Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: TR Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3bi					251294	227379	252731	306757	368644	29314	416485	384509	249341	191729	136755	113148	103620	89336	80557	85762	76703	69573	60684	54489	49800	48122	45982	29314	26665	31274
NOx	1A3bii					51115	43873	56500	80421	93508	13714	87071	82256	60041	53714	51837	51921	51135	47362	44235	37626	34143	32803	25353	24917	22115	23973	22695	13714	12448	16197
NOx	1A3biii					469257	429161	510012	618433	668873	91259	539771	495473	356471	304519	746645	648352	601272	504284	431309	324957	274312	241026	216872	189130	170941	158470	147669	91259	83888	92924
NOx	1A3dii	12639	13481	15860	16493	15468	18052	17377	17342	18025	16336	15464	19825	20364	22069	30396	32156	36208	39518	38139	40260	41477	55034	793	30451	33068	14512	3648	30134	30372	30372
NMVOC	1A3bi					257938	233391	259412	314868	378390	14233	427497	394675	255795	196499	123409	82238	69549	10395	59084	51158	44599	37960	33056	29321	26350	25011	23031	14233	13175	12735
NMVOC	1A3biii					43901	40017	47199	56970	62204	7266	51856	47475	33125	27365	51275	41027	34806	6649	30114	23282	19801	17408	15753	14061	12779	11880	11175	7266	6647	6487
NMVOC	1A3bv					61672	57374	64274	77592	90986	13538	101468	95862	68574	57465	38860	30333	28401	23638	25719	24026	22320	20956	19993	19223	18641	18398	18139	13538	13420	14384
NMVOC	1A4bi	257957	260482	265533	262212	249067	257311	254675	260999	248495	233811	227639	209786	207630	207141	205712	202000	196078	194581	249003	260820	254740	214840	228125	150309	141215	173300	142718	137709	86007	102417
NMVOC	2D3d	72040	73464	74891	76314	77743	79183	80640	82110	83564	84965	96200	65875	80188	94788	106496	92117	88522	89661	90843	92170	93645	94917	96064	97386	98692	100020	101384	102648	104164	105626
NMVOC	2H2	68072	69417	70766	72111	73460	74822	76198	77587	78961	84458	87697	79514	84256	80857	81216	77136	70811	74058	66925	81913	84915	84134	85264	85569	86502	85448	87446	88345	89423	90463
NMVOC	3B1b	40103	42804	43000	42980	42547	43166	43271	40898	40523	40334	40080	39939	39565	34715	45288	47735	48869	49775	49573	48192	51242	55755	62031	64404	62985	61847	63237	72934	78272	81217
NMVOC	5A	4555	3802	7259	10716	14173	17630	21389	24854	26899	28346	29793	31241	31044	32108	30924	32301	33679	33354	33030	34187	35345	36390	37435	38569	39702	43951	39805	39805	40398	40398
NH3	3B4gi	17629	17054	175223	19521	19408	19234	18079	20602	23394	24120	21712	18681	19172	20266	19721	20224	19695	21570	21261	22313	23800	26492	28412	29769	31457	33082	36469	40786	40786	32797
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	654877	640151	579950	572812	617616	615193	632847	645575	612208	572533	578393	588548	615690	679193	718721	716860	696844	760205	796056	727924	764662
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	654877	640151	579950	572812	617616	615193	632847	645575	612208	572533	578393	588548	615690	679193	718721	716860	696844	760205	796056	727924	764662
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	616827	638165	815708	664521	632879	606277	622910	603035	642602	654877	640151	579950	572812	617616	615193	632847	645575	612208	572533	578393	588548	615690	679193	718721	716860	696844	760205	796056	727924	764662
CO	1A3bi					3693614	3342096	3714717	4508827	5418455	203399	6121658	5651653	3669951	2825827	1795611	1407432	1200971	1015583	863846	738325	637486	544784	475109	421655	379017	356538	328320	203399	188537	183909
CO	1A3bii					182000	152878	199680	291836	335562	44502	313741	301157	224778	206054	209780	209277	194581	172392	153121	130514	115737	103394	93206	85465	78878	73882	69430	44502	42102	52764
CO	1A3biii					119645	109249	129364	156522	170055	26275	139397	127794	90715	76477	171524	148785	137557	115657	99159	75420	63862	56152	51477	44989	40728	37959	35629	26275	23723	22176
CO	1A4bi	1671577	1690565	1732863	1695969	1566988	1638001	1611609	1670664	1552186	1444214	1413699	1276727	1284378	1304824	1315295	1301173	1268977	1276831	1815753	1949959	1915406	1660546	2019452	1276817	1196493	1454979	1247511	1221274	756227	907709

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A1b	3874	4301	4326	4337	4737	3900	4336	5549	4207	6106	5777		6332	6208	5811	9218	6277	6094	5588	6327
PM2.5	1A2gviii	27614	13476	24461	29413	26249	22646	31589	38108	10604	11420	9667	3421	7751	8437	6588	9	65	135	3636	3469
