Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	3Da1	1087	950	1558	1335	1358	1289	1252	1360	1392	1375	1366	1391	1336	1380	1211	1167	1215	1185	1002	1128	1099	1085	1052	1091	1144	1133	1084	1083	1092	1122
SOx	1A2a	1862	962	153	50	21	12	8	163	165	165	138	183	191	193	138	148	221	174	188	94	153	177	146	162	174	148	148	167	172	159
NH3	3Da1	1473	1294	2132	1836	1868	1905	1682	1909	1938	1916	1927	1960	1978	1984	1723	1730	1767	1617	1315	1793	1613	1443	1579	1507	1437	1382	1385	1284	1456	1398
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	23214	21826	22764	21292	21293	21434	20691	20702	20941	20945	21768	21789	22354	21155	19749	20344	20246	20981	19764	20143	19545	18819	18667	18414	18316	18751	18967	18566	18450	18063
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	23214	21826	22764	21292	21293	21434	20691	20702	20941	20945	21768	21789	22354	21155	19749	20344	20246	20981	19764	20143	19545	18819	18667	18414	18316	18751	18967	18566	18450	18063
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	23214	21826	22764	21292	21293	21434	20691	20702	20941	20945	21768	21789	22354	21155	19749	20344	20246	20981	19764	20143	19545	18819	18667	18414	18316	18751	18967	18566	18450	18063
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6466	6780	6791	7815	7859	6114
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	290905	276887	273030	289939	282920	283635	293396	268782	235572	217669	205443	216533	183985	185725	173287	183025	161473	167421	159377	142656	143233	140061	133765	132763	113451	121116	120371	115312	104734	96623
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	290905	276887	273030	289939	282920	283635	293396	268782	235572	217669	205443	216533	183985	185725	173287	183025	161473	167421	159377	142656	143233	140061	133765	132763	113451	121116	120371	115312	104734	96623
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	290905	276887	273030	289939	282920	283635	293396	268782	235572	217669	205443	216533	183985	185725	173287	183025	161473	167421	159377	142656	143233	140061	133765	132763	113451	121116	120371	115312	104734	96623

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM10	1A3bvi	289	303	311	313	328	350	370	420	481	400	411	437	443	422	421	414	440	451	461	454
TSP	1A3bvi	384	403	414	418	438	467	495	563	647	539	554	589	598	570	569	561	596	611	626	616

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	769464	697807	764957	810151	712061	743151	810071	849937	801172	818811	826588	850265	868869	875694	822541	839885	856684	816275	788943	602261	636993	686409	687010	670122	649940
Pb	1A3bi	28178662	24803809	24248504	25806713	25715034	15982177	6059675	5166893	3843466	3203235	2564331	1110240	329442	321892	286694	281856	274774	264723	275583	251118	244386	236086	212349	192490	179389	175343	174835	174233	5444	5226
Pb	1A4bi	852136	996224	880445	781398	682868	646134	627635	590793	577733	590057	584230	675898	534121	568542	536584	642139	567592	654711	635510	617639	623965	627578	609887	628611	517591	585821	589582	555871	493003	462142
Pb	1A4cii	8054230	7864454	6267670	4297057	4752489	2218008	645443	493368	492861	335170	155604	20705	145	154	144	144	147	142	146	128	134	129	136	136	155	152	147	151	155	154
Pb	2C1	1643333	952721	1014689	926315	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984	1672437	1759332	1733313	1662434
Pb	2C7a	344352	248952	267720	180384	140760	154656	152256	216111	272053	271497	316216	302952	315666	304523	284052	269142	282385	341462	323109	223629	228921	140241	5534	7594	12855	14652	14417	14869	15192	14594
Pb	2G	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	190512	159779	208387	248606	319637	387139	725984	493606	363933	606346	142139	492979	357582	565029	241315	142688	366755	346998	227987	627296	243557
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	42426978	37987618	35607387	34856750	35153307	22649879	10709027	9841267	8511190	7625757	6944523	5634120	4977604	5119690	5237133	5761125	5628299	5719998	6095974	4513294	5412172	5342166	5240505	4836327	4393258	4660106	4732500	4673802	4814378	4308229
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	42426978	37987618	35607387	34856750	35153307	22649879	10709027	9841267	8511190	7625757	6944523	5634120	4977604	5119690	5237133	5761125	5628299	5719998	6095974	4513294	5412172	5342166	5240505	4836327	4393258	4660106	4732500	4673802	4814378	4308229
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	42426978	37987618	35607387	34856750	35153307	22649879	10709027	9841267	8511190	7625757	6944523	5634120	4977604	5119690	5237133	5761125	5628299	5719998	6095974	4513294	5412172	5342166	5240505	4836327	4393258	4660106	4732500	4673802	4814378	4308229
Cd	1A2gviii	46987	39028	40485	39294	40293	37607	44627	38840	42720	10380	11857	9150	11326	27304	25024	28222	33310	37394	33459	28836	33228	24159	18259	21628	32246	28067	25985	25968	26796	25841
Cd	2C7a	33000	23858	25656	17287	13490	14821	14591	20711	26072	26018	30304	29033	30251	29183	27222	25793	27062	32723	30965	21431	21938	13440	530	728	1232	1404	1382	1425	1456	1399
Hg	1A4bi	26528	31992	27303	23817	19837	18549	18229	16817	16213	16754	15486	17738	14556	15183	14225	16022	14239	15566	15384	14925	15053	14807	14273	14448	11853	13347	13415	12683	11298	10639

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	5E	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1356	1353	1295	1288	1108	1279	1253	1191	1134	1225	1284	1456	1303	1170
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221	17985	21812	16619	16430