Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	3Da1	1666	1457	2388	2047	2082	1977	1919	2085	2134	2109	2095	2132	2049	2116	1856	1789	1863	1816	1536	1730	1686	1664	1613	1672	1755	1737	1662
SOx	1A4ai	5743	7882	5549	8052	6073	3130	2908	2171	1856	2002	1472	1428	1256	1113	932	834	709	470	391	368	335	282	207	211	138	145	173
SOx	2B10a	465	465	465	465	465	465	465	465	465	465	465	451	428	440	454	550	575	552	581	553	611	616	503	528	422	338	628
SOx	2B6	87	56	88	80	106	119	103	116	139	145	159	155	148	159	159	187	213	229	228	217	245	237	191	231	243	249	258
NH3	3Da1	712	622	1018	871	886	827	822	883	906	895	887	902	855	887	783	744	784	766	661	699	700	702	664	700	747	744	700
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	22148	20977	21324	19885	19791	19813	19524	19611	19745	19557	20445	20319	21285	20090	18695	19104	19172	19769	18811	19126	18752	18084	17734	17589	17717	18097	18433
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6466	6780	6791

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM10	1A3bvi	276	287	288	300	313	334	351	399	472	411	410	442	454	433	424	417	442
TSP	1A1a	953	930	1099	943	919	880	435	505	836	585	496	646	661	567	446	430	411
TSP	1A3bvi	364	378	380	396	412	441	463	526	623	542	540	584	599	570	560	550	583
TSP	1A3bvii	307	319	320	333	348	373	392	446	527	455	453	488	501	477	466	459	488

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	808539	739755	810354	860495	760916	791109	863443	912973	863340	885380	892842	913339	931447	938503	876457	898053	913360	869661	840345	648569	681769	732263
Pb	1A2gvii	15947753	6601669	4199465	2803269	2294022	1000193	332526	290501	310388	216973	153111	19905	176	150	14	5	53	10	9	9	11	9	7	6	6	6	6
Pb	1A3bi	304913016	274480511	271200764	290346746	289755637	180971702	70395420	60559715	45398308	38415436	31710764	16073134	5227478	5118102	4619645	4568224	4456734	4359252	4584223	4210034	4023345	4081765	3818813	3411838	3182700	3092052	3084963
Pb	1A4bi	797016	934655	812412	706902	601909	558711	533749	490443	470920	476781	462131	448774	466452	490834	502356	510108	526270	542005	558191	578867	581549	584903	568321	586329	467992	524802	547354
Pb	2C1	2781024	1612296	1717166	1567610	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984	1672437
Cd	1A4bi	181422	184878	185336	185990	186647	188019	189603	190971	192614	194551	196247	196500	207865	219784	231555	239401	247346	255098	263045	273161	276893	279497	272130	281235	224752	252167	263149
Cd	2C7a	157828	114103	122705	82676	64515	70884	69784	99051	124691	124436	144932	138853	144680	139573	130191	123357	129427	156503	148092	102496	104922	64277	2536	3481	5892	6716	6608
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	758551	618658	639844	581493	541654	545741	528299	576911	609400	568165	605451	634027	666223	691729	705357	724888	739550	767642	775805	679821	734570	700860	615368	622949	552557	581510	600203
Hg	1A4bi	25243	30715	25892	22272	18158	16736	16282	14736	13998	14405	13444	13027	13152	13572	13515	13283	13382	13229	13780	14121	14174	13922	13411	13571	10824	12082	12539

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	559	507	566	542	533	549	497	544	578	513	533	579	613	583	598	620	637	648	722	642	652	671	641	622	488	524	559
DIOX	5E	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1296	1356	1353	1295	1288	1108	1279	1253	1191	1134	1225	1284
HCB	1A1a	363671	328184	373042	357211	346653	358235	327736	360536	383142	338686	352076	383169	406217	384024	394141	395346	403790	412297	407762	393096	406996	412959	391475	376917	291316	305319	328768
HCB	1A4bi	69918	71291	71426	71639	71855	72366	72964	73474	74098	74843	75491	75583	79952	84537	89060	92075	95131	98114	101170	105061	106494	107496	104663	108165	86441	96985	101209
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221	17985