Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: SK      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2a	5128	5134	5145	5154	5158	5206	5228	5257	5346	5542	6089	5523	6605	6295	5722	5751	7419	4887	3721	3465	3820	2832	3387	3298	3068	3067	2575	2191	2535	978	974
NOx	1A2f	5674	5678	5662	5665	5668	5654	5595	5671	5583	5489	5373	5829	5143	5179	5145	5029	5148	5024	5379	5110	4559	4887	4202	4394	4477	4602	4495	4319	3736	4370	4235
NOx	1A3bi	11015	10752	11337	12578	13202	13315	12959	13060	13655	13123	11078	12407	11175	10798	9951	10598	7503	7990	7346	6430	10345	8877	9577	9023	9400	11193	10991	11132	11076	10894	11110
NOx	1A4bi	5197	4927	4824	4023	3763	3622	3840	3667	3913	3987	3886	4257	3818	3951	3797	4146	3922	3726	3645	3568	4020	3659	3775	3692	2771	3292	3504	3667	3183	3294	3366
NOx	2C1	3257	2912	2720	2941	3057	2948	2694	2829	2854	3136	4054	4693	3195	3488	2955	2601	2331	2363	2244	1638	2298	2251	2515	2728	3209	3054	2796	3286	3586	2325	2527
NMVOC	2D3e	10524	10265	10007	9748	9489	9230	8971	8712	8454	8195	7936	6700	7940	8066	6443	6882	7044	5935	5580	4985	3737	8821	3036	4156	3808	4632	4011	2648	4410	3870	2259
SOx	1A1b	11236	11245	11232	11231	11251	11252	11181	11285	11284	11149	12261	12273	9992	10917	8653	8188	10473	7389	7129	8170	9058	6099	1975	697	1028	899	1493	2136	1992	1934	1203
SOx	1A2a	4383	4389	4398	4405	4409	4450	4468	4493	4570	4737	9787	4043	3408	3713	5025	4880	4925	4048	4082	4173	3981	2825	3877	3665	2790	2314	1978	1572	1347	553	603
SOx	2A6	185	185	185	185	185	186	185	186	187	187	245	128	127	182	301	485	488	760	625	339	312	294	323	304	305	353	422	427	447	421	445
SOx	2B10a	1618	1609	1608	1608	1605	1562	1599	1554	1498	1413	912	1184	1301	1296	1218	1067	1234	1257	1171	1049	1198	1336	1269	1395	1289	1363	1500	1402	1384	1324	1259
SOx	2C3	716	705	656	410	349	347	1184	1171	1148	1161	1178	1176	1293	1334	1376	1310	1324	1326	1362	1384	1383	2230	1392	1388	2079	1657	2845	2441	2061	2039	1815
NH3	3B3	6527	6249	5674	5100	4754	4950	4709	4474	3927	3688	3576	3599	3662	3362	2684	2545	2631	2258	1770	1670	1615	1343	1498	1457	1573	1528	1280	1342	1347	1289	1136
CO	11B	9119	7539	10448	19517	5326	6375	8856	6907	6777	44167	22302	10371	17330	33768	11737	21729	13733	22583	14203	20937	16574	16574	37931	12554	18692	20977	17352	19283	19041	22295	22295
CO	1A2f	11377	11385	11354	11358	11364	11337	11218	11371	11195	11006	9043	9891	10750	12160	11425	10289	9612	10852	16683	15486	12834	11329	9393	7973	9713	7689	7849	8850	10990	9389	9921
CO	2C3	5701	5608	5219	3265	2774	2757	9423	9320	9135	9237	7887	7865	10220	11618	13010	12991	12956	12942	13604	13470	13472	13545	13341	13307	14062	14239	18005	16552	16458	15581	13190

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	43624	42838	32435	32056	29640	36233	32445	28484	25572	23370	26208	24225	25821	23852	16160	20920	20923	21172	17247	17710	17483
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	43624	42838	32435	32056	29640	36233	32445	28484	25572	23370	26208	24225	25821	23852	16160	20920	20923	21172	17247	17710	17483
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	43624	42838	32435	32056	29640	36233	32445	28484	25572	23370	26208	24225	25821	23852	16160	20920	20923	21172	17247	17710	17483
PM10	3Dc	3573	3622	3436	3054	3532	3435	3213	3359	3429	3392	3090	3064	3221	3094	3170	3122	3212	3072	3200	3199	3148
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	53778	52896	42455	41527	38711	44967	40901	36195	33193	30749	32927	30711	32156	30303	22345	28656	27202	27738	23269	23832	23965
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	53778	52896	42455	41527	38711	44967	40901	36195	33193	30749	32927	30711	32156	30303	22345	28656	27202	27738	23269	23832	23965
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	53778	52896	42455	41527	38711	44967	40901	36195	33193	30749	32927	30711	32156	30303	22345	28656	27202	27738	23269	23832	23965
BC	1A2a	289	375	264	188	50	16	21	11	6	8	11	8	4	3	4	3	2	2	2	2	1
