Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2a	5870	5803	5794	5847	5901	5955	6009	6065	6119	6175	6089	5523	6605	6295	5722	5751	7419	4887	3721	3465	3820	2832	3387	3298	3068	3067	2575	2191
NOx	1A3bi	11015	10752	11337	12578	13202	13315	12959	13060	13655	13123	11078	12407	11175	10798	9951	10598	7503	7990	7346	6430	10285	8829	9534	9111	9153	10240	9931	10144
NOx	2A1	3989	2828	3560	2802	3038	3145	2998	3309	4964	4978	2985	3597	3069	3128	3307	3387	3413	3378	3909	3501	2937	3599	3013	3169	3247	3352	3313	3275
NMVOC	2D3e	10849	10578	10307	10036	9765	9493	9222	8951	8680	8409	8138	6889	8117	8231	6595	6961	7143	6100	5710	5073	3844	8914	3137	4156	3808	4632	4011	2648
SOx	1A1a	89889	76478	67746	61442	55466	54419	54372	53828	54093	55250	58791	71440	58141	60246	56013	51993	48422	38781	40918	38130	43155	45193	39349	36173	29254	50899	9237	8648
SOx	1A2a	5017	4960	4953	4998	5043	5090	5136	5184	5230	5278	9787	4043	3408	3713	5025	4880	4925	4048	4082	4173	3981	2825	3877	3665	2790	2314	1978	1572
SOx	2B10a	1815	1676	1635	1593	1552	1511	1470	1429	1388	1347	914	1186	1302	1297	1219	1068	1235	1259	1172	1049	1199	1337	1270	1397	1290	1364	1502	1403
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	239265	216642	178956	156215	138710	133721	122945	119624	114785	112228	116679	122840	99137	101847	93042	86003	84576	68983	67612	62754	67750	67051	57014	51744	44473	66784	26382	27037
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	239265	216642	178956	156215	138710	133721	122945	119624	114785	112228	116679	122840	99137	101847	93042	86003	84576	68983	67612	62754	67750	67051	57014	51744	44473	66784	26382	27037
NH3	3B1a	4459	4024	3315	3139	3030	2922	2734	3333	2973	2791	2697	2560	2559	2382	2241	2205	2051	1999	1928	1799	1764	1707	1663	1601	1579	1525	822	799
CO	11B	9119	7539	10448	19517	5326	6375	8856	6907	6777	44167	22302	10371	17330	33768	11737	21729	13733	22583	14203	20937	16574	19874	37931	12554	18692	20977	17352	19283
CO	2C7c	20231	20398	20311	20417	20560	20081	20007	19951	20023	20065	7974	8081	10399	12436	17322	17097	17733	17768	17919	17629	18435	17825	16636	14845	15613	17075	20992	19455

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
TSP	3B4gi	1129	1501	1208	1195	1101	1091	1113	1128	1084	1216	1218	1199	1220	1114	1103	1180	1188	1154
BC	2G	64	81	71	65	81	300	77	188	95	67	108	107	109	95	101	103	103	110

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1c	950250	947530	944810	942090	939370	936650	933929	931209	928489	925769	995998	883679	968990	1040369	955271	969288	934939	928692	859186	841611	870802	829902	833248	822311	832498	865686	867889	796720
Pb	1A2a	27138944	25055774	22972603	22802619	22632635	22167073	22992142	24096208	21934619	23340183	24520087	24962754	23769923	25376612	24951288	23835351	24223620	11801561	10871093	6864107	8804551	10334233	11115877	10834208	13399479	13218050	13129297	13289511
Pb	1A2d	2569459	2332088	2120533	1931983	1764071	1614429	1480689	1360542	1251446	1151207	810475	694499	739740	738977	560987	547850	576716	548692	542866	698865	65943	1276	1914	1510	102	125	101	56191
Pb	1A3bi	7617476	6907821	6710592	7024132	6967414	6794456	6468817	6548140	6857186	6475615	948	1094	1014	1023	977	1106	965	1045	1028	977	1176	1112	1149	1096	1078	1146	1171	1196
Pb	1A4ai	2282658	1966591	1682135	1427605	1202006	1002782	827928	1628323	951001	676573	447375	357610	295817	222803	183547	166359	148508	145141	144594	221554	270206	263775	285040	321138	294816	297236	287778	298540
Pb	2A1	6970827	5022975	3075123	2072634	1070145	728720	473715	513468	587305	560659	487618	330600	252096	268882	188473	189090	221525	220340	210510	140043	125219	149991	134950	178418	280724	223728	241819	241819
Pb	2C1	1319004	1183626	1048248	1072536	1096824	1092408	954408	961584	966426	1002979	1048616	1123949	1217314	1297090	1259598	1268227	1438808	1428091	1272914	1101336	1366210	1196524	1247561	1273887	1324535	1189767	1350828	1133792
Pb	2C7a	109527	6368956	12628385	10168979	7709573	7176757	11129807	11132936	8351913	323791	634	2951472	2320402	2544664	5402489	7456136	9802183	10852820	11699505	9136499	14985026	15865406	12953984	6823738	9748079	14344141	17226955	16441209
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	65953693	67983704	70774317	64882516	58828011	54602855	61795570	61913064	55151866	46556843	44909613	49374992	48673560	49144856	51543928	53611751	51818755	34795580	34255188	24912176	35795220	35595981	33198804	27338466	32653078	37396926	43285312	43683845
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	65953693	67983704	70774317	64882516	58828011	54602855	61795570	61913064	55151866	46556843	44909613	49374992	48673560	49144856	51543928	53611751	51818755	34795580	34255188	24912176	35795220	35595981	33198804	27338466	32653078	37396926	43285312	43683845
