Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
NOx1A3dii126391348115860164931546818052173771734218025163361546419825203642206930396321563620839518381394026041477550347933045133068145123648
NOx1A4ci7947798180029857990710110106571104610942112441171011205113781155212415125271345514657185681820817850208052195116401205806186661428
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891777437774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692100020101382
NMVOC2H2680726941770766734607346074822761987758778961844588769779514842568085781216771367081174058669258191384915841348526485569865028544887446
NMVOC3B1b401034280443000425474254743166432714089840523403344008039940395653471545288477354886949775495734819251242557556203164404629856184763237
SOx1A2e73013787956171172681732877709048120487685662958060544545878251339471983823943010361862652141716320632379453393718527213664190643286

PM (Unit = Mg)
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
PM102B10a435971363224477884456099416282422403470529468441435372490953575331570445549388523379301080522417469564
PM10NATIONALTOTAL718793616160738641719145686681690823745388750013744122812895901283864124883131773240544429800269715446