Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	65362	60369	58019	59129	60077	59499	63295	59362	53504	49863	48101	46727	45922	44437	42032	39813	39568	37709	35854	34857	34744	31826
SOx	1A2d	6377	6425	8265	6419	7701	5965	4618	3193	1315	1203	825	711	841	434	437	835	455	233	182	249	808	1266
NH3	4D1a	1303	1139	1867	1600	1628	1546	1501	1630	1669	1649	1638	1667	1602	1654	1451	1399	1457	1420	1200	1352	1318	1301
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	336287	324949	294895	308690	301875	300837	312903	283982	244454	218379	213113	206490	200504	197805	181914	177639	168579	162633	158722	155429	160652	148060

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	2C3	1400	1358	855	932	824	740	1175	1023	11	8	9	15
PM10	2C3	3199	3104	1953	2131	1883	1690	2687	2338	26	19	21	35
TSP	2C3	3999	3881	2442	2663	2354	2113	3359	2923	32	24	26	44

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a	973538	879471	986054	944870	916904	947697	867410	950746	1009666	892780	928161	1012629	1071153	1013247	1035977	1039733	1062751	1087752	1096212	1013233	1035215	1052342
Pb	1A2fii	13941606	3283081	2376629	2803247	2293996	1000168	332495	284384	306469	214283	151897	19833	81	68						4	5	3
Pb	1A3bii			9078127	10119636	9005890	5153306	1889287	1496732	963131	790460	742329	299370	176960	182829	165587	201645	145677	155085	177947	139125	176262	180511
Pb	1A4bi	988869	1218748	1098398	1064044	963264	956514	999727	976179	962660	988082	934392	941550	934746	933213	921770	891025	862860	819139	852922	923769	980984	866564
Pb	2A7d	839459	870489	929196	990207	1064189	1142589	1223945	1286869	1358018	1751744	3801847	2842918	2819252	3279027	890861	395678	374029	365845	364755	286453	238805	210904
Pb	2C1	2781024	1612296	1717166	1567610	1121617	1078428	872586	1011405	1031177	1050949	1208358	1202323	1251011	1407715	1484444	1574888	1702795	1739130	1758843	1190345	1667039	1786272
Pb	2C5a	717400	518650	557750	375800	293250	723200	857650	855400	855400	1038100	1199250	1095800	1186650	1081450	1070950	878585	1094779	1173434	1154259	842175	900440	646710
Pb	2C5b	6580950	5680050	5357400	4928100	4781100	5015700	4635600	2202450	2145450	2157600	2340900	2595150	2461500	2874150	3105000	3105000	3480353	3800723	4481586	3903330	4569653	4401195
Pb	2C5d	526400	467000	141000	84200	137000	126600	129200	2523000	2641800	2367800	2762200	2691200	1895000	2312600	2464000	2454392	3005088	2653007	2314461	2547560	2478196	2614240
Cd	2C1	183295	106265	113177	103320	8628	8296	6712	7780	7932	8084	9295	9249	9623	10829	11419	12115	13098	13378	13530	9156	12823	13741
Cd	2C5a	28696	20746	22310	15032	11730	28928	34306	34216	34216	41524	47970	43832	47466	43258	42838	35143	43791	46937	46170	33687	36018	25868
Cd	2C5d	5264	4670	1410	842	1370	1266	1292	25230	26418	23678	27622	26912	18950	23126	24640	24544	30051	26530	23145	25476	24782	26142
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	592320	473030	476494	443508	346623	378194	377531	363464	372789	366122	383798	398235	394236	397188	405522	399280	425236	433566	452361	397334	417944	398629
Hg	2C1	36027	20887	22245	20308	21570	20739	16780	19450	19830	20211	23238	23122	24058	27071	28547	30286	32746	33445	33824	22891	32058	34351
Hg	2C5a	78914	57052	61352	41338	32258	79552	94342	94094	94094	114191	131918	120538	130532	118960	117804	96644	120426	129078	126969	92639	99048	71138
Hg	2C5d	19740	17512	5288	3158	5138	4748	4845	94612	99068	88792	103582	100920	71062	86722	92400	92040	112691	99488	86792	95534	92932	98034

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A1a	621	554	547	546	528	535	503	539	550	500	502	545	569	544	534	545	554	580	739	625	615	644
DIOX	2C1	506	293	312	285	345	332	268	311	317	323	372	370	385	433	457	485	524	535	541	366	513	550
DIOX	2C5a	287	207	223	150	117	289	343	342	342	415	480	438	475	433	428	351	438	469	462	337	360	259
HCB	1A4bi	68970	69607	69006	68483	67963	67738	67600	67374	67262	67271	67183	67115	67086	67084	67021	66961	66917	66917	66917	73813	78847	70881
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	46426347	40454177	37307530	37499617	37316388	37230092	36028310	37402491	37109316	37620490	38037459	38007350	234463	265233	247806	292938	317008	379766	460015	408561	467020	492937