Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2a	16986	14483	13080	12711	12371	12049	11737	11477	11110	10780	10376	10194	9783	9775	8720	8415	9822	7322	6040	5181	6189	5168	5984	6111	6357	6202
NOx	1A2f	17094	14555	12502	10873	9611	9026	8510	8199	7695	7013	7269	7257	6922	6696	6700	6552	6644	6409	7004	5980	6034	6400	5291	5502	5544	5624
NOx	1A3ei	8765	7468	6205	4989	2922	4904	5476	4972	4882	4595	5101	3000	3459	3327	4696	3974	2746	2918	3513	2585	2350	2494	689	658	186	227
NOx	3Da1	8890	5854	3607	2594	2747	2783	2979	3521	3274	2616	2906	3041	3530	3252	3196	3253	3147	3557	3509	3082	3475	3719	4040	4543	4761	4591
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	228026	190742	166594	151098	141857	141800	138214	133816	128343	119989	114826	115363	108444	105582	105848	108217	103430	103122	101002	91181	94691	90612	86729	87399	89036	86213
NMVOC	2D3d	21557	21606	21655	21704	21754	21803	21852	21901	21950	21999	21773	21664	23449	21715	25037	20431	23576	19345	21382	20993	27709	23348	20342	20367	21909	25612
NMVOC	2D3e	11012	10732	10451	10170	9889	9609	9328	9047	8766	8485	8290	6897	8124	8236	6600	6961	7143	6100	5710	5073	3844	8914	3095	4156	3808	4632
NMVOC	5A	10693	8945	8795	7486	7866	7316	7755	7558	6940	6855	7040	6975	7433	7725	8513	6419	10969	8680	7146	6367	5942	6419	6263	7704	5874	6136
SOx	1A1a	189271	163140	147005	135318	110696	97554	85058	72107	62061	61100	62851	68774	56051	58626	54724	50537	47238	38430	40559	38129	43154	45193	39349	36172	29253	50899
SOx	1B2aiv	3857	3140	2714	2654	2982	3204	3257	3302	3379	3366	3374	3409	3483	3507	3542	3471	3497	3692	3625	3534	3381	3714	3347	3640	3236	3692
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	524330	456514	353795	326129	268496	242047	204963	172106	148391	138423	131429	134707	107177	109310	99898	92478	91445	74466	73261	67818	72801	72244	61787	56971	48625	71423
NH3	3B4d	420	678	1015	1015	1017	1018	1062	1088	2069	2076	2089	1641	1634	1594	1586	1608	1559	1539	1507	1457	1435	1384	1433	1484	1584	1447
NH3	3Da1	11113	7317	3243	3243	3433	3479	3723	4401	4092	3270	3633	3802	4413	4065	3996	4066	3934	4447	4387	3853	4344	4648	5050	5679	5952	5739
NH3	3Da2a	26102	23378	18924	18924	18089	18115	17596	17065	15279	14594	14569	14951	14308	13787	12779	12459	11933	11553	10161	10904	10579	9432	10187	9794	10202	10232
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	69792	60633	46438	46402	46307	46051	45084	44857	41118	38950	39199	40232	39359	37723	34921	34311	33031	32614	29699	30237	29878	28000	29192	29400	30439	30358
CO	11B												8203	9039	11707	9750	14048	11092	12443	12415	13087	13589	13548	311	8209	8209	8209
CO	1A1c	13936	13900	13865	13829	13794	13759	13723	13688	13653	13618	13960	10672	11842	15308	14491	15287	15259	15056	13210	13360	15433	15024	14986	14076	14547	14458
CO	1A2a	96276	83743	77250	76777	76530	76468	76550	77075	76994	77286	77168	68627	72239	89554	92796	79116	94926	88116	78822	53828	72454	85291	84460	86383	99706	98484
CO	1A2b	82945	67791	55169	44825	36525	30037	25128	21566	19118	17551	18167	8003	10303	11701	14152	14825	15039	15760	16358	16628	16680	16309	15188	13657	14462	15837
CO	1A3biii	10911	8283	6697	5825	6100	6334	6044	5602	5061	4475	4147	4707	5131	5301	6159	7175	7490	8662	8060	6876	7461	6997	6593	6724	7653	6068
CO	1A4bi	42224	39868	39933	34980	32778	36167	41919	41360	40411	42145	42241	50178	33815	33811	34753	41766	40882	37018	37367	36181	35953	37710	38172	38505	35701	37487

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	29696	28730	25984	26052	28758	37417	32789	28906	28309	28123	27318	29280	29434	29903	28752	30077
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	42657	40674	36046	35977	37751	46132	41086	36459	35918	35328	34341	36241	36511	36812	35950	37280
BC	1B1b	48	48	51	53	53	52	52	52	48	30	60	45	44	43	44	43

