Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	3Da1	1087	950	1558	1335	1358	1289	1252	1360	1392	1375	1366	1391	1336	1380	1211	1167	1215	1185	1002	1128	1099	1085	1052	1091	1144	1133	1084	1083
NMVOC	5A	1048	1063	1073	1083	1095	1103	1131	1159	1187	1217	1248	1279	1281	1279	1135	1174	1311	1266	1283	1171	972	788	604	429	402	407	177	222
SOx	1A2a	1862	962	153	50	21	12	8	163	165	165	138	183	191	193	138	148	221	174	188	94	153	177	146	162	174	148	148	167
SOx	1A4ai	5743	7882	5549	8052	6073	3130	2908	2171	1856	2002	1472	1428	1256	1113	932	834	709	470	391	368	335	282	207	211	138	145	173	131
NH3	3Da1	1473	1294	2132	1836	1868	1905	1682	1909	1938	1916	1927	1960	1994	2020	1728	1767	1757	1690	1311	1883	1675	1547	1651	1609	1575	1512	1502	1405
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	22864	21615	22414	20836	20769	20897	20406	20673	20829	20653	21576	21445	22521	21379	19847	20357	20397	20964	19750	20334	19698	18932	18692	18466	18471	18678	19002	18634
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	22864	21615	22414	20836	20769	20897	20406	20673	20829	20653	21576	21445	22521	21379	19847	20357	20397	20964	19750	20334	19698	18932	18692	18466	18471	18678	19002	18634
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6466	6780	6791	7815
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	304595	285649	275345	289175	282145	280892	289635	261749	225212	203013	187661	181774	178131	176779	165864	162595	153908	147273	143058	131766	130252	127951	122820	121679	101742	107466	110030	104973
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	304595	285649	275345	289175	282145	280892	289635	261749	225212	203013	187661	181774	178131	176779	165864	162595	153908	147273	143058	131766	130252	127951	122820	121679	101742	107466	110030	104973

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM10	1A1a	661	645	758	649	633	626	328	372	669	456	389	500	510	447	359	363	351	407
PM10	1A3bvi	276	287	288	300	313	334	351	399	472	411	410	442	454	433	424	417	442	487
TSP	1A1a	953	930	1099	943	919	880	435	505	836	585	496	646	661	567	446	430	411	474
TSP	1A3bvi	364	378	380	396	412	441	463	526	623	542	540	584	599	570	560	550	583	642
TSP	1A3bvii	307	319	320	333	348	373	392	446	527	455	453	488	501	477	466	459	488	539

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	769464	697807	764957	810151	712061	743151	810071	849937	801172	818811	826588	850265	868869	875694	822541	839885	856684	816275	788943	602261	636993	686409	687010
Pb	1A2gvii	15947753	6601669	4199465	2803269	2294022	1000193	332526	290501	310388	216973	153111	19905	176	150	14	5	53	10	9	9	11	9	7	6	6	6	6	6
Pb	1A3bi	304738389	274313506	271014279	290123785	289504948	180699586	70086046	60246812	45123448	38147375	31429691	15789083	4940622	4826593	4327756	4264675	4139948	4006148	4169071	3833558	3649845	3668909	3390266	3005307	2778890	2704578	2682966	2575083
Pb	1A4bi	797016	934655	812412	706902	601909	558711	533749	490443	470920	476781	462131	448774	466452	490834	502356	510108	526270	542005	558191	578867	581549	584903	568321	586329	467992	524802	547354	517401
Pb	2C1	1643333	952721	1014689	926315	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984	1672437	1759332
Pb	2G	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	196000	190512	159779	208387	248606	319637	387139	725984	493606	363933	606346	142139	492979	357582	565029	241315	142688	366755	346998	227987
Cd	1A2gviii	46989	39031	40494	39296	40296	37607	44628	38840	42720	10380	11857	9150	11326	27304	25024	28222	33310	37394	33459	28836	33228	24159	18259	21628	32246	28067	25985	25968
Cd	2C7a	157828	114103	122705	82676	64515	70884	69784	99051	124691	124436	144932	138853	144680	139573	130191	123357	129427	156503	148092	102496	104922	64277	2536	3481	5892	6716	6608	6815
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	702037	586049	605089	549795	542021	541369	523681	571920	603835	562417	599840	627782	658855	684462	697576	717148	732185	760326	768462	673517	727778	694250	610355	619787	552972	580243	597351	596729
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	702037	586049	605089	549795	542021	541369	523681	571920	603835	562417	599840	627782	658855	684462	697576	717148	732185	760326	768462	673517	727778	694250	610355	619787	552972	580243	597351	596729
Hg	1A4bi	25243	30715	25892	22272	18158	16736	16282	14736	13998	14405	13444	13027	13152	13572	13515	13283	13382	13229	13780	14121	14174	13922	13411	13571	10824	12082	12539	11885

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	5E	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1356	1353	1295	1288	1108	1279	1253	1191	1134	1225	1284	1456
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221	17985	21812