Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3348	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6734	6649	7697	8580	8802	9649	8282	6830	6912	7527	7039	7407	8064	7638	8932	9897	10114	9735	3524	3703
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4120	4021	4238	4193	4046	3894	3809	3574	3520	3528	3523	3059	3029	3005	3005
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	289244	293466	279349	266235	269163	257900	252858	241486	231759	225092	222230	212192	204502	200384	196684	193303	191510	186319	178377	164946	169518	163472	156098	152732	150788	146879	144013	138584	134394	125419	116695	115157
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	289244	293466	279349	266235	269163	257900	252858	241486	231759	225092	222230	212192	204502	200384	196684	181233	191510	186319	178377	164946	169518	163472	156098	152732	150788	146879	144013	138584	134394	125419	102555	101881
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	289244	293466	279349	266235	269163	257900	252858	241486	231759	225092	222230	212192	204502	200384	196684	193303	191510	186319	178377	164946	169518	163472	156098	152732	150788	146879	144013	138584	134394	125419	116695	115157
NMVOC	2D3d	34613	32204	29795	27386	24977	24209	23441	22673	18973	20202	20527	19624	22680	22729	22360	23084	21491	26577	20309	13153	10974	11683	13090	11552	10887	10594	11786	8706	8061	9196	9447	9532
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	391	318	263	360	395	422	435	459	493	556	570	551	474	462	523	570	591	650	729	620	627	672	642	665	675	648	757	831	838	795	278	297
SOx	1A3biii	4280	3073	2317	1084	1421	1206	568	110	117	75	54	20	19	19	7	8	7	9	9	10	9	10	9	8	9	9	12	7	10	7	7	8
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	100	59	48	57	74	198	148
NH3	3Da1	5929	5469	4628	5377	5587	5079	4905	5196	5211	4771	4674	4877	4566	4623	4759	4295	4303	4393	4848	3362	3934	4125	3774	4234	4445	4419	4631	4753	4689	4408	4908	4587
NH3	3Da2a	17475	16873	17312	18016	18298	18168	18341	18236	17914	17554	17149	16806	16900	16558	16630	16414	16027	16023	15920	15616	15581	15996	15748	15662	15478	15486	14848	14757	14629	14144	14156	13899
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	60349	58350	59415	60654	61699	61135	61223	62488	61876	60366	59661	59109	58604	58612	58871	57405	56471	56132	56596	53784	54326	53973	52836	53767	53684	53751	52484	52697	52524	51832	51979	50998
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60349	58350	59415	60654	61699	61135	61223	62488	61876	60366	59661	59109	58604	58612	58871	57405	56471	56132	56596	53784	54326	53973	52836	53767	53684	53751	52484	52697	52524	51832	51979	50998
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	60349	58350	59415	60654	61699	61135	61223	62488	61876	60366	59661	59109	58604	58612	58871	57405	56471	56132	56596	53784	54326	53973	52836	53767	53684	53751	52484	52697	52524	51832	51979	50998
CO	2C3	6852	6896	5516	5877	5983	6694	6942	6947	6838	7065	7187	7236	7181	6889	7105	7236	7227	8679	5857	4926	7051	8122	11178	10866	11556	9897	11077	12204	13552	12689	12489	10291

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
BC	1A3ai(ii)	55	53	46	44	50	55	57	62	70	60	60	65	62	64	65	62	73	80	80	76	27	28

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	2746811	2157331	1987117	1954572	1976837	1737918	2615933	1831755	2014587	1504849	1305232	1591493	1721742	1896263	1763461	1784556	1876599	2123177	2198556	1945725	2700909	2227384	2243754	2214944	1965068	1954775	2123979	2146178	2134307	2142372	1941032	2440884
Pb	1A2d	949405	914191	975780	1040156	1194454	1121138	1019270	1081813	1000642	857539	968657	1191333	1054923	979756	975261	948688	985841	928828	948892	926838	977266	897598	885925	846687	751900	759405	760707	765477	747075	757913	704188	726465
Pb	1A2gviii	548159	578059	638550	631323	746143	776190	806473	768972	757441	740966	443641	490028	465520	461649	431916	377560	484476	485446	419761	380707	450235	430250	420893	432498	423930	413688	429586	447772	431015	430668	394283	382889
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639	216507	197696	170198	131662	129215	124700
