Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A3dii1263913481158601649315468180521737717342180251633615464198252036422069303963215636208395183813940260414775503455034300003300015000
NOx1A4ci79477981800298579907101101065711046109421124411710112051137811552124151252713455146571856818208178502080521951164012058061866
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891763147774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692100020
NMVOC2H26807269417707667211173460748227619877587789618445887697795148425680857812168247974976772505774587093884878968990773920229325694510
NMVOC3B1b4010342804430004298042547431664327140915405234033440080399403956534715452884773548869497754957348192512425575562031644046298562000
NMVOC3Da11956719567195671956719567192761947018875191871871919640185611907719410196011876219052193772055018319184281842818428330443304420000
NMVOC5A45559876151982051925840311613353135852374433768737931381753833439476380753831038544378353712537988388503935539860416644346843468
SOx1A2e730137879561711554563883439644481204876856629580605445458782513394719838239430103618626521417163206323794533930785272136641906
NH33B247537475374634244138419103972938883355513460735573334993171229597299002963029751301182993728187255712714729430322443443036612370
CO1A3bii          305733263682251848248799250958169669158082137120130711121622112031147069104406827596680767353