Cd	1A4ai	51055	42534	35090	28658	23365	18868	14991	24674	14948	11007	6460	5125	4362	3521	3117	6095	7042	10994	14524	23498	48001	63410	79945	98507	103235	112257	112269	115420
Cd	2A3	7337622	8181447	9025271	7061133	5096995	8562837	7835096	8960208	6399822	5601938	6128951	6132112	3959255	4668281	5571477	4829155	4525978	52023	54750	41368	50294	40529	49605	54400	52403	55537	57267	58107
Cd	2C7a		59152	118305	95152	72000	68295	83160	83160	72690			37500	27550	54021	97845	153825	188430	273795	237269	145155	192525	207968	143380	104565	158025	186165	264169	269715
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	8066231	8920223	9736378	7741954	5737246	9178941	8469777	9585504	6976080	6114037	6658160	6719922	4546702	5344290	6283184	5697839	5433632	1065785	991951	803705	959273	939992	969475	920437	913248	980574	1118322	1215377
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	8066231	8920223	9736378	7741954	5737246	9178941	8469777	9585504	6976080	6114037	6658160	6719922	4546702	5344290	6283184	5697839	5433632	1065785	991951	803705	959273	939992	969475	920437	913248	980574	1118322	1215377
Hg	1A1c	56022	55862	55701	55541	55381	55220	55060	54900	54739	54579	58719	52097	57127	61335	56318	57145	55120	54751	50654	49617	51338	48927	49124	48479	49080	51037	51167	46971
Hg	1A2a	3812134	3468315	3124496	2748906	2373316	2411450	2411336	2424320	2673972	2713865	3323599	2557391	2001999	1471646	1862892	1611883	2157029	1768365	1964077	354302	435327	430878	456646	461006	517940	504783	524767	619675
Hg	1A2d	151116	137147	124704	113620	103757	94974	87130	80096	73704	67841	49085	41499	44290	44000	33507	32589	35385	33907	33549	42584	5596	1744	1589	721	528	586	688	1649
Hg	2A1	1431333	1031377	631421	425578	219735	149629	97269	105431	120592	115121	100124	67883	51763	55210	38699	38826	45486	45243	43224	28755	25711	30798	27710	36635	57642	45939	49653	49653
Hg	2B10a	67400	67200	67000	48500	30000	400000	42795	300000	310000	310000	300000	369000	361000	381592	448200	477000	383800	173733	170302	178044	173477	173212	163100	164993	159403	117739	91860	50157
Hg	2C7a	12180086	8176531	4172975	3279598	2386220	112853	3890105	4238080	3625660	262293	70475	52602	11304	216	11905	615	754	1095	949	581	770	832	574	418	632	745	1057	1079
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	18765180	13923071	9081292	7486708	5909745	3917359	7249940	7872475	7475009	4117886	4519945	3762644	3091002	2563321	2988336	2852710	3204815	2587791	2770695	1114991	1194815	1159560	1182055	1183073	1204500	1163161	1186109	1250000
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	18765180	13923071	9081292	7486708	5909745	3917359	7249940	7872475	7475009	4117886	4519945	3762644	3091002	2563321	2988336	2852710	3204815	2587791	2770695	1114991	1194815	1159560	1182055	1183073	1204500	1163161	1186109	1250000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	11B	609	497	622	1057	387	454	583	507	498	2288	1274	711	1036	1828	820	1389	949	1373	1013	1324	1153	1293	1993	806	1309	1398	1216	1298
DIOX	1B1b	7020	6728	6437	6145	5854	5562	5376	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5220	5220	4890	4440	4650	4560	4410	4320	4410	4590	4620	4470
DIOX	2C1	4112	3970	3829	3688	3547	3405	3574	3742	3870	2823	3497	3955	3894	4043	4319	4417	4733	4851	4672	4209	6382	4534	4554	4155	4443	4013	3858	4511
HCB	1A2a	182720	173677	164634	155590	146547	137504	142224	146944	141329	148189	163257	152854	132628	124297	126836	120098	120739	113811	103260	61819	79364	93444	100537	97931	121309	119689	118800	119928
HCB	1A2b	177528	224094	270660	243438	212940	177567	196892	216216	188994	158496	127998	97500	71631	140455	254397	399945	489918	711867	616899	377403	343200	540716	372789	271869	410865	484029	686840	701259
HCB	5C1bi	341723	292912	280910	231187	244549	220648	230242	224647	205973	200915	213159	211504	220822	229752	215176	301099	293322	249730	194374	82111	283756	106060	197387	171956	162833	133258	101670	132885
PCB	1A2a	7587504	7213214	6840673	6468132	6095591	5716053	5903291	6090530	5841751	6127043	6742140	6321649	5505762	5181598	5282610	5007371	5051092	4765829	4324489	2615439	3350673	3917413	4208849	4107572	5068414	4996111	4965137	5016307
PCB	1A2d	3227275	2926352	2658156	2419125	2206255	2016543	1846987	1694582	1556326	1429215	1015374	868139	925402	924854	697745	684494	722389	686887	680108	876562	83614	1575	2390	1857	0	0	0	125
PCB	5C1bi	1139075	976373	936368	770622	815164	735492	767472	748822	686576	669717	710531	705014	736074	765842	717253	1003664	977740	832432	647913	273705	945855	353533	657958	573186	542776	444192	338899	442951