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2a	27138944	25055774	22972603	22802619	22632635	22167073	22992142	24096208	21934619	23340183	24520087	24962754	23769923	25376612	24951288	23835351	24223620	22750137	20961446	13210217	16951811	19926860	21436601	20887468	25852586	25504834
Pb	1A2c	2159621	2657713	2957004	3084897	3066514	2925245	2687299	2377204	2019526	1640552	1154464	892117	336686	432452	381254	448125	395656	371739	276264	211202	135451	119591	102334	89839	85695	98620
Pb	1A2d	1554275	1433170	1325707	1230396	1145967	1071146	1004661	945798	891606	842492	1021619	919320	945566	955826	1104767	1007054	1068372	1117151	1084514	1274473	961610	946396	839212	913842	1005252	939230
Pb	1A2gviii	2993524	2568865	2216802	1931675	1705736	1672918	1614154	1522091	1389637	1209587	1614250	1608951	1475015	1941497	1528538	1452533	1536556	1308609	1548608	1031922	928123	963831	832967	899981	863746	781240
Pb	1A3bi	6038445	5947923	6285303	7043029	7348767	7307863	6885900	6932353	7082370	6686545	1925750	1979119	1790469	1869324	1731825	1910183	1709729	1819808	1775142	1684108	2160485	1974655	1985720	1867754	1782866	45439
Pb	1A4ai	2258008	1947264	1667292	1416474	1193841	996926	823772	1625319	948659	674455	378778	316441	540478	27975	271864	136860	193602	438559	662107	1153429	836214	666436	289071	779040	492684	426532
Pb	2A1	6970827	5022975	3075123	2072634	1070145	728720	473715	513468	587305	560659	485761	307830	246296	263650	183227	186777	227603	225650	216756	145157	130289	158828	144473	178418	280724	223728
Pb	2C1	1319004	1183626	1048248	1072536	1096824	1092408	954408	961584	966426	1002979	1048616	1123949	1217314	1297090	1259598	1268227	1438808	1428091	1272914	1101336	1366210	1196524	1247561	1273887	1324535	1189767
Pb	2C7a	109527	6368956	12628385	10168979	7709573	7176757	11129807	11132936	8351913	323791	634	2951472	2320402	2544664	5402489	7456136	9802183	10852820	11699505	9136499	14985026	15865406	12953984	6823738	9748079	14344141
Pb	5C1bi	2973722	2373640	2237785	1635898	1857043	1584202	1682630	1628793	1411547	1369316	57309	57369	61682	66475	68879	48066	101640	76351	29503	19784	79114	33439	70882	66378	57687	49601
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	73863746	75856310	78732853	72392205	66579397	62094194	68981720	68526469	60915180	51188542	50666835	54484450	52802388	53704334	56706102	58577064	57413844	51434192	50090616	36926994	50023742	50764802	48255652	42405541	50122015	52547945
Cd	1A1a	150624	127018	108320	94111	83127	75626	72813	69803	68590	69107	70943	77006	72916	75438	74261	70898	65311	58397	55818	52825	51706	55020	59852	61325	68904	68904
Cd	1A2d	26438	23948	21905	20256	18948	17929	17145	16549	16075	15683	158466	165631	169866	172996	290288	245562	277632	295151	292648	312349	312305	316259	308010	289575	281114	280849
Cd	1A2gviii	98702	90432	83155	76850	71381	68544	65398	61836	57774	53118	56370	54236	52375	72320	40738	45492	43989	34004	59220	30236	22831	27679	26987	27944	29281	27168
Cd	1A4ai	39170	33222	27947	23306	19451	16072	13020	23261	13856	10025	5873	5591	8897	2428	5902	4322	5047	8007	14091	24016	27594	35608	29615	43180	44719	40400
Cd	2A3	7337622	8181447	9025271	7061133	5096995	8562837	7835096	8960208	6399822	5601938	6128951	6132112	3959255	4668281	5571477	4829155	4525978	52023	54750	41368	50294	40529	49605	54400	53124	55537
Cd	2C7a		59152	118305	95152	72000	68295	83160	83160	72690			37500	27550	54021	97845	153825	188430	273795	237269	145155	192525	207968	143380	104565	158025	186165
Cd	5C1bi	254890	203455	191810	140220	159175	135789	144225	139611	120990	117370	132252	132391	142343	153404	158953	110923	234555	176195	68083	45654	182570	77168	163574	153180	133124	114464
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	8394848	9162894	9975393	7895764	5893744	9303178	8566174	9685356	7056857	6175989	6869723	6917071	4750863	5542933	6582001	5808157	5716685	1272794	1126107	950455	1184028	1099180	1145714	1112699	1164301	1180164