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793	827333	811984	662522	520178	541105	483213
Pb	1A3bi	258120104	240762993	223754546	89618093	10983107	884299	4666	4570	4466	4503	4464	4500	4572	4546	4473	4411	4276	4158	3863	3737	3459	3174	2880	2697	2577	2489	2379	2287	2194	2118	1925	1944
Pb	1A3bii	16174793	15974045	14930906	5927530	722379	57575	296	283	258	240	200	182	168	148	131	120	105	96	84	77	67	62	53	46	43	41	30	28	26	25	25	25
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4763450	3942034	3074830	2222558	1337954	415931	422183	432784	436642	428586	429292	436556	431742	433939	439487	449401	462613	469639	475275	465994	442129	450340
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400	13030	7350	12700	15110	5746	10678
Pb	2C1	24447100	21040718	17332386	9752288	7887180	4677379	2846487	2652925	3010111	1747300	1807870	1269315	1169773	937742	888124	1353031	1407658	1192864	1364368	790498	1115413	795528	896700	638634	539557	622036	518692	360608	445684	695377	520490	515647
Pb	2C7c	52033554	29328043	32868951	22353314	13241330	8839844	6120039	7332043	6381947	5726528	3979728	5223530	3413724	4214980	4467043	3492650	3363638	4231409	2659466	2850595	2575339	2194081	2360247	2096529	3355779	2646729	3421787	3514291	2415280	2514428	1828484	947807
Pb	5C2	4463	4484	4513	4528	4538	4546	269654	311326	278960	214125	147373	151144	181550	148380	124800	400225	471792	400751	407942	332036	239801	332629	231531	371234	70004	124163	98626	125477	199359	160270	848111	188457
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	369272576	325038804	306567129	143657997	47913969	29519939	24759401	25093854	24197448	21818374	18922239	17205193	14361095	14216252	13191849	11597936	11185324	11955521	10386741	9602549	10419954	9254420	9224578	8725170	8974490	8321963	9202605	9247611	8144310	8415914	7865688	6846617
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	369272576	325038804	306567129	143657997	47913969	29519939	24759401	25093854	24197448	21818374	18922239	17205193	14361095	14216252	13191849	11597936	11185324	11955521	10386741	9602549	10419954	9254420	9224578	8725170	8974490	8321963	9202605	9247611	8144310	8415914	7865688	6846617
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	369272576	325038804	306567129	143657997	47913969	29519939	24759401	25093854	24197448	21818374	18922239	17205193	14361095	14216252	13191849	11597936	11185324	11955521	10386741	9602549	10419954	9254420	9224578	8725170	8974490	8321963	9202605	9247611	8144310	8415914	7865688	6846617
Cd	1A2d	66256	63109	50692	52885	58882	54705	49374	50816	48245	42033	48328	62793	54209	49428	49679	49639	51967	50677	52484	52025	55068	51551	51259	49598	44779	45489	45456	45639	44180	45457	42314	43513
Cd	2C7c	1337102	832952	750535	492422	183162	173512	152572	179897	121532	69327	60312	141242	60102	55031	68404	71343	91932	108346	50833	51716	27695	40701	56781	33390	80262	40149	27774	60044	50073	40078	75090	24134
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2265320	1717277	1356485	1076503	766702	749404	718347	709872	637658	552856	536218	616368	541019	536675	548446	552051	577755	581164	525235	543292	550313	533630	534932	508033	517630	476746	482296	523408	487348	496198	495262	476426
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2265320	1717277	1356485	1076503	766702	749404	718347	709872	637658	552856	536218	616368	541019	536675	548446	552051	577755	581164	525235	543292	550313	533630	534932	508033	517630	476746	482296	523408	487348	496198	495262	476426
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	2265320	1717277	1356485	1076503	766702	749404	718347	709872	637658	552856	536218	616368	541019	536675	548446	552051	577755	581164	525235	543292	550313	533630	534932	508033	517630	476746	482296	523408	487348	496198	495262	476426
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	16711	15179	13240	14458	18827	15677	14761	15361	15665	16195	15877	15709	15226	15985	15008	15115	14812	13648	13737	13644	13601	13256	13783	12680	12978
