027144060281440602914406090009000
Cd2C7a207240312180286968367950271700216700254100289300251900251900284746261250213070158400381700304700289300196900418000331122383393391600390500393800446600499400508200561000561000561000561000561000
Cd5C1biii6066210606622060662306066240606625060662606066270606628060662906066210060662110606621206066213060662140606621506066216060662170606621806066219060662200606622106066222060662230606622406066225060662260606622706066228060662290606623006066230060662
Cd5C22940010294002029400302940040294005029400602940070294008029400902940010029400110294001202940013029400140294001502940016029400170294001802940019029400200294002102940022029400230294002402940025029400260294002702940028029400290294003002940030029400
Hg2C7a4333206527406000247693505681004531005313006049005267005267005953785462504455103312007981006371006049004117008740006923478016398188008165008234009338001044200106260011730001173000117300011730001173000
Hg5C1biii32605913260592326059332605943260595326059632605973260598326059932605910326059113260591232605913326059143260591532605916326059173260591832605919326059203260592132605922326059233260592432605925326059263260592732605928326059293260593032605930326059