Hg	1A1a	199449	167656	143240	125018	111215	102922	100930	97989	97392	99413	103182	114598	107761	113045	112379	103892	95712	86862	83668	76575	73340	76495	79558	78385	81666	81666
Hg	1A1c	53269	53144	53019	52895	52770	52645	52520	52396	52271	52146	53462	46417	51448	55039	50787	53724	53025	53238	49523	47204	51516	50424	50410	48279	49020	51124
Hg	1A2a	3812134	3468315	3124496	2748906	2373316	2411450	2411336	2424320	2673972	2713865	3323599	2557391	2001999	1471646	1862892	1611883	2157029	1658379	1862712	290552	353483	334514	352967	360015	392840	381354
Hg	1A4ai	153642	133844	116092	100781	86254	73785	62780	109483	69323	52777	34570	31839	44837	14126	28091	28464	33846	46368	58944	84324	67014	47944	31271	58321	37148	34067
Hg	2A1	1431333	1031377	631421	425578	219735	149629	97269	105431	120592	115121	99742	63207	50572	54136	37622	38351	46734	46333	44507	29805	26753	32612	29665	36635	57642	45939
Hg	2B10a	67400	67200	67000	48500	30000	400000	42795	300000	310000	310000	300000	369000	361000	381592	448200	477000	383800	173733	170302	178044	173477	173212	163100	164993	159403	117739
Hg	2C7a	12180086	8176531	4172975	3279598	2386220	112853	3890105	4238080	3625660	262293	70475	52602	11304	216	11905	615	754	1095	949	581	770	832	574	418	632	745
Hg	5C1bi	254890	203455	191810	140220	159175	135789	144225	139611	120990	117370	132252	132391	142343	153404	158953	110923	234555	176195	68083	45654	182570	77168	163574	153180	133124	114464
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	18981437	14089168	9242318	7612608	6061085	4055435	7379973	8001397	7565233	4165072	4576226	3802463	3149259	2660956	3104926	2813794	3406334	2625690	2717554	1094255	1252127	1116969	1176500	1216340	1232141	1141792

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2a	40627	38617	36613	34608	32604	30576	31589	32601	31283	32805	36107	33837	29427	27659	28210	26733	26940	25412	23064	13895	17815	20884	22446	21883	27037	26669
DIOX	1B1b	7020	7020	7020	5628	5628	5562	5124	5190	4264	4537	4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5246	5220	4800	3000	6000	4560	4410	4320	4410	4344
DIOX	2C1	4112	3970	3829	3688	3547	3405	3574	3742	3870	2823	3497	3955	3894	4043	4319	4417	4733	4851	4672	4209	6382	4534	4554	4155	4443	4013
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	110860	102692	98069	87566	83236	76658	76198	76456	74356	73328	71985	65486	61385	57002	58828	56507	53526	50408	45080	32021	44768	42676	45900	44451	49080	49065
HCB	1A2a	182720	173677	164634	155590	146547	137504	142224	146944	141329	148189	163257	152854	132628	124297	126836	120098	120739	113811	103260	61819	79364	93444	100537	97931	121309	119689
HCB	1A2b	177528	224094	270660	243438	212940	177567	196892	216216	188994	158496	127998	97500	71631	140455	254397	399945	489918	711867	616899	377403	343200	540716	372789	271869	410865	484029
HCB	1A2gviii	371311	349183	327053	304925	282796	260667	251473	242277	216277	199677	168712	131591	132695	136925	129857	133008	131645	122839	117768	117074	97110	94327	87206	81295	69130	74459
PCB	1A2a	6361354	6045257	5729531	5413805	5098080	4780868	4940202	5099535	4893321	5130274	5646960	5289400	4593344	4312763	4400903	4169762	4198517	3959702	3595478	2157725	2768419	3254178	3497774	3408421	4216573	4159826
PCB	1A3biii	8632691	6561878	5503445	4968261	5370455	5792932	5886307	5826803	5608854	5193853	4773586	5411136	5895139	6125252	7310323	8976352	9296797	10552405	11613029	10331006	10902676	10198446	9751458	9861948	11182833	8791240
PCB	2C5	18766097	18843457	18920817	18998177	19075536	19152896	19230256	19307615	19384975	19462335	19539695	19617054	19694414	19771774	19849133	23040000	23040000	23040000	21167552	7433728	19033504	18392832	20182592	20347744	23884128	23884128