Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2a	10636	10283	9930	9577	9224	8871	8519	8167	7815	7463	6089	5523	6605	6295	5722	5751	7419	4887	3721	3465	3820	2832	3387	3298	3068	3067	2575
NOx	1A3bi	14574	12149	11024	10842	11411	11794	11479	11343	11434	10720	10742	12092	10766	10435	9539	9918	7029	7312	6792	5953	8467	7206	7719	7397	7429	10196	7179
NOx	2A1	3989	2828	3560	2802	3038	3145	2998	3309	4964	4978	2985	3597	3069	3313	3307	3387	3413	3378	3909	3501	2937	3599	3013	3169	3247	3352	3313
NMVOC	2B10a	5659	5087	4751	4426	4112	3808	3515	3233	2961	2700	3301	2573	2287	505	798	1397	578	500	1272	887	614	856	688	711	575	578	505
NMVOC	2D3e	10776	10509	10243	9976	9710	9443	9176	8910	8643	8377	8110	6889	8117	8231	6595	6961	7143	6100	5710	5073	3844	8914	3095	4156	3808	4632	4239
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	418025	383067	342521	303125	279407	265553	181332	171399	158552	145898	125981	130577	103064	104144	95856	88718	87665	70725	69597	64245	69394	68487	58407	53299	45355	67664	27147
NH3	3B3	6868	6679	6338	5972	5478	5753	5447	5110	4375	4314	4093	4226	4230	3951	3167	3059	3087	2692	2111	2112	1936	1560	1758	1659	1786	1781	1486
CO	1A4bi	41333	41479	41508	36764	35734	36208	38652	38148	41419	42638	53792	50178	33815	33811	34753	41766	40882	37018	37367	36181	35953	37710	38172	38505	35701	37487	34507
CO	2C7c	19949	20124	20049	20164	20312	19848	19781	19726	19791	19827	7974	8081	10399	20992	17322	17097	17733	17768	17919	17629	18435	17825	16636	14845	15613	17075	20992

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	31376	32844	28649	27418	28983	38012	32721	28830	28798	28332	27781	29159	29380	29744	28605	29506	26753
BC	1A3c	44	43	40	32	31	30	32	30	28	24	25	24	20	25	23	26	0
BC	2C2	30	11	9	1	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1c	1084998	1074709	1064420	1054132	1043843	1033554	1023265	1012976	1002688	992399	996001	883681	968993	1040484	955336	969294	934944	928704	858808	841091	870287	829382	832752	821846	832208	865414	867369
Pb	1A2a	27138944	25055774	22972603	22802619	22632635	22167073	22992142	24096208	21934619	23340183	24520087	24962754	23769923	25376612	24951288	23835351	24223620	11801561	10871093	6864107	8804551	10334233	11115877	10834208	13399479	13218050	13129297
Pb	1A2c	2159621	2657713	2957004	3084897	3066514	2925245	2687299	2377204	2019526	1640552	3882	2914	1965	2538	1818	1299	879	525	1494	1048	903	908	1884	1477	4596	3490	2312
Pb	1A3bi	6038445	5947923	6285303	7043029	7348767	7307863	6885900	6932353	7082370	6686545	981	1137	1052	1066	1019	1148	1011	1092	1086	1039	1186	1128	1163	1112	1097	1290	1209
Pb	1A4bi	7284347	6706546	6183601	4862285	3902852	3415085	2681495	2037312	2261029	1988546	2140106	1929272	1211002	1204078	1129090	1279617	1301989	1109500	1020946	1060762	1071889	1106397	1133008	1120885	1020946	1083058	1012675
Pb	1B1b	1313280	1391940	1445330	1373434	1423024	1428458	1487396	1487396	1501380	1446470	1386734	1301120	1292380	1168587	1121711	954256	838387	784504	920767	977320	903463	902890	871039	894035	831335	736944	701909
Pb	2A1	6970827	5022975	3075123	2072634	1070145	728720	473715	513468	587305	560659	487618	330600	252096	241819	188473	189090	221525	220340	210510	140043	125219	149991	134950	178418	280724	223728	241819
