Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2a	5128	5134	5145	5154	5158	5206	5228	5257	5346	5542	6089	5523	6605	6295	5722	5751	7419	4887	3721	3465	3820	2832	3387	3298	3068	3067	2575	2191	2535
NOx	1A3bi	11015	10752	11337	12578	13202	13315	12959	13060	13655	13123	11078	12407	11175	10798	9951	10598	7503	7990	7346	6430	10345	8877	9577	9150	9180	9423	9948	10128	10543
NOx	2C1	4323	3889	3636	3918	4071	3932	3606	3780	3812	4175	4054	4694	3195	3489	2955	2601	2331	2364	2245	1639	2299	2252	2515	2728	3209	3054	2796	3286	3586
NMVOC	1B2b	8116	8047	8044	8026	8019	8093	8121	7758	8340	8613	7661	7395	7094	7342	8037	8164	7415	7305	7653	6514	7171	7436	5144	5898	5155	6076	6575	6980	6509
NMVOC	2D3e	10849	10578	10307	10036	9765	9493	9222	8951	8680	8409	8138	6889	8117	8231	6595	6961	7143	6100	5710	5073	3844	8914	3137	4156	3808	4632	4011	2648	2750
SOx	1A2a	4383	4389	4398	4405	4409	4450	4468	4493	4570	4737	9787	4043	3408	3713	5025	4880	4925	4048	4082	4173	3981	2825	3877	3665	2790	2314	1978	1572	1347
SOx	2B10a	1686	1677	1676	1675	1672	1627	1667	1619	1560	1472	912	1184	1301	1296	1218	1067	1234	1257	1171	1049	1198	1336	1269	1395	1289	1363	1500	1402	1384
SOx	2C1	11023	9916	9272	9989	10381	10026	9194	9637	9720	10645	11029	10114	7476	7198	7981	7467	7519	6613	5069	3074	3817	4639	4445	3591	3635	4894	4428	6283	4481
NH3	3B3	6726	6420	5820	5215	4824	5033	4789	4445	3826	3741	3609	3692	3722	3452	2771	2617	2711	2355	1854	1740	1696	1396	1561	1502	1619	1596	1333	1401	1416
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	64541	56753	48791	43462	44529	42645	43190	45395	38869	37120	37257	38620	39531	37902	35024	3875	33679	34884	32096	33003	32059	30855	32823	32681	33198	32579	33115	34723	30125
CO	11B	9119	7539	10448	19517	5326	6375	8856	6907	6777	44167	22302	10371	17330	33768	11737	21729	13733	22583	14203	20937	16574	19874	37931	12554	18692	20977	17352	19283	19041
CO	1A2f	11377	11385	11354	11358	11364	11337	11218	11371	11195	11006	9043	9891	10750	12160	11425	10289	9612	10852	16683	15486	12834	11329	9393	7973	9713	7689	7849	8850	10990
CO	2C1	72039	64805	60594	65284	67846	65524	60088	62983	63525	69573	72082	67801	71867	89213	91310	78015	93848	87417	78264	53071	71392	84355	83516	85327	98953	97634	96748	100839	89036
CO	2C7c	16095	16515	16741	17137	17579	17495	17769	18071	18502	18922	7974	8081	10399	12436	17322	17097	17733	17768	17919	17629	18435	17825	16636	14845	15613	17075	20992	19455	18836

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
TSP	3B4gi	1129	1501	1208	1195	1101	1091	1113	1128	1084	1216	1218	1199	1220	1114	1103	1180	1188	1154	1203
BC	2G	64	81	71	65	81	300	77	188	95	67	108	107	109	95	101	103	103	110	108

