Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2f	5674	5678	5662	5665	5668	5654	5595	5671	5583	5489	5373	5829	5143	5179	5145	5029	5148	5024	5379	5110	4559	4887	4202	4394	4477	4602	4495	4319	3736	4370
NOx	1A3bi	11015	10752	11337	12578	13202	13315	12959	13060	13655	13123	11078	12407	11175	10798	9951	10598	7503	7990	7346	6430	10345	8877	9577	9150	9180	9423	9948	10128	10543	10515
NOx	1A4bi	5197	4927	4824	4023	3763	3622	3840	3667	3913	3987	3886	4257	3818	3951	3797	4146	3922	3726	3645	3568	4020	3659	3775	3692	2754	3254	3479	3671	3174	3304
NOx	2C1	3257	2912	2720	2941	3057	2948	2694	2829	2854	3136	4054	4693	3195	3488	2955	2601	2331	2363	2244	1638	2298	2251	2515	2728	3209	3054	2796	3286	3586	2325
NMVOC	1B2b	8116	8047	8044	8026	8019	8093	8121	7758	8340	8613	7661	7395	7094	7342	8037	8164	7415	7305	7653	6514	7171	7436	5144	5898	5155	6076	6575	6980	6509	7607
NMVOC	2D3e	10524	10265	10007	9748	9489	9230	8971	8712	8454	8195	7936	6700	7940	8066	6443	6882	7044	5935	5580	4985	3737	8821	3036	4156	3808	4632	4011	2648	4410	3870
SOx	1A1b	11236	11245	11232	11231	11251	11252	11181	11285	11284	11149	12261	12273	9992	10917	8653	8188	10473	7389	7129	8170	9058	6099	1975	697	1028	899	1493	2136	1992	1934
SOx	2B10a	1618	1609	1608	1608	1605	1562	1599	1554	1498	1413	912	1184	1301	1296	1218	1067	1234	1257	1171	1049	1198	1336	1269	1395	1289	1363	1500	1402	1384	1324
SOx	2C3	716	705	656	410	349	347	1184	1171	1148	1161	1178	1176	1293	1334	1376	1310	1324	1326	1362	1384	1383	2230	1392	1388	2079	1657	2845	2441	2061	2039
NH3	3B3	6573	6293	5714	5142	4794	4989	4747	4507	3958	3716	3603	3623	3690	3388	2703	2563	2653	2289	1793	1693	1636	1361	1518	1479	1597	1551	1302	1364	1369	1310
CO	11B	9119	7539	10448	19517	5326	6375	8856	6907	6777	44167	22302	10371	17330	33768	11737	21729	13733	22583	14203	20937	16574	16574	37931	12554	18692	20977	17352	19283	19041	22295
CO	1A2f	11377	11385	11354	11358	11364	11337	11218	11371	11195	11006	9043	9891	10750	12160	11425	10289	9612	10852	16683	15486	12834	11329	9393	7973	9713	7689	7849	8850	10990	9389
CO	2C3	5701	5608	5219	3265	2774	2757	9423	9320	9135	9237	7887	7865	10220	11618	13010	12991	12956	12942	13604	13470	13472	13545	13341	13307	14062	14239	18005	16552	16458	15581

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
TSP	3B4gi	1129	1501	1208	1195	1101	1091	1113	1128	1084	1216	1218	1199	1220	1114	1103	1180	1188	1154	1203	1084
BC	2G	64	81	71	65	81	300	77	188	95	67	108	107	109	95	101	103	103	110	108	115

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	20283520	19998056	20050545	21286694	18581886	17311782	16982659	18416414	20461445	19899672	23635774	15260277	17971637	7400822	8049362	8395225	704965	643668	685493	626736	670176	669198	647546	622608	577642	619390	566918	562733	525162	458325
Pb	1A2a	1378424	1382021	1386287	1387316	1386876	1413831	1410264	1418097	1461977	1545737	1459809	1672660	1846730	1919605	1842790	2087864	2135827	1796879	1711336	1324341	1390922	1399071	1541983	1524129	1374897	1356722	952783	969258	1236657	1101225
Pb	1A2d	1041034	1039625	1040640	1041719	1045950	1036704	1053186	1050561	1055849	1037293	1133008	1034744	1122340	1133394	1404385	1058808	1140966	1152157	1153630	1334014	681082	596769	563993	589881	529002	220030	492114	483314	471764	430017
Pb	1A3bi	7617476	6907821	6710592	7024132	6967414	6794456	6468817	6548140	6857186	6475615	948	1094	1014	1023	977	1106	965	1045	1028	977	1166	1104	1139	1089	1041	1079	1147	1183	1200	1314
Pb	1A4bi	1044680	946463	870271	680731	576693	499673	476854	381023	392025	367089	401602	400146	308748	348930	361656	477668	471616	493934	440963	412458	477109	451566	496946	467267	279259	397483	437290	445362	353623	378667