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1572764	1252683	1181376	1044338	1062402	992527	1049377	862993	868530	872264	753612	593146	629529	710905	726978	675415	526491	571581	515996	552588	536678	523692	489687	515156	449819	421458	452266	435748	422747	417895	395547	412012
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1572764	1252683	1181376	1044338	1062402	992527	1049377	862993	868530	872264	753612	593146	629529	710905	726978	675415	526491	571581	515996	552588	536678	523692	489687	515156	449819	421458	452266	435748	422747	417895	395547	412012
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1572764	1252683	1181376	1044338	1062402	992527	1049377	862993	868530	872264	753612	593146	629529	710905	726978	675415	526491	571581	515996	552588	536678	523692	489687	515156	449819	421458	452266	435748	422747	417895	395547	412012

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	2C1	26789	21554	20443	20324	19076	13849	9117	7966	8195	8057	7895	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330	1336	1332	1035	762	1119	945
DIOX	5C1bv	524	536	543	551	542	547	556	567	569	583	585	587	599	603	593	609	601	611	621	626	628	636	644	651	642	665	660	673	681	661	731	697
DIOX	5E	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8201	8088	7483	8291	8030	8336	7154	7772	7855	8122	7954	8423	8726	7708	7858	7498	7189	6916	7749	7715	8206	8194	8003	8374
HCB	1A2d	215350	241978	234215	241056	246772	219934	198365	193164	200892	176915	212494	280857	240784	213503	215820	225948	242156	241177	260404	264073	279488	265051	267393	270023	250814	254817	260042	259690	250511	258974	243618	252015
HCB	2C1	427385	388049	401105	448051	459393	480661	455831	467311	453422	392258	441384	402173	426000	462641	483173	504410	510958	567688	600198	443886	666998	691623	718793	694882	699844	667869	715798	729749	712663	723823	725645	714342
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	16558077	16606171	16642817	16723269	16818558	16839963	16948181	16794412	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5845058	3661206	9897654	6559676	4262400	3770837	4276630	3428813	3833872	2721863	3086148	2799519	2727825	2593674	3051318
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	16558077	16606171	16642817	16723269	16818558	16839963	16948181	16794412	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5845058	3661206	9897654	6559676	4262400	3770837	4276630	3428813	3833872	2721863	3086148	2799519	2727825	2593674	3051318
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	16558077	16606171	16642817	16723269	16818558	16839963	16948181	16794412	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5845058	3661206	9897654	6559676	4262400	3770837	4276630	3428813	3833872	2721863	3086148	2799519	2727825	2593674	3051318
PCB	1A2d	492210	534091	390236	449549	439243	297953	288052	316168	222826	189297	147210	146385	97735	108664	126015	185219	171163	148504	81999	71705	50100	27869	50233	67612	79350	56742	43661	30088	56290	45736	26306	14786
PCB	2C1	5932580	5046508	5462917	5859465	6367206	6679548	6295569	7023988	6834263	6351188	7012144	6533438	6817160	6626103	6917257	6763411	7040070	7339212	6975985	4341792	6595682	7084685	6087484	5971004	6515461	6517685	6718859	7075127	6996037	7080985	6764579	7049833
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9208838	8529332	7988472	8569271	8978910	9573586	9168396	9889926	9635077	8690425	9810768	9361287	9456642	8986980	9483669	9444167	9803878	9956077	9534005	6362227	9168434	9792224	8767235	8467112	9009132	9058784	9174017	9532447	9368867	9225581	8778838	9069321
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9208838	8529332	7988472	8569271	8978910	9573586	9168396	9889926	9635077	8690425	9810768	9361287	9456642	8986980	9483669	9444167	9803878	9956077	9534005	6362227	9168434	9792224	8767235	8467112	9009132	9058784	9174017	9532447	9368867	9225581	8778838	9069321
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	9208838	8529332	7988472	8569271	8978910	9573586	9168396	9889926	9635077	8690425	9810768	9361287	9456642	8986980	9483669	9444167	9803878	9956077	9534005	6362227	9168434	9792224	8767235	8467112	9009132	9058784	9174017	9532447	9368867	9225581	8778838	9069321