Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
NOx1A3dii12639134811586016493154681805217377173421802516336154641982520364220693039632156362083951838139402604147755034793304513306814512364830134
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891763147774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692100020101382102648
NMVOC2H268072694177076672111734607482276198775877896184458876977951484256808578121677136708117405866925819138491584134852648556986502854488744688345
NMVOC3B1b40103428044300042980425474316643271408984052340334400803994039565347154528847735488694977549573481925124255755620316440462985618476323772934
NMVOC3B4gi75808386861679600954494598891101311150411861106779186942899669698994596851060710455109731170413028139721463915469162691793420057
NMVOC3Da3167722174060252259176247176381166987170013164096168691169375165632156893148441157186151935158233164741157819152204149186157247169302188813196405199869199474201820222967
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL89322092091010913159472339711459745349941651001825100648810001091015656929740985918100901410128249978609950519878451001886102746310494521034000109407310391791039076107723010615381098974
SOx1A2e7301378795617117268173287770904812048768566295806054454587825133947198382394301036186265214171632063237945339371852721366419064328643000
NH32B10a44921362653832743404259704138441296344053986634641330322815132890317063197629877371213504734592333263715839901388543731237836315852569227164
NH33B4gi192672131721902824401242602404322599257532924230150271402335123965253322465125280246192696326576278912975133116355153721139321413534558650982
NH3NATIONALTOTAL585441580441789459612936565218557398573516545350563941574557557361520934478715525722518101554192566455580395540745571158606403643000713057755395704249673311682634739704

PM (Unit = Mg)
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
PM2.51A3dii109214001438155821462271255727912693284329293886562150233510252582128
PM102B10a435971363224477884456099416282422403470529468441435372490953575331570445549388523379301080522417469564516628
PM10NATIONALTOTAL704508600914741652722269689938694483749196754157748601817550906644870000888703779380550804806609721418764935