Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A1a	17576	14398	14523	15184	15092	13567	13630	15496	15914	12896	14068	14767	16445	14732	12749	12613	12815	11671	11629	10469	10853	10590	9977	9048	6710
NMVOC	1B1a	1730	1614	1749	1605	1532	1555	1485	1591	1573	1467	1441	1329	1507	1553	1547	1460	1454	1454	1454	1424	1425	1448	1376	1269	1000
NMVOC	5A	1048	1063	1073	1083	1095	1103	1131	1159	1187	1217	1248	1279	1310	1318	1265	1237	1309	1266	1298	1140	972	1008	696	489	452
NH3	3Da1	1962	1727	2847	2456	2498	2594	2235	2566	2600	2571	2594	2638	2722	2746	2334	2421	2381	2283	1730	2637	2298	2088	2281	2190	2106
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	23819	22440	23518	21844	21774	21950	21314	21631	21755	21552	22420	22222	23302	22036	20284	20863	20877	21406	19962	21197	20465	19574	19476	19206	19134

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	2C3	1333	1294	814	888	785	704	1120	974	11	8	9	15	43	36	38
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	12986	13047	12839	12978	12846	13266	13450	13046	12857	14167	14325	13950	13800	14041	12316
PM10	1A3bvi	284	307	310	323	340	344	366	420	501	435	431	466	479	454	451
PM10	2C3	2666	2587	1628	1776	1569	1409	2239	1948	21	16	17	29	85	72	77
TSP	1A3bvi	374	405	408	426	448	454	483	553	660	573	568	614	632	598	595
TSP	1A3bvii	311	348	352	368	390	378	402	463	552	482	476	514	528	499	496
TSP	2C3	3999	3881	2442	2663	2354	2113	3359	2923	32	24	26	44	128	109	115
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	2124	2094	2106	2184	2297	2477	2486	2470	2643	2689	2718	2648	2595	2587	2252

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	831639	750955	840363	806002	782396	808539	739755	810394	860533	760955	791146	863450	913076	863443	885460	892869	913383	931447	938503	876457	898059	913367	869666	840346	648587
Pb	1A3bi	310515313	278936852	267143879	285659517	286803066	179488259	69923997	60218397	45230130	38314004	31466148	15902046	5165030	5050664	4563597	4529237	4474178	4375877	4703952	4425203	4247561	4358800	4247261	3967824	3766872
Pb	1A4bi	797026	930692	804479	694993	586025	538851	509915	462653	439155	441047	425154	418471	420085	427546	422305	421716	429690	437814	446173	569514	588782	583164	580417	600008	498239
Pb	2A3	839459	870489	929196	990207	1064189	1142589	1223945	1286869	1358018	1751744	3801847	2842918	2819252	3279027	890861	395678	374029	365845	364755	286453	238805	210904	207545	197238	193760
Pb	2C1	2781024	1612296	1717166	1567610	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272	1745768	1722709	1686295
Pb	2C5	254463400	219628600	207152800	190553200	184985200	194230400	179243200	83869322	81376024	82025369	88742616	98324952	93645599	108993501	118028451	119018761	131676623	14403	17329	15093	17669	17018	17108	18264	19061
Pb	2C7a	1578280	1141030	1227050	826760	645150	708840	697840	990509	1246907	1244363	1449324	1388528	1446804	1395730	1301906	1233567	1294266	1565032	1480917	1024965	1049223	642769	25364	34805	58920
Cd	1A1a	102015	92038	101370	97434	94222	97459	89476	97591	103526	91499	95212	104498	110019	103940	106441	107052	109560	111641	111035	104165	106589	108258	103111	99617	76918
Cd	2C1	183295	106265	113177	103320	8628	8296	6712	7780	7932	8084	9295	9249	9623	10829	11419	12115	13098	13378	13530	9156	12823	13741	13429	13252	12972
Cd	2C5	658095	568005	535740	492810	478410	502320	463560	216903	210455	212135	229507	254289	242187	281880	305246	307807	340543	37	45	39	46	44	44	47	49
Cd	2C6	92120	81725	24675	14735	22715	37030	22610	29861	31209	23501	32564	22705	13392	18603	19101	20797	28664	7837	2156	23008	23259	25144	43589	65776	44828
Cd	2C7a	33000	23858	25656	17287	13490	14821	14591	20711	26072	26018	30304	29033	30251	29183	27222	25793	27062	32723	30965	21431	21938	13440	530	728	1232
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1358076	1153708	1080110	1001249	892806	933761	878897	657905	664527	616540	655508	679042	675043	730784	762693	778009	817377	458164	458026	508084	536368	524024	515857	548911	468659
Hg	2C1	36027	20887	22245	20308	21570	20739	16780	19450	19830	20211	23238	23122	24058	27071	28547	30286	32746	33445	33824	22891	32058	34351	33572	33129	32429

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A1a	558	506	565	541	532	548	496	543	577	512	531	577	612	580	596	617	634	646	719	639	648	667	638	619	486
DIOX	1A2gviii	535	436	402	382	395	374	381	327	357	104	111	91	196	224	206	230	272	295	264	227	261	191	146	172	253
DIOX	2C1	3792	2199	2342	2138	1294	1244	1007	1167	1190	1213	1394	1387	1443	1624	1713	1817	1965	2007	2029	1373	1924	2061	2014	1988	1946
DIOX	2C7a	717	519	558	376	293	322	317	450	567	566	659	631	658	634	592	561	588	711	673	466	477	292	12	16	27
HCB	1A1a	363671	328184	373042	357211	346653	358235	327736	360536	383142	338686	352076	383169	406217	384024	394141	395346	403790	412297	407762	393096	406996	412959	391475	376917	291316
HCB	5C1bii	1630	1630	1630	1630	912	536	778	146	670	2062	2522	2380	1892	2764	2731	2650	3232	3973	4182	5169	5671	5721	5989	13765	16470
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	46747228	40740901	37634176	37805028	37605201	37522310	36270277	37668424	37413490	37886486	38303562	38266962	552395	549267	526695	537510	544428	550868	554117	564710	648070	643266	615367	612973	507523
PCB	2C7a	53087600	38380100	41273500	27809200	21700500	23842800	23472800	33317124	41941431	41855847	48749975	46705044	48665242	46947269	43791387	41492695	43534404	52641990	49812660	34476082	35292036	21620413	853146	1170721	1981853