PM10	1A3bii	13309	12224	8250	5356	5356	5022	4746	4344	4018	3416	3067	2688	2432	2234	2921	1934	1816	123	1111	1397
PM10	1A3biii	22771	20883	14887	29240	29240	25369	23479	19719	16887	12731	10668	9271	8346	7367	2637	6188	5775	5775	3092	3493
PM10	1A4ci	2518	2409	2446	2484	2669	2693	2893	3151	3992	3919	3843	4461	836	1633	2793	5402	6387	7499	8540	9637

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bii					81628	72572	120800	133586	144439	105362	29157	29265	105362	223472	118416	138820	192089	158445	161211	140500	128443	115899	87916	82524	71554	75794	70904	41881	37445	50295
Pb	1A3biii					598585	547289	859556	846770	835917	462145	137535	137519	462145	786316	845081	815989	908821	774718	647448	485058	411439	364832	331310	283006	254085	236151	249622	630328	534420	160163
Pb	1A3bvi					7963445	7223286	8523092	10545025	11827659	7356673	48505	44679	7356673	6786043	14969422	13564262	12924177	11033288	9719608	8400533	7601000	6795835	5883811	5164997	4637396	4654756	4647905	7248160	6208577	3112573
Pb	1A3dii	28688	30600	36000	37436	35111	40976	39443	39364	40914	37080	35100	45000	46224	50094	68994	72990	82188	89700	86571	91386	94147	124920	1800	69120	75060	32940	8280	68400	68940	68940
Pb	2C7a	357960	539220	495672	635550	469300	374300	438900	499700	435100	435100	491834	451250	368030	273600	659300	526300	499700	340100	722000	571939	662224	676400	674500	680200	771400	862600	877800	969000	969000	969000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	446285	628351	588430	734973	9215318	8326263	10065587	12147230	13364931	8501694	847065	815572	8453677	8367997	16960605	15428681	14910047	12750318	11638104	10027857	9266035	8455007	7332789	6612912	6126447	6182566	6176675	9244191	8092025	4639973
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	446285	628351	588430	734973	9215318	8326263	10065587	12147230	13364931	8501694	847065	815572	8453677	8367997	16960605	15428681	14910047	12750318	11638104	10027857	9266035	8455007	7332789	6612912	6126447	6182566	6176675	9244191	8092025	4639973
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	446285	628351	588430	734973	9215318	8326263	10065587	12147230	13364931	8501694	847065	815572	8453677	8367997	16960605	15428681	14910047	12750318	11638104	10027857	9266035	8455007	7332789	6612912	6126447	6182566	6176675	9244191	8092025	4639973
Cd	2C7a	207240	312180	286968	367950	271700	216700	254100	289300	251900	251900	284746	261250	213070	158400	381700	304700	289300	196900	418000	331122	383393	391600	390500	393800	446600	499400	508200	561000	561000	561000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	213387	318568	293545	374898	523058	445678	490099	534225	502689	434466	529868	503309	452754	421400	682739	600380	633408	482457	682118	562208	597598	588043	548677	541069	580824	630537	634908	746804	722211	652782
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	213387	318568	293545	374898	523058	445678	490099	534225	502689	434466	529868	503309	452754	421400	682739	600380	633408	482457	682118	562208	597598	588043	548677	541069	580824	630537	634908	746804	722211	652782
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	213387	318568	293545	374898	523058	445678	490099	534225	502689	434466	529868	503309	452754	421400	682739	600380	633408	482457	682118	562208	597598	588043	548677	541069	580824	630537	634908	746804	722211	652782
Hg	2C7a	433320	652740	600024	769350	568100	453100	531300	604900	526700	526700	595378	546250	445510	331200	798100	637100	604900	411700	874000	692347	801639	818800	816500	823400	933800	1044200	1062600	1173000	1173000	1173000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	438352	657930	605568	775161	573774	459371	538219	611621	533540	533151	601610	553648	453193	339496	808414	647906	617437	425497	887559	706266	816695	837620	822252	836530	947842	1053176	1068924	1186886	1186559	1186115
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	438352	657930	605568	775161	573774	459371	538219	611621	533540	533151	601610	553648	453193	339496	808414	647906	617437	425497	887559	706266	816695	837620	822252	836530	947842	1053176	1068924	1186886	1186559	1186115
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	438352	657930	605568	775161	573774	459371	538219	611621	533540	533151	601610	553648	453193	339496	808414	647906	617437	425497	887559	706266	816695	837620	822252	836530	947842	1053176	1068924	1186886	1186559	1186115