Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: TR Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A3bi					251294	227379	252731	306757	368644	29314	416485	384509	249341	191729	136755	113148	103620	89336	80557	85762	76703	69573	60684	54489	49800	48122	45982	29314	26665	31274	36605
NOx	1A3bii					51115	43873	56500	80421	93508	13714	87071	82256	60041	53714	51837	51921	51135	47362	44235	37626	34143	32803	25353	24917	22115	23973	22695	13714	12448	16197	20449
NOx	1A3biii					469257	429161	510012	618433	668873	91259	539771	495473	356471	304519	746645	648352	601272	504284	431309	324957	274312	241026	216872	189130	170941	158470	147669	91259	83888	92924	77479
NOx	1A3dii	11013	11747	13820	14371	13479	15730	15142	15111	15706	14235	13474	17275	17745	19231	26486	28020	31551	34435	33234	35082	36142	47955	35448	26534	28815	12645	3179	26258	26465	26465	27502
NMVOC	1A3bi					257938	233391	259412	314868	378390	14233	427497	394675	255795	196499	123409	82238	69549	10395	59084	51158	44599	37960	33056	29321	26350	25011	23031	14233	13175	12735	14555
NMVOC	1A3biii					43901	40017	47199	56970	62204	7266	51856	47475	33125	27365	51275	41027	34806	6649	30114	23282	19801	17408	15753	14061	12779	11880	11175	7266	6647	6487	5562
NMVOC	1A3bv					61672	57374	64274	77592	90986	13538	101468	95862	68574	57465	38860	30333	28401	23638	25719	24026	22320	20956	19993	19223	18641	18398	18139	13538	13420	14384	16764
NMVOC	1A4bi	257957	260482	265533	262212	249067	257311	254675	260999	248495	233811	227639	209786	207630	207141	205712	202000	196078	194581	249003	260820	254740	214840	228125	150309	141215	173300	142718	137709	86007	102417	113283
NMVOC	2D3d	72040	73464	74891	76314	77743	79183	80640	82110	83564	84965	96200	65875	80188	94788	106496	92117	88522	89661	90843	92170	93645	94917	96064	97386	98692	100020	101384	102648	104164	105626	106250
NMVOC	2H2	68072	69417	70766	72111	73460	74822	76198	77587	78961	84458	87697	79514	84256	80857	81216	77136	70811	74058	66925	81913	84915	84134	85264	85569	86502	85448	87446	88345	89423	90463	90878
NMVOC	3B1b	40103	42804	43000	42980	42547	43166	43271	40898	40523	40334	40080	39939	39565	34715	45288	47735	48869	49775	49573	48192	51242	55755	62031	64404	62985	61847	63237	72934	78272	81217	81822
NMVOC	5A	4555	3802	7259	10716	14173	17630	21389	24854	26899	28346	29793	31241	31044	32108	30924	32301	33679	33354	33030	34187	35345	36390	37435	38569	39702	43951	39805	39805	40398	40398	40859
SOx	1A2e	69071	73573	58045	55456	38834	39644	48120	48768	56629	58060	54454	58782	51339	47198	38239	43010	36186	26521	4171	6320	6323	65639	61247	24447	23546	41907	43289	43157	43018	38515	50595
NH3	3B4gi	17629	17054	175223	19521	19408	19234	18079	20602	23394	24120	21712	18681	19172	20266	19721	20224	19695	21570	21261	22313	23800	26492	28412	29769	31457	33082	36469	40786	40786	32797	32954
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	661040	645807	585215	577759	601907	620272	637641	649899	616083	579835	582049	592136	618981	682495	722095	731191	706778	767322	804600	802429	828173	904494
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	661040	645807	585215	577759	601907	620272	637641	649899	616083	579835	582049	592136	618981	682495	722095	731191	706778	767322	804600	802429	828173	904494
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	661040	645807	585215	577759	601907	620272	637641	649899	616083	579835	582049	592136	618981	682495	722095	731191	706778	767322	804600	802429	828173	904494
CO	1A3bi					3693614	3342096	3714717	4508827	5418455	203399	6121658	5651653	3669951	2825827	1795611	1407432	1200971	1015583	863846	738325	637486	544784	475109	421655	379017	356538	328320	203399	188537	183909	185249
CO	1A3bii					182000	152878	199680	291836	335562	44502	313741	301157	224778	206054	209780	209277	194581	172392	153121	130514	115737	103394	93206	85465	78878	73882	69430	44502	42102	52764	78392
CO	1A3biii					119645	109249	129364	156522	170055	26275	139397	127794	90715	76477	171524	148785	137557	115657	99159	75420	63862	56152	51477	44989	40728	37959	35629	26275	23723	22176	18787

