Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

RecalculationsKCA for CLRTAPInv. comparisonTime seriesTrend graphsAdd Comments

TIME SERIES

Party: TR      Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
NOx1A2gviii170132046119981226561701622468353444435245764336945183827616466676019252350487766511877903355823297932830147173927077189
NMVOC1A2gviii5563700460286463405655801235916033169691153621319104941903222870205401752924790300148392902379892657950510940
NMVOC1A4bi257957260482265533262212249067257311254675260999248495233811227639209786207630207141205712202000196078194581249003260820254740214840228125150309
NMVOC2D3d7204073464748917631477743791838064082110835648496596200658758018894788106496921178852289661908439217093645949179606497386
NMVOC2H2680726941770766721117346074822761987758778961844588769779514842568085781216824797497677250577458709388487896899077392022
NMVOC3Da1195671956719567195671956719276194701887519187187191964018561190771941019601187621905219377205501831918428184281842833044
NMVOC3Da3596405964058243560595414151749506384696845497448534227140704380013776237406376473810137524356513332235394383684224644494
NMVOC5A4555987615198205192584031161335313585237443376873793138175383343947638075383103854437835371253798838850393553986039860
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL8356568590318764209003858917679095019329849379939317449305449545488747758967299225829312659191759168249272399275789632479773279848801034196868184
SOx1A2gviii2101552680502378642316711440261875732406923090403044382231303311981711623010923437512933411736483017063765411595242367402682246036321080581806
SOxNATIONALTOTAL175034918388041878383176075317984231889834202431221918262266086218490323345102074517196481518879281880761210598922699512647732256141226651762561012264051127159111939104
NH33B2475374753746342441384191039729388833555134607355733349931712295972990029630297513011829937281872557127147294303224434430
NH33B4d154601546015015145541373613086128561203011572105321034310085973897269494936195419029803473669039104531200313250
NH33Da197176894009771010815181535853509296494527112752120204103364917249719210860511067011113211392610981291773114396108783101979101979610902
NH33Da3596405964058243560595414151749506384696845497448534227140704380013776237406376473810137524356513332235394383684224644494
NH3NATIONALTOTAL5099065014835102345217104901294724524833564697404996355065274821124518684471814650534784584958925129344888404601104673454846405061615622791089748
CO1A1a37094409394635042633518595223856152620337029874269788928130369947700917217792889962311137461214641186661173491323223988538820
CO1A1c64386587935691055420560055566755039581295920754389557834727346670538785830856919640855938373781652117082469216861889