Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
NOx1A2gviii17013204611998122656170162246835344443524576433694518382761646667601925235048776651187790335582329793283014717392707718937620
NMVOC2D3d720407346474891763147774379183806408211083564849659620065875801889478810649692117885228966190843921709364594917960649738698692
NMVOC2H268072694177076672111734607482276198775877896184458876977951484256808578121682479749767725057745870938848789689907739202293256
NMVOC3B1a716947169471562713177126370593711736697666054661916443763161587035861160295630326509866088650296421568082741698332286319109049
NMVOC3Da119567195671956719567195671927619470188751918718719196401856119077194101960118762190521937720550183191842818428184283304433044
NMVOC3Da3596405964058243560595414151749506384696845497448534227140704380013776237406376473810137524356513332235394383684224644494 
NMVOC5A455598761519820519258403116133531358523744337687379313817538334394763807538310385443783537125379883885039355398603986043468
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL8356568590318764209003858917679095019329849379939317449305449545488747758967299225829312659191759168249272399275789632479773279848801034196868184966927
SOx1A2e7301378795617115545638834396444812048768566295806054454587825133947198382394301036186265214171632063237945339307852721366
NH33B1a136011136011135760135296135193133921135023127060125310125572122243119824111366111191114386119579123497125376123367121822129159140707158071163755206878
NH33B247537475374634244138419103972938883355513460735573334993171229597299002963029751301182993728187255712714729430322443443036612
NH33B4d15460154601501514554137361308612856120301157210532103431008597389726949493619541902980347366903910453120031325014858
NH33Da197176894009771010815181535853509296494527112752120204103364917249719210860511067011113211392610981291773114396108783101979101979610902575667
NH3NATIONALTOTAL50990650148351023452171049012947245248335646974049963550652748211245186844718146505347845849589251293448884046011046734548464050616156227910897481084932