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A2gviii	27614	13476	24461	29413	26249	22646	31589	38108	10604	11420	9667	3421	7751	8437	6588	9	65	135	3636	3469	4094
PM2.5	2A1	3764	3737	3835	3954	4262	4732	4966	5408	5811	6006	6864	7059	7124	7826	8125	8056	8821	9206	9145	7514	9330
PM10	1A3bii	13309	12224	8250	5356	5356	5022	4746	4344	4018	3416	3067	2688	2432	2234	2921	1934	1816	123	1111	1397	1285
PM10	1A3biii	22771	20883	14887	29240	29240	25369	23479	19719	16887	12731	10668	9271	8346	7367	2637	6188	5775	5775	3092	3493	2939
PM10	1A4ci	2518	2409	2446	2484	2669	2693	2893	3151	3992	3919	3843	4461	836	1633	2793	5402	6387	7499	8540	9637	10776
PM10	2A1	6774	6727	6903	7118	7672	8518	8939	9734	10460	10811	12355	12706	12823	14087	14625	14501	15878	16570	16460	13525	16790

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3biii					598585	547289	859556	846770	835917	462145	137535	137519	462145	786316	845081	815989	908821	774718	647448	485058	411439	364832	331310	283006	254085	236151	249622	630328	534420	160163	162770
Pb	1A3bvi					7963445	7223286	8523092	10545025	11827659	7356673	48505	44679	7356673	6786043	14969422	13564262	12924177	11033288	9719608	8400533	7601000	6795835	5883811	5164997	4637396	4654756	4647905	7248160	6208577	3112573	3490318
Pb	2C7a	357960	539220	495672	635550	469300	374300	438900	499700	435100	435100	491834	451250	368030	273600	659300	526300	499700	340100	722000	571939	662224	676400	674500	680200	771400	862600	877800	969000	969000	969000	969000
Pb	5C2	144060	1144060	2144060	3144060	4144060	5144060	6144060	7144060	8144060	9144060	10144060	11144060	12144060	13144060	14144060	15144060	16144060	17144060	18144060	19144060	20144060	21144060	22144060	23144060	24144060	25144060	26144060	27144060	28144060	29144060	30144060
Cd	2C7a	207240	312180	286968	367950	271700	216700	254100	289300	251900	251900	284746	261250	213070	158400	381700	304700	289300	196900	418000	331122	383393	391600	390500	393800	446600	499400	508200	561000	561000	561000	561000
Cd	5C1biii	60662	1060662	2060662	3060662	4060662	5060662	6060662	7060662	8060662	9060662	10060662	11060662	12060662	13060662	14060662	15060662	16060662	17060662	18060662	19060662	20060662	21060662	22060662	23060662	24060662	25060662	26060662	27060662	28060662	29060662	30060662
Cd	5C2	29400	1029400	2029400	3029400	4029400	5029400	6029400	7029400	8029400	9029400	10029400	11029400	12029400	13029400	14029400	15029400	16029400	17029400	18029400	19029400	20029400	21029400	22029400	23029400	24029400	25029400	26029400	27029400	28029400	29029400	30029400
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	303449	2408630	4383607	6464960	8613120	10535740	12580161	14624287	16592751	18524528	20619930	22593372	24542816	26511462	28772801	30690442	32723470	34572519	36772180	38652270	40687660	42678105	44638739	46631131	48670886	50720599	52724970	54836866	56812273	58742844	60755058
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	303449	2408630	4383607	6464960	8613120	10535740	12580161	14624287	16592751	18524528	20619930	22593372	24542816	26511462	28772801	30690442	32723470	34572519	36772180	38652270	40687660	42678105	44638739	46631131	48670886	50720599	52724970	54836866	56812273	58742844	60755058
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	303449	2408630	4383607	6464960	8613120	10535740	12580161	14624287	16592751	18524528	20619930	22593372	24542816	26511462	28772801	30690442	32723470	34572519	36772180	38652270	40687660	42678105	44638739	46631131	48670886	50720599	52724970	54836866	56812273	58742844	60755058
Hg	2C7a	433320	652740	600024	769350	568100	453100	531300	604900	526700	526700	595378	546250	445510	331200	798100	637100	604900	411700	874000	692347	801639	818800	816500	823400	933800	1044200	1062600	1173000	1173000	1173000	1173000
Hg	5C1biii	326059	1326059	2326059	3326059	4326059	5326059	6326059	7326059	8326059	9326059	10326059	11326059	12326059	13326059	14326059	15326059	16326059	17326059	18326059	19326059	20326059	21326059	22326059	23326059	24326059	25326059	26326059	27326059	28326059	29326059	30326059