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	19512415	19513169	19786813	21188442	18599763	17406948	17081921	18544311	20591330	19997332	23703590	15254215	17965301	7400823	8049362	8395224	704800	643535	685314	625814	670051	669119	647468	622524	575155	617987	566684	560718	524069
Pb	1A2a	1378424	1382021	1386287	1387316	1386876	1413831	1410264	1418097	1461977	1545737	1459809	1672660	1846730	1919605	1842790	2087864	2135827	1796879	1711336	1324341	1390922	1399071	1541983	1524129	1374897	1356722	952783	969258	1236657
Pb	1A2d	1041034	1039625	1040640	1041719	1045950	1036704	1053186	1050561	1055849	1037293	1133008	1034744	1122340	1133394	1404385	1058808	1140966	1152157	1153630	1334014	681082	596769	563993	589881	528065	219097	492114	482780	471123
Pb	1A2f	714044	716065	712478	718041	719835	720971	713026	752374	724269	742162	763240	882692	668064	1027044	1015457	1097733	962269	962666	1168639	966960	900867	897689	828411	568118	579096	604118	564703	601616	574367
Pb	1A3bi	7617476	6907821	6710592	7024132	6967414	6794456	6468817	6548140	6857186	6475615	948	1094	1014	1023	977	1106	965	1045	1028	977	1166	1104	1139	1089	1041	1079	1147	1183	1200
Pb	2C7a	723577	1038825	1354073	1085746	817418	636671	1210433	1231105	947726	44541	4187	259616	202795	216429	463961	635379	838318	912969	997129	787778	1301652	1377218	1130627	589323	840560	1246571	1487493	1415500	1468871
Pb	2G	26809	24501	43680	65688	51042	92505	190956	173250	200655	532426	418023	398147	696063	495704	513122	613782	222145	271392	240664	263658	93192	519207	624428	793882	693247	769953	808045	1056910	792548
Cd	1A1a	711672	711760	720623	766413	681732	642989	631572	679901	746719	726713	845956	574099	655391	314979	331883	340862	87990	79998	84548	77306	81601	81215	77727	74208	68664	73323	67953	67657	63254
Cd	1A2d	118423	118736	119006	119350	123173	121454	125214	130819	140890	129743	170898	177912	198959	204488	418760	257262	282827	301313	304524	318899	297063	286736	270656	283324	254246	105479	236936	232443	226830
Cd	2C7a	418913	601425	783937	628590	473242	368599	700777	712745	548683	25787	2424	150304	117407	125301	268609	367851	485342	528561	577285	456082	753588	797337	654573	341187	486640	721699	861180	819500	850399
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1522237	1725203	1894774	1810015	1576882	1433157	1778200	1826273	1739103	1187720	1341733	1251238	1329105	1041668	1447415	1500719	1383909	1488316	1503786	1355391	1744065	1773410	1667226	1347922	1379557	1504803	1784178	1740106	1681672
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1522237	1725203	1894774	1810015	1576882	1433157	1778200	1826273	1739103	1187720	1341733	1251238	1329105	1041668	1447415	1500719	1383909	1488316	1503786	1355391	1744065	1773410	1667226	1347922	1379557	1504803	1784178	1740106	1681672
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1522237	1725203	1894774	1810015	1576882	1433157	1778200	1826273	1739103	1187720	1341733	1251238	1329105	1041668	1447415	1500719	1383909	1488316	1503786	1355391	1744065	1773410	1667226	1347922	1379557	1504803	1784178	1740106	1681672
Hg	1A1a	667296	667445	674652	712311	642522	610911	600594	640951	695913	678783	774580	555811	614740	338596	347858	352160	141343	128402	135168	123761	128977	128382	121028	114639	105031	112158	104266	104534	97201
Hg	1A1c	213279	212842	213107	213514	213075	211860	215211	213018	210587	213644	222985	197839	216938	232918	213867	217005	209315	207916	192267	188304	194839	185682	186436	183995	186315	193749	194187	178250	182822
Hg	5C1biii	387016	369419	351102	332341	313969	297853	276605	237592	218184	198682	167018	162981	127192	91940	69139	97773	7725	3551	3803	6150	15221	15543	10994	13649	13621	14671	16589	22798	17366

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A2d	2068	2067	2070	2073	2097	2076	2117	2140	2194	2115	2447	2336	2562	2604	3999	2742	2981	3084	3101	3430	2380	2209	2086	2182	1957	813	1824	1789	1746
DIOX	1A2gviii	4638	4614	4598	4616	4436	4415	4383	4374	4364	4278	4394	4339	4182	4107	3988	7244	4254	5163	4458	4003	4227	4275	3776	3144	2808	3237	3233	4075	3131
DIOX	1B1b	7020	6728	6437	6145	5854	5562	5376	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5220	5220	4890	4440	4650	4560	4410	4320	4410	4590	4620	4470	4500
DIOX	5C1biii	286679	273644	260076	246179	232569	220632	204892	176653	162373	147988	123786	120806	94654	68856	51998	70698	4017	568	588	3372	8928	8714	5678	6731	7053	8197	7877	8083	8100
HCB	1A2d	45104	45225	45329	45461	46933	46275	47717	49880	53763	49473	65296	68057	76127	78254	160764	98655	108471	115596	116834	122279	114218	110281	104096	108969	97786	40568	91129	89401	87242
HCB	5C1biii	716697	684109	650189	615447	581423	551580	512231	479931	449838	417396	365996	358782	314896	268359	227337	273538	113572	142026	146978	154967	199511	256096	172801	178014	179219	267255	262427	298950	274699
PCB	1A1a	952151	952151	966144	1037595	905700	844761	828661	902889	1007254	977313	1167360	734167	876526	910200	1031138	1024082	1118388	997075	961402	1052286	1017421	1082051	957053	962196	1123170	1064150	1147815	1229175	1301861