BC	1A4cii	83	85	67	78	81	85	79	79	83	75	77	78	78	74	84	73	72	67	67	62	63
BC	2G	64	81	71	65	81	300	77	188	95	67	108	107	109	95	101	103	103	110	108	115	96

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	20265927	19983704	20038770	21276663	18573160	17303832	16975022	18408531	20454603	19892702	23653598	15271853	17982778	7402860	8048440	8400999	711198	647642	756497	724584	958856	928719	981626	1012041	944731	969193	1003762	1020380	972686	831650	671067
Pb	1A2a	1378424	1382021	1386287	1387316	1386876	1413831	1410264	1418097	1461977	1545737	1459809	1672660	1846730	1919605	1842790	2087864	2135827	1796879	1711336	1324341	1390922	1399071	1541983	1524129	1374897	1356722	952783	969258	1236657	1101225	1039845
Pb	1A2d	1041034	1039625	1040640	1041719	1045950	1036704	1053186	1050561	1055849	1037293	1133008	1034744	1122340	1133394	1404385	1058808	1140966	1152157	1153630	1334014	681082	596769	563993	589881	528065	219097	492114	482780	471123	430017	566309
Pb	1A3bi	7617476	6907821	6710592	7024132	6967414	6794456	6468817	6548140	6857186	6475615	948	1094	1014	1023	977	1106	965	1045	1028	977	1166	1104	1139	1131	2747	1210	1245	1277	1280	1353	1364
Pb	1A4bi	1044680	946463	870271	680731	576693	499673	476854	381023	392025	367089	401602	400146	308748	348930	361656	477668	471616	493934	440963	412458	477109	451566	496946	467267	283615	406894	443441	444375	355928	378487	384161
Pb	1B1b	889200	852264	815328	778392	741456	704520	680960	657400	540070	574658	606830	607161	645951	676164	675392	661200	661203	661205	619405	562404	589002	577604	558604	547203	558603	581402	585203	566203	570002	501602	421801
Pb	2A3	272535	309229	345729	305378	264865	305355	303553	310044	381162	184784	301895	300028	324000	313621	314877	453967	445508	556722	589534	486583	502148	509398	465692	471039	459691	450730	453128	465090	468449	370475	547123
Pb	2C7a	761660	1115370	1482354	1211463	929275	737198	1427037	1477326	1157223	55325	5288	327936	256162	273384	586056	802584	318	346	378	302	493	522	522	82	115	157	188	179	186	219	208
Pb	2G	26809	24501	43680	65688	51042	92505	190956	173250	200655	532426	418023	398147	696063	495704	513122	613782	222145	271392	240664	263658	93192	519207	624428	793882	693247	769953	808045	1056910	792548	718406	258186
Pb	5C1biv																							77884	122890	332966	388632	12484		84078	127760	149820
Cd	1A1a	809705	774052	755201	780132	680712	632053	619648	664099	730569	714287	840005	576047	657303	315247	331793	341556	88819	80504	93120	89143	115805	111801	116749	119302	111164	113644	118375	120840	114856	97948	78903
Cd	1A2d	118423	118736	119006	119350	123173	121454	125214	130819	140890	129743	170898	177912	198959	204488	418760	257262	282827	301313	304524	318899	297063	286736	270656	283324	254246	105479	236936	232443	226830	207036	272659
Cd	1A4ai	41856	33530	26441	20506	15644	11769	8795	10596	6908	5466	3898	5532	5774	5443	7063	8873	9489	11957	17015	26480	51723	62166	79101	91615	91620	100534	94631	100116	91516	98013	94754
Cd	1A5a	4523	3832	3222	2688	2225	1827	1490	1207	974	785	473	414	344	292	226	215	189	191	541	205	165	182	18796	23187	25901	28554	25675	33915	11967	10829	10633
Cd	2C7a	329418	438220	525950	385440	262864	183462	308342	272463	178073	6880	507	31427	24549	26199	56164	76914	70391	76659	83726	66822	109296	115641	115641	2531	3556	4851	5788	5509	719	848	808
Cd	2G	3662	2308	6002	25417	19028	26034	30633	33201	31052	35253	29436	36830	32915	29772	37090	134556	34727	83867	42540	30092	48262	48416	49830	43851	46374	47216	47129	50938	49278	52367	43256
Cd	5C1biv																							24923	39325	106549	124362	3995		26905	40883	47942
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1621083	1694247	1739674	1654896	1432559	1309612	1450558	1454861	1439940	1246547	1412219	1215222	1300845	979431	1287473	1364715	1019880	1136334	1071116	1022635	1194895	1189828	1265986	1175013	1073426	1038814	1065451	1080532	1004936	982307	982763