Pb	2C1	1319004	1183626	1048248	1072536	1096824	1092408	954408	961584	966426	1002979	1048616	1123949	1217314	1350828	1259598	1268227	1438808	1428091	1272914	1101336	1366210	1196524	1247561	1273887	1324535	1189767	1350828
Pb	2C7a	109527	6368956	12628385	10168979	7709573	7176757	11129807	11132936	8351913	323791	634	2951472	2320402	17226955	5402489	7456136	9802183	10852820	11699505	9136499	14985026	15865406	12953984	6823738	9748079	14344141	17226955
Pb	5C1biii	1909559	1966960	1958087	2000128	1877472	1869013	1889111	1875627	1863670	1839406	1789160	1741395	1731060	1665200	1263796	4089669	1279959	1602923	2677377	848947	2206723	743746	802584	495275	717600	568286	932108
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	76359706	79239526	82648478	76315772	69904960	65480775	71846854	70193826	63674734	54024470	49353672	53495864	51836962	59436629	54144615	58698971	54525130	37499081	38142345	27111203	39360098	37365372	34866917	28593543	34166734	38559896	44640771
Cd	1A4ai	45008	44780	44552	44324	44096	43868	43640	43412	43184	42956	6446	5113	4352	3510	3094	6065	6992	10966	14558	23346	48636	62714	78863	96200	100857	109766	112260
Cd	2A3	7337622	8181447	9025271	7061133	5096995	8562837	7835096	8960208	6399822	5601938	6128951	6132112	3959255	4668281	5571477	4829155	4525978	52023	54750	41368	50294	40529	49605	54400	52403	55537	57267
Cd	2C3	6740	6455	6170	4725	3280	3260	11140	11019	10800	10920	10981	11006	10981	89393	15689	15920	15829	16046	16300	14960	16300	16284	16066	16330	16767	17585	89393
Cd	2C7a		59152	118305	95152	72000	68295	83160	83160	72690			37500	27550	264169	97845	153825	188430	273795	237269	145155	192525	207968	143380	104565	158025	186165	264169
Cd	5C1biii	246395	253801	252656	258081	242254	241163	243756	242016	240474	237343	230859	224696	223363	214864	163070	527699	165156	206829	345468	109542	284738	95967	103559	63906	92594	73327	120272
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	8584431	9464432	10289694	8313633	6294143	9735133	9029380	10112792	7504630	6622934	6942366	7000038	4816388	5879170	6494323	6264506	5629552	1281248	1415260	993025	1264882	1110787	1124474	1075925	1168534	1202868	1411055
Hg	1A1c	63966	63360	62753	62147	61540	60933	60327	59720	59114	58507	58719	52098	57127	61342	56322	57145	55120	54752	50631	49587	51308	48896	49095	48452	49063	51021	51136
Hg	1A2a	3812134	3468315	3124496	2748906	2373316	2411450	2411336	2424320	2673972	2713865	3323599	2557391	2001999	1471646	1862892	1611883	2157029	1768365	1964077	354302	435327	430878	456646	461006	517940	504783	524767
Hg	1A2c	136737	165821	183115	190346	189009	180340	165996	147386	125919	103266	3115	3247	2926	2783	2111	1897	1540	1330	1599	1916	2067	2106	2156	2179	2264	2464	2383
Hg	2A1	1431333	1031377	631421	425578	219735	149629	97269	105431	120592	115121	100124	67883	51763	49653	38699	38826	45486	45243	43224	28755	25711	30798	27710	36635	57642	45939	49653
Hg	2B10a	67400	67200	67000	48500	30000	400000	42795	300000	310000	310000	300000	369000	361000	91860	448200	477000	383800	173733	170302	178044	173477	173212	163100	164993	159403	117739	91860
