Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A2gvii	1256	1041	861	767	894	1197	1240	1302	1410	1224	1471	1212	1075	996	1373	1374	2109	1659	1744	1407	993	825	814	754	735	778	784	847	832	919	946	982
NOx	1A3bii	277	286	285	341	402	480	515	603	612	657	681	728	879	864	1004	990	988	1252	1623	1357	1514	1720	1892	1905	2001	2091	2467	2562	2568	2362	1905	2200
NOx	3Da1	1087	950	1558	1335	1358	1289	1252	1360	1392	1375	1366	1391	1336	1380	1211	1167	1215	1185	1002	1128	1099	1085	1052	1091	1144	1133	1084	1083	1092	1122	1108	1166
SOx	1A2a	1862	962	153	50	21	12	8	163	165	165	138	183	191	193	138	148	221	174	188	94	153	177	146	162	174	148	148	167	172	159	128	119
NH3	3Da1	1473	1294	2132	1836	1868	1905	1682	1909	1938	1916	1927	1960	1978	1984	1723	1730	1767	1617	1315	1793	1613	1443	1579	1507	1437	1382	1385	1284	1456	1398	1509	1450
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	23820	22371	23312	21796	21790	21941	21194	21146	21386	21399	22221	22209	22753	21513	20104	20702	20589	21327	20083	20452	19837	19104	18949	18717	18638	19097	19333	18944	18847	18620	18481	18469
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	23820	22371	23312	21796	21790	21941	21194	21146	21386	21399	22221	22209	22753	21513	20104	20702	20589	21327	20083	20452	19837	19104	18949	18717	18638	19097	19333	18944	18847	18620	18481	18469
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	23820	22371	23312	21796	21790	21941	21194	21146	21386	21399	22221	22209	22753	21513	20104	20702	20589	21327	20083	20452	19837	19104	18949	18717	18638	19097	19333	18944	18847	18620	18481	18469
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6466	6780	6791	7815	7859	6114	4264	3350

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	2A5b	189	200	214	225	237	249	268	297	320	96	232	191	151	110	29	25	121	117	132	144	188	309
PM10	2A2	400	429	398	417	411	578	648	597	30	20	25	25	20	16	15	16	16	16	16	15	15	18
PM10	2A5b	1892	2001	2136	2248	2371	2486	2678	2968	3205	959	2324	1913	1511	1102	291	254	1214	1167	1324	1437	1882	3092
TSP	2A5a	649	645	642	638	635	628	621	614	608	601	588	527	468	512	564	564	543	589	659	668	613	613
TSP	2A5b	6331	6696	7147	7520	7933	8317	8960	9930	10721	3203	7774	6399	5055	3686	969	841	4039	3880	4397	4765	6256	7320

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	769464	697807	764957	810151	712061	743151	810071	849937	801172	818811	826588	850265	868869	875694	822541	839885	856684	816275	788943	602261	636993	686409	687010	670122	649940	635351	593356
Pb	1A2d	215804	243738	249669	175993	109955	157698	132723	135336	231008	239991	228670	286389	307131	279315	297489	308013	269794	205025	190831	172343	195171	199302	182315	189668	185747	173708	161700	163259	158485	160669	100079	46042
Pb	1A2f	235292	208378	184391	182493	225677	219725	297360	319228	207063	206324	217085	201991	196649	200023	219058	185122	188627	177575	194325	170328	135664	136697	140471	159578	166329	132376	121292	140002	145472	153344	149581	153481
Pb	1A3bi	28336475	24891558	24387558	26028111	25958570	16131506	6116809	5207157	3865718	3218725	2575790	1114633	330570	322868	287185	282457	275368	265599	277575	252745	246708	238828	215296	195769	182611	178156	176696	175817	5833	5597	4311	5007
Pb	1A3bvi	1015017	961610	1005205	1215758	1366450	1508024	1702794	1779075	1496440	1431696	1424002	1473323	1500443	1505236	1554230	1634292	1722897	1934996	2181110	1827656	1887885	2000674	2018405	1921679	1915987	1873252	1975677	2010022	2051458	1994139	1644805	1880279
Pb	1A4bi	852136	996224	880445	781398	682868	646134	627635	590793	577733	590057	584230	675898	534121	568542	536584	642139	567592	654711	635510	617639	623965	627578	609887	628611	517591	585821	589582	555871	493003	462142	440024	512706
Pb	1A4cii	8054230	7864454	6267670	4297057	4752489	2218008	645443	493368	492861	335170	155604	20705	145	154	144	144	147	142	146	128	134	129	136	136	155	152	147	151	155	154	144	144
Pb	2C1	1643333	952721	1014689	926315	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984	1672437	1759332	1733313	1662434	1582927	1776909
Pb	2C7a	344352	248952	267720	180384	140760	154656	152256	216111	272053	271497	316216	302952	315666	304523	284052	269142	282385	341462	323109	223629	228921	140241	5534	7594	12855	14652	14417	14869	15192	14594	13057	13562
Pb	2G	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	190512	159779	208387	248606	319637	387139	725984	493606	363933	374242	374242	492979	357582	316344	316344	316344	366755	346998	227987	392096	243557	11649	206699
Cd	1A2gviii	46987	39028	40485	39294	40293	37607	44627	38840	42720	10380	11857	9150	11326	27304	25024	28222	33310	37394	33459	28836	33228	24159	18259	21628	32246	28067	25985	25968	26796	25841	30298	30678
Cd	2C7a	33000	23858	25656	17287	13490	14821	14591	20711	26072	26018	30304	29033	30251	29183	27222	25793	27062	32723	30965	21431	21938	13440	530	728	1232	1404	1382	1425	1456	1399	1251	1300
Hg	1A4bi	26528	31992	27303	23817	19837	18549	18229	16817	16213	16754	15486	17738	14556	15183	14225	16022	14239	15566	15384	14925	15053	14807	14273	14448	11853	13347	13415	12683	11298	10639	10219	11669

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	5E	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2243	2351	2345	2243	2233	1898	2180	2143	2036	1938	2099	2200	2493	2230	2002	2029	2162
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221	17985	21812	16619	16430	15407	11106