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1621083	1694247	1739674	1654896	1432559	1309612	1450558	1454861	1439940	1246547	1412219	1215222	1300845	979431	1287473	1364715	1019880	1136334	1071116	1022635	1194895	1189828	1265986	1175013	1073426	1038814	1065451	1080532	1004936	982307	982763
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1621083	1694247	1739674	1654896	1432559	1309612	1450558	1454861	1439940	1246547	1412219	1215222	1300845	979431	1287473	1364715	1019880	1136334	1071116	1022635	1194895	1189828	1265986	1175013	1073426	1038814	1065451	1080532	1004936	982307	982763
Hg	1A1a	805294	752025	718324	725476	634174	588738	578270	613434	668493	657746	764705	558208	617310	338949	347688	353294	142555	129354	148840	142654	182947	176641	181647	184104	169826	173610	181311	186366	176091	151174	122821
Hg	5C1biii	95044	94901	94669	95239	95257	94061	95237	96946	92933	93320	102234	90610	73494	72055	78258	66228	1548	1907	1642	1445	1835	2559	1085	1067	1055	853	428	183	431	259	277
Hg	5C1bv	8954	9146	9338	9529	9721	10049	10378	10706	11034	11363	11217	11705	11364	11658	13945	15523	15793	17338	19649	11971	19619	18749	18924	23186	22712	25068	25191	21727	27213	30992	35802
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2261215	2125534	2100784	1948793	1819218	1736465	1712996	1753474	1834797	1824000	1902118	1639394	1661703	1232116	1238076	1247093	975885	950017	956014	871728	878796	897257	897977	904879	889255	918878	895071	901906	899831	857019	809262
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2261215	2125534	2100784	1948793	1819218	1736465	1712996	1753474	1834797	1824000	1902118	1639394	1661703	1232116	1238076	1247093	975885	950017	956014	871728	878796	897257	897977	904879	889255	918878	895071	901906	899831	857019	809262
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2261215	2125534	2100784	1948793	1819218	1736465	1712996	1753474	1834797	1824000	1902118	1639394	1661703	1232116	1238076	1247093	975885	950017	956014	871728	878796	897257	897977	904879	889255	918878	895071	901906	899831	857019	809262

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A1b	4551	4555	4550	4549	4561	4559	4532	4580	4587	4515	4554	3922	4247	4803	4893	4194	2980	2090	1361	1406	516	1887	1166	4379	1307	1242	1137	1343	758	837	528
DIOX	1A2c	4002	3936	3882	3836	3781	3649	3668	3558	3382	3184	3358	2718	2537	2688	2493	2594	963	2632	2458	2167	2358	2366	1921	1699	1351	1592	1638	1872	1788	1429	1487
DIOX	1A2d	2068	2067	2070	2073	2097	2076	2117	2140	2194	2115	2447	2336	2562	2604	3999	2742	2981	3084	3101	3430	2380	2209	2086	2182	1957	813	1824	1789	1746	1594	2098
DIOX	1B1b	7020	6728	6437	6145	5854	5562	5376	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5220	5220	4890	4440	4650	4560	4410	4320	4410	4590	4620	4470	4500	3960	3330
DIOX	2C1	35253	37292	39386	30769	30078	29171	29942	31353	28840	30725	32175	32851	31645	33759	33369	31958	32870	31141	28646	19018	23879	27223	29181	29622	34982	33849	33763	34313	33631	31226	23129
DIOX	2C7a	952	1504	2138	1857	1506	1257	2548	2754	2245	111	11	683	534	570	1221	1672	1985	2162	2362	1885	3083	3262	3262	1540	2164	2952	3523	3353	3479	4105	3907
HCB	1A2d	45104	45225	45329	45461	46933	46275	47717	49880	53763	49473	65296	68057	76127	78254	160764	98655	108471	115596	116834	122279	114218	110281	104096	108969	97786	40568	91129	89401	87242	79629	104868
HCB	2C1	119460	128030	136600	103650	100590	97530	101220	106080	96570	102750	107967	109884	104568	111618	109756	104835	106482	99987	92149	57955	74404	87604	94253	91811	113727	112208	111375	112432	109797	104043	75492
HCB	5C1biii	218319	217991	217458	218767	218807	216061	218764	222688	213470	214360	234834	215983	211765	200389	228336	228176	95530	117706	101339	89222	113252	157963	66964	65854	65103	52657	26420	11297	26619	15981	17071
PCB	1A1a	952373	952292	966222	1037626	905699	844738	828637	902858	1007222	977292	1167352	734173	876532	910203	1031139	1024085	1118391	997077	961423	1052312	1017494	1082115	957136	962292	1123261	1064234	1147921	1229291	1301975	1288331	1243070