Hg	2C7a	12180086	8176531	4172975	3279598	2386220	112853	3890105	4238080	3625660	262293	70475	52602	11304	1057	11905	615	754	1095	949	581	770	832	574	418	632	745	1057
Hg	5C1biii	1324372	1364182	1358028	1387186	1302117	1296251	1310190	1300838	1292545	1275717	1240869	1207742	1200574	1154896	876503	2836383	887714	1111705	1856890	588786	1530469	515824	556631	343497	497691	394134	646462

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	11B	609	497	622	1057	387	454	583	507	498	2288	1274	711	1036	1828	820	1389	949	1373	1013	1324	1153	1293	1993	806	1309	1398	1216
DIOX	1A2a	40627	38617	36613	34608	32604	30576	31589	32601	31283	32805	36107	33837	29427	27659	28210	26733	26940	25412	23064	13895	17815	20884	22446	21883	27037	26669	26499
DIOX	1A4bi	15862	14917	13694	11113	585	556	6344	4913	5414	4829	5104	4721	3096	3058	3126	3716	3648	3264	3101	3172	3162	3303	3343	3324	3101	3256	2995
DIOX	1B1b	7020	6728	6437	6145	11234	5190	5376	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5246	5220	4800	3000	6000	4560	4410	4320	4410	4590	4620
DIOX	2C1	4112	3970	3829	3688	3547	3405	3574	3742	3870	2823	3497	3955	3894	3858	4319	4417	4733	4851	4672	4209	6382	4534	4554	4155	4443	4013	3858
DIOX	5C1biii	25101	25856	25739	26292	24680	24568	24833	24655	24498	24179	23519	14044	13960	13429	10192	32981	10322	12927	21592	1141	17796	5998	6472	3994	5787	4583	7517
HCB	1A2a	182720	173677	164634	155590	146547	137504	142224	146944	141329	148189	163257	152854	132628	124297	126836	120098	120739	113811	103260	61819	79364	93444	100537	97931	121309	119689	118800
HCB	1A2b	177528	224094	270660	243438	212940	177567	196892	216216	188994	158496	127998	97500	71631	140455	254397	399945	489918	711867	616899	377403	343200	540716	372789	271869	410865	484029	686840
HCB	1A2gviii	371311	349183	327053	304925	282796	260667	251473	242277	216277	199677	168712	131591	132695	136925	129857	133008	131645	122839	117768	117074	97110	94327	87206	81295	69130	74459	74459
HCB	5C1bi	254890	203455	191810	140220	159175	135789	144225	139611	120990	117370	132252	132391	142343	153404	158953	110923	234555	176195	68083	45654	182570	77168	163574	153180	133124	114464	63923
PCB	1A2a	6361354	6045257	5729531	5413805	5098080	4780868	4940202	5099535	4893321	5130274	5646960	5289400	4593344	4312763	4400903	4169762	4198517	3959702	3595478	2157725	2768419	3254178	3497774	3408421	4216573	4159826	4130743
PCB	1A3bi	589886	632242	711269	731547	760266	826806	882672	966109	1193612	1208853	64	74	72	74	72	86	72	82	80	75	129	130	143	140	144	134	109
PCB	1A3bii	781395	722606	655428	640297	652297	681886	667619	735482	1046958	1039360	16	20	25	27	32	41	33	45	39	40	52	35	34	33	35	24	21
PCB	1A3biii	8632691	6561878	5503445	4968261	5370455	5792932	5886307	5826803	5608854	5193853	34	37	41	42	48	59	62	69	77	69	61	42	43	40	40	24	13
PCB	5C1bi	849635	678183	639367	467399	530584	452629	480751	465370	403299	391233	440839	441302	474477	511346	529842	369742	781850	587318	226944	152181	608567	257226	545245	510600	443747	381547	213078
PCB	5C1biii	307993	317252	315821	322601	302818	301454	304695	302521	300592	296678	288574	280870	279203	268581	203838	659624	206445	258536	431835	136927	355923	119959	129449	79883	115742	91659	150340