Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	17576	14398	14523	15184	15092	13567	13630	15496	15914	12896	14068	14767	16445	14732	12749	12613	12815	11671	11629	10469	10853	10590	9977	9048	6710	4496
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	67463	61560	60787	62633	65845	64861	66816	66211	60562	54122	54367	54869	55213	53202	52373	51671	52503	52138	56211	48867	47827	47609	46532	43940	39413	35157
NMVOC	1B1a	1730	1614	1749	1605	1532	1555	1485	1591	1573	1467	1441	1329	1507	1553	1547	1460	1454	1454	1454	1424	1425	1448	1376	1269	1000	1000
SOx	1A4ai	5743	7883	5553	8058	6082	3141	2922	2187	1874	2022	1495	1427	1254	1112	930	833	708	468	390	367	333	280	206	209	136	143
SOx	2A6											362	362	362	400	234	227	60	142	193	292	277	290	224	230	233	183
SOx	2H1	300	171	144	83	121	162	148	210	224	242	242	232	232	222	221	222	123	123	35	78	83	86	118	140	162	171
NH3	3Da1	1962	1727	2847	2456	2498	2594	2235	2566	2600	2571	2594	2638	2722	2746	2334	2421	2381	2283	1730	2637	2298	2088	2281	2190	2106	2006
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	23565	22215	23291	21632	21560	21729	21082	21420	21528	21315	22330	22133	23201	21937	20177	20747	20757	21286	19842	21071	20342	19459	19367	19089	19012	19243
CO	2C3	11105	9673	8916	8962	8914	8894	8601	8924	8856	8986	9375	9375	13328	15326	15556	15620	13364	12434	6920	2431	2862	4504	6695	6941	6486	6781

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	2C3	1333	1294	814	890	785	713	1134	988	11	9	9	15	43	36	38	39
PM10	1A3bvi	284	307	310	323	340	344	366	420	501	435	431	466	479	454	451	444
PM10	2C3	2666	2587	1628	1780	1571	1427	2269	1976	22	18	17	29	85	72	77	77
TSP	1A3bvi	374	405	408	426	448	454	483	553	660	573	568	614	632	598	595	586
TSP	1A3bvii	311	348	352	368	390	378	402	463	552	482	476	514	528	499	496	488
TSP	2C3	3999	3881	2442	2669	2356	2140	3403	2964	33	27	26	44	128	109	115	116

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	808539	739755	810394	860533	760955	791146	863450	913076	863443	885460	892869	913383	931447	938503	876457	898059	913367	869666	840346	648587	681776
Pb	1A3bi	310515313	278936852	267143879	285659517	286803066	179488259	69923997	60218397	45230130	38314004	31466148	15902046	5165030	5050664	4563597	4529237	4474178	4375877	4703952	4425203	4247561	4358800	4247261	3967824	3766872	3740630
Pb	1A4bi	797026	930692	804479	694993	586025	538851	509915	462653	439155	441047	425154	418471	420085	427546	422305	421716	429690	437814	446173	569514	588782	583164	580417	600008	498239	524816
Pb	2A3	839459	870489	929196	990207	1064189	1142589	1223945	1286869	1358018	1751744	3801847	2842918	2819252	3279027	890861	395678	374029	365845	364755	286453	238805	210904	207545	197238	193760	211399
Pb	2C1	2781024	1612296	1717166	1567610	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295	1642984
Pb	2C5	254463400	219628600	207152800	190553200	184985200	194230400	179243200	83869322	81376024	82025369	88742616	98324952	93645599	108993501	118028451	119018761	131676623	14403	17329	15093	17669	17018	17108	18264	19061	19645
Pb	2C7a	1578280	1141030	1227050	826760	645150	708840	697840	990509	1246907	1244363	1449324	1388528	1446804	1395730	1301906	1233567	1294266	1565032	1480917	1024965	1049223	642769	25364	34805	58920	67156
Cd	1A1a	102015	92038	101370	97434	94222	97459	89476	97591	103526	91499	95212	104498	110019	103940	106441	107052	109560	111641	111035	104165	106589	108258	103111	99617	76918	80398
Cd	2C1	183295	106265	113177	103320	86278	82956	67122	77800	79321	80842	92951	92486	96232	108286	114188	121145	130984	133779	135296	91565	128234	137406	134290	132516	129715	126383
Cd	2C5	658095	568005	535740	492810	478410	502320	463560	216903	210455	212135	229507	254289	242187	281880	305246	307807	340543	37	45	39	46	44	44	47	49	51
Cd	2C6	92120	81725	24675	14735	22715	37030	22610	29861	31209	23501	32564	22705	13392	18603	19101	20797	28664	7837	2156	23008	23259	25144	43589	65776	44828	54058
Cd	2C7a	33000	23858	25656	17287	13490	14821	14591	20711	26072	26018	30304	29033	30251	29183	27222	25793	27062	32723	30965	21431	21938	13440	530	728	1232	1404
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1358076	1153708	1080110	1001249	970456	1008421	939306	727925	735916	689298	739163	762279	761652	828241	865462	887040	935263	578565	579792	590493	651778	647688	636718	668175	585403	607628
Hg	2C1	36027	20887	22245	20308	21570	20739	16780	19450	19830	20211	23238	23122	24058	27071	28547	30286	32746	33445	33824	22891	32058	34351	33572	33129	32429	31596

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	558	506	565	541	532	548	496	543	577	512	531	577	612	580	596	617	634	646	719	639	648	667	638	619	486	522
DIOX	1A2gviii	535	436	402	382	395	374	381	327	357	104	111	91	196	224	206	230	272	295	264	227	261	191	146	172	253	220
DIOX	2C1	3792	2199	2342	2138	1294	1244	1007	1167	1190	1213	1394	1387	1443	1624	1713	1817	1965	2007	2029	1373	1924	2061	2014	1988	1946	1896
HCB	1A1a	363671	328184	373042	357211	346653	358235	327736	360536	383142	338686	352076	383169	406217	384024	394141	395346	403790	412297	407762	393096	406996	412959	391475	376917	291316	305319
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470	22221
PCB	2C7a	53087600	38380100	41273500	27809200	21700500	23842800	23472800	33317124	41941431	41855847	48749975	46705044	48665242	46947269	43791387	41492695	43534404	52641990	49812660	34476082	35292036	21620413	853146	1170721	1981853	2258876