Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	3Da1	1087	950	1558	1335	1358	1289	1252	1360	1392	1375	1366	1391	1336	1380	1211	1167	1215	1185	1002	1128	1099	1085	1052	1091	1144	1133	1084	1083	1092
SOx	1A2a	1862	962	153	50	21	12	8	163	165	165	138	183	191	193	138	148	221	174	188	94	153	177	146	162	174	148	148	167	172
SOx	1A4ai	5743	7882	5549	8052	6073	3130	2908	2171	1856	2002	1472	1428	1256	1113	932	834	709	470	391	368	335	282	207	211	138	145	173	131	129
NH3	3Da1	1473	1294	2132	1836	1868	1905	1682	1909	1938	1916	1927	1960	1994	2020	1728	1767	1757	1690	1311	1883	1675	1547	1651	1609	1575	1512	1502	1405	1401
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	22832	21598	22389	20815	20749	20922	20406	20640	20794	20719	21618	21425	22484	21304	19773	20264	20337	20951	19735	20326	19681	18942	18723	18480	18466	18768	19120	18699	18546
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	22832	21598	22389	20815	20749	20922	20406	20640	20794	20719	21618	21425	22484	21304	19773	20264	20337	20951	19735	20326	19681	18942	18723	18480	18466	18768	19120	18699	18546
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	22832	21598	22389	20815	20749	20922	20406	20640	20794	20719	21618	21425	22484	21304	19773	20264	20337	20951	19735	20326	19681	18942	18723	18480	18466	18768	19120	18699	18546
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6466	6780	6791	7815	7859
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	304962	286189	275941	290214	283315	282379	291693	264094	227738	205809	190225	184451	180758	179331	168406	164888	155942	148759	144716	133390	131964	129337	124017	122629	102478	108234	110778	105697	98877
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	304962	286189	275941	290214	283315	282379	291693	264094	227738	205809	190225	184451	180758	179331	168406	164888	155942	148759	144716	133390	131964	129337	124017	122629	102478	108234	110778	105697	98877
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	304962	286189	275941	290214	283315	282379	291693	264094	227738	205809	190225	184451	180758	179331	168406	164888	155942	148759	144716	133390	131964	129337	124017	122629	102478	108234	110778	105697	98877

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM10	1A1a	661	645	758	649	633	626	328	372	624	448	388	492	505	427	349	362	351	406	397
PM10	1A3bvi	276	287	288	300	313	334	351	399	472	411	410	442	454	433	424	417	442	441	463
TSP	1A1a	953	930	1099	943	919	880	435	505	768	574	495	634	654	538	430	429	410	473	457
TSP	1A3bvi	364	378	380	396	412	441	463	526	623	542	540	584	599	570	560	550	583	582	611
TSP	1A3bvii	307	319	320	333	348	373	392	446	527	455	453	488	501	477	466	459	488	488	513

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	769464	697807	764957	810151	712061	743151	810071	849937	801172	818811	826588	850265	868869	875694	822541	839885	856684	816275	788943	602261	636993	686409	687010	670122
Pb	1A2gvii	15947753	6601669	4199465	2803269	2294022	1000193	332526	290501	310388	216973	153111	19905	176	150	14	5	53	10	9	9	11	9	7	6	6	6	6	6	13
Pb	1A3bi	303939420	273422305	270178931	288891827	288351872	179898114	69727761	59912071	44826902	37872491	31234054	15688041	4908650	4795886	4298086	4237978	4116322	3988054	4149484	3815258	3630867	3653401	3376824	2994204	2769880	2695256	2674218	2566745	2622584
Pb	1A4bi	797016	934655	812412	706902	601909	558711	533749	490443	470920	476781	462131	448774	466452	490834	502356	510108	526270	542005	558191	578867	581549	584903	568321	586329	467992	524802	547354	517401	474648
Pb	2C1	1643333	952721	1014689	926315	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984	1672437	1759332	1733313
Pb	2C7a	344352	248952	267720	180384	140760	154656	152256	216111	272053	271497	316216	302952	315666	304523	284052	269142	282385	341462	323109	223629	228921	140241	5534	7594	12855	14652	14417	14869	15192
Pb	2G	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	190512	159779	208387	248606	319637	387139	725984	493606	363933	606346	142139	492979	357582	565029	241315	142688	366755	346998	227987	627296
Cd	1A2gviii	46989	39031	40494	39296	40296	37607	44628	38840	42720	10380	11857	9150	11326	27304	25024	28222	33310	37394	33459	28836	33228	24159	18259	21628	32246	28067	25985	25968	26796
Cd	2C7a	33000	23858	25656	17287	13490	14821	14591	20711	26072	26018	30304	29033	30251	29183	27222	25793	27062	32723	30965	21431	21938	13440	530	728	1232	1404	1382	1425	1456
Hg	1A4bi	25243	30715	25892	22272	18158	16736	16282	14736	13998	14405	13444	13027	13152	13572	13515	13283	13382	13229	13780	14121	14174	13922	13411	13571	10824	12082	12539	11885	10917

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	5E	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1356	1353	1295	1288	1108	1279	1253	1191	1134	1225	1284	1456	1303
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221	17985	21812	16619