Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
NOx1A3dii1263913481158601649315468180521737717342180251633615464198252036422069303963215636208395183813940260414775503479330451330681451236483013430372
NMVOC1A3bi    2579382333912594123148683783903575204274973946752557951964991234098223869549103955908451158445993796033056293212635025011230311423313175
NMVOC1A3biii    43901400174719956970622045203251856474753312527365512754102734806664930114232821980117408157531406112779118801117572666647
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891763147774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692100020101384102648104164
NMVOC2H26807269417707667211173460748227619877587789618445887697795148425680857812167713670811740586692581913849158413485264855698650285448874468834589423
NMVOC3B1b4010342804430004298042547431664327140898405234033440080399393956534715452884773548869497754957348192512425575562031644046298561847632377293478272
NMVOC5A4555380272591071614173176302138924854268992834629793312413104432108309243230133679333543303034187353453639037435385693970243951398053980540398
SOx1A2e730137879561711726817328777090896279192556629580605445458782513394719838239430103618626521417163206323794533930785272136641906432864315443924
NH33B4gi17629170541752231952119408192341807920602233942412021712186811917220266197212022419695215702126122313238002649228412297693145733082364694078640786
NH3NATIONALTOTAL616827638165815708664521632879606277622910603035642602654877640103579950572812617616615193632847645575612208572533578393588548615690679193718721716860696844760205796056996816

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
PM2.51A1b38744301432643374737390043365549420761065777 6332620858119218627760945588
PM2.51A2c36414986402338126459433836841008457991303441053900208417133795385432054758
PM101A3bii13309122248250535653565022474643444018341630672688243222342921193418161231111
PM101A3biii227712088314887292402924025369234791971916887127311066892718346736726376188577557753092
PM101A4ci251824092446248426692693289331513992391938434461836163327935402638774998540

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Pb1A3bii    8162872572120800133586144439133839291572926510536222347211841613882019208915844516121114050012844311589987916825247155475794709044188137445
Pb1A3biii    598585547289859556846770835917699545137535137519462145786316845081815989908821774718647448485058411439364832331310283006254085236151249622630328534420
Pb1A3bvi    7963445722328685230921054502511827659102103854850544679735667367860431496942213564262129241771103328897196088400533760100067958355883811516499746373964654756464790572481606208577
Pb1A3dii286883060036000374363511140976394433936440914370803510045000462245009468994729908218889700865719138694147124920180069120750603294082806840068940
Pb2C7a357960539220495672635550469300374300438900499700435100435100491834451250368030273600659300526300499700340100722000571939662224676400674500680200771400862600877800874000874000
PbNATIONALTOTAL446285628351588430734973921531883262631006558712147230133649311159798984706581557284536778367997169606051542868114910047127503181163810410027857926603584550077332789661291261264476182566617667591491917997025
Cd2C7a207240312180286968367950271700216700254100289300251900251900284746261250213070158400381700304700289300196900418000331122383393391600390500393800446600499400508200506000506000
CdNATIONALTOTAL213387318568293545374898523058445678490099534225502689578371529868503309452754421400682739600380633408482457682118562208597598588043548677541069580824630537634908691804667211
Hg2C7a4333206527406000247693505681004531005313006049005267005267005953785462504455103312007981006371006049004117008740006923478016398188008165008234009338001044200106260010580001058000
HgNATIONALTOTAL4383526579306055687751615737744593715382196116215335405331516016105536484531933394968084146479066174374254978875597062668166958376208222528365309478421053176106892410718861071559