Pb	1B1b	889200	852264	815328	778392	741456	704520	680960	657400	540070	574658	606830	607161	645951	676164	675392	661200	661203	661205	619405	562404	589002	577604	558604	547203	558603	581402	585203	566203	570002	501602
Pb	2A3	272535	309229	345729	305378	264865	305355	303553	310044	381162	184784	301895	300028	324000	313621	314877	453967	445508	556722	589534	486583	502148	509398	465692	471039	459691	450730	453128	465090	468449	370475
Pb	2C7a	761660	1115370	1482354	1211463	929275	737198	1427037	1477326	1157223	55325	5288	327936	256162	273384	586056	802584	318	346	378	302	493	522	522	82	115	157	188	179	186	219
Pb	2G	26809	24501	43680	65688	51042	92505	190956	173250	200655	532426	418023	398147	696063	495704	513122	613782	222145	271392	240664	263658	93192	519207	624428	793882	693247	769953	808045	1056910	792548	718406
Cd	1A1a	811826	775783	756621	781334	681752	632993	620549	665022	731373	715075	837814	574617	655932	314979	331883	340862	88004	80009	84563	77384	81612	81221	77733	74215	68876	73441	67972	67828	63347	55270
Cd	1A2d	118423	118736	119006	119350	123173	121454	125214	130819	140890	129743	170898	177912	198959	204488	418760	257262	282827	301313	304524	318899	297063	286736	270656	283324	254698	105928	236936	232700	227138	207036
Cd	1A4ai	41856	33530	26441	20506	15644	11769	8795	10596	6908	5466	3898	5532	5774	5443	7063	8873	9489	11957	17015	26480	51723	62166	79101	91615	91620	100534	94631	100116	91516	98013
Cd	1A5a	4523	3832	3222	2688	2225	1827	1490	1207	974	785	473	414	344	292	226	215	189	191	541	205	165	182	18796	23187	25901	28554	25675	33915	11967	10829
Cd	1B2aiv	31728	25829	22323	21830	24529	26359	26788	27163	27795	27688	27754	28045	28647	28846	29136	28550	28769	30370	29820	29070	27810	30554	27535	29942	26622	30368	29264	28341	27833	26056
Cd	2C1	90198	83933	80743	81143	83321	80609	75573	79167	78284	85093	88450	93203	85391	75192	75945	79372	85176	80395	68982	62129	77714	72964	74793	85125	80881	74386	77689	82069	77137	60747
Cd	2C7a	329418	438220	525950	385440	262864	183462	308342	272463	178073	6880	507	31427	24549	26199	56164	76914	70391	76659	83726	66822	109296	115641	115641	2531	3556	4851	5788	5509	719	848
Cd	2G	3662	2308	6002	25417	19028	26034	30633	33201	31052	35253	29436	36830	32915	29772	37090	134556	34727	83867	42540	30092	48262	48416	49830	43851	46374	47216	47129	50938	49278	52367
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1620343	1694084	1739783	1654220	1432150	1309152	1450148	1454479	1439537	1246163	1415137	1213512	1299127	978861	1287186	1363780	1018665	1135657	1062298	1010719	1160489	1159095	1202606	1090487	922116	867986	1006868	1028681	924981	899676
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1620343	1694084	1739783	1654220	1432150	1309152	1450148	1454479	1439537	1246163	1415137	1213512	1299127	978861	1287186	1363780	1018665	1135657	1062298	1010719	1160489	1159095	1202606	1090487	922116	867986	1006868	1028681	924981	899676
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1620343	1694084	1739783	1654220	1432150	1309152	1450148	1454479	1439537	1246163	1415137	1213512	1299127	978861	1287186	1363780	1018665	1135657	1062298	1010719	1160489	1159095	1202606	1090487	922116	867986	1006868	1028681	924981	899676
Hg	1A1a	808736	754844	720650	727448	635894	590296	579787	614985	669880	659066	761227	556167	615101	338537	347856	352206	141537	128418	135133	123497	128910	128263	121052	115413	105226	112241	104245	104476	97332	85409
Hg	1A1c	212954	212517	212782	213210	212766	211556	214947	212808	210305	213540	222985	197839	216938	232918	213867	217005	209315	207916	192267	188304	194839	185682	186436	183995	186315	193749	194187	178250	182822	167764
Hg	1B2aiv	31728	25829	22323	21830	24529	26359	26788	27163	27795	27688	27754	28045	28647	28846	29136	28550	28769	30370	29820	29070	27810	30554	27535	29942	26622	30368	29264	28341	27833	26056
Hg	5C1biii	95044	94901	94669	95239	95257	94061	95237	96946	92933	93320	102234	90610	73494	72055	78258	66228	1548	1907	1642	1445	1835	2559	1085	1067	1055	853	428	183	431	259
Hg	5C1bv	8954	9146	9338	9529	9721	10049	10378	10706	11034	11363	11217	11705	11364	11658	13945	15523	15793	17338	19649	11971	19619	18749	18924	23186	22712	25068	25191	21727	27213	30992
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2264659	2128353	2103111	1950766	1820939	1738025	1714515	1755027	1836186	1825321	1898874	1637356	1659379	1231619	1238111	1245923	974709	949042	942173	852522	824694	848836	833789	830399	808983	838990	817007	820004	817061	785375
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2264659	2128353	2103111	1950766	1820939	1738025	1714515	1755027	1836186	1825321	1898874	1637356	1659379	1231619	1238111	1245923	974709	949042	942173	852522	824694	848836	833789	830399	808983	838990	817007	820004	817061	785375
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2264659	2128353	2103111	1950766	1820939	1738025	1714515	1755027	1836186	1825321	1898874	1637356	1659379	1231619	1238111	1245923	974709	949042	942173	852522	824694	848836	833789	830399	808983	838990	817007	820004	817061	785375

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	11B	606	494	616	1043	387	453	582	506	498	2270	1270	710	1034	1821	820	1387	949	1371	1012	1323	1152	1152	1990	806	1309	1397	1216	1297	1	1436
DIOX	1A1b	4551	4555	4550	4549	4561	4559	4532	4580	4587	4515	4554	3922	4247	4803	4893	4194	2980	2090	1361	1406	516	1887	1166	4379	1307	1242	1137	1343	758	837
DIOX	1A2c	4002	3936	3882	3836	3781	3649	3668	3558	3382	3184	3399	2718	2537	2688	2493	2594	963	2632	2458	2167	2358	2366	1926	1699	1353	1592	1640	1872	1788	1429
DIOX	1A2d	2068	2067	2070	2073	2097	2076	2117	2140	2194	2115	2447	2336	2562	2604	3999	2742	2981	3084	3101	3430	2380	2209	2086	2182	1960	816	1824	1791	1748	1594
DIOX	1B1b	7020	6728	6437	6145	5854	5562	5376	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5220	5220	4890	4440	4650	4560	4410	4320	4410	4590	4620	4470	4500	3960
DIOX	2C1	35253	37292	39386	30769	30078	29171	29942	31353	28840	30725	32175	32851	31645	33759	33369	31958	31099	29486	27249	17760	22257	25729	27645	28003	33377	32296	32125	32603	32046	29991
DIOX	2C7a	952	1504	2138	1857	1506	1257	2548	2754	2245	111	11	683	534	570	1221	1672	1985	2162	2362	1885	3083	3262	3262	1540	2164	2952	3523	3353	3479	4105
HCB	1A2d	45104	45225	45329	45461	46933	46275	47717	49880	53763	49473	65296	68057	76127	78254	160764	98655	108471	115596	116834	122279	114218	110281	104096	108969	97960	40741	91129	89499	87360	79629
HCB	2C1	119460	128030	136600	103650	100590	97530	101220	106080	96570	102750	107967	109884	104568	111618	109756	104835	106482	99987	92149	57955	74404	87604	94253	91811	113727	112208	111375	112432	109797	104043
HCB	5C1biii	218319	217991	217458	218767	218807	216061	218764	222688	213470	214360	234834	215983	211765	200389	228336	228176	95530	117706	101339	89222	113252	157963	66964	65854	65103	52657	26420	11297	26619	15981
PCB	1A1a	952369	952288	966219	1037623	905697	844736	828636	902857	1007220	977290	1167345	734168	876527	910200	1031138	1024082	1118388	997075	961402	1052286	1017421	1082051	957053	962196	1123170	1064150	1147815	1229175	1301861	1288241