Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A1a	14353	16708	15927	15042	15840	12358	15113	10820	11835	10677	9068	9504	11553	12803	11858	12302	12468	11471	12004	13385	15720	12937	12918	12195	11434	11449	12464	12340	12639	12353	11413
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4113	4017	4229	4185	4043	3891	3811	3574	3520	3527	3523	3059	3029	3002
NMVOC	2D3d	34613	32204	29795	27386	24977	24209	23441	22673	18973	20202	20527	19624	22680	22729	22360	23084	21491	26577	20309	13153	10974	11683	13090	11552	10887	10594	11786	8706	8061	9196	9444
SOx	1A3biii	4317	3078	2302	1067	1404	1190	560	109	115	72	52	21	19	19	16	22	18	15	15	14	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	10	10	10	9
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	100	59	48	57	74	198
NH3	3Da1	5929	5469	4628	5377	5587	5079	4905	5196	5211	4771	4674	4877	4566	4623	4759	4295	4303	4393	4848	3362	3934	4125	3774	4234	4445	4419	4631	4753	4689	4408	4908
NH3	3Da2a	17454	16853	17290	17994	18276	18146	18319	18212	17891	17531	17128	16786	16876	16533	16606	16382	16027	16023	15920	15616	15581	15996	15748	15661	15478	15486	14848	14757	14628	14144	14156
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	60349	58353	59415	60658	61702	61137	61226	62496	61884	60454	59768	59220	58957	58984	59233	57836	57048	56778	57190	54365	54913	54534	53519	54582	54545	54666	53437	53674	53567	53030	53309
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60349	58353	59415	60658	61702	61137	61226	62496	61884	60454	59768	59220	58957	58984	59233	57836	57048	56778	57190	54365	54913	54534	53519	54582	54545	54666	53437	53674	53567	53030	53309
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	60349	58353	59415	60658	61702	61137	61226	62496	61884	60454	59768	59220	58957	58984	59233	57836	57048	56778	57190	54365	54913	54534	53519	54582	54545	54666	53437	53674	53567	53030	53309
CO	2C3	6741	6785	5405	5765	5872	6583	6830	6836	6727	6954	7076	7126	7069	6817	7052	7176	7117	8589	5714	4879	6730	7931	11095	10783	11472	9814	10994	12121	13469	12606	12406

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	2746811	2157331	1987117	1954572	1976837	1736065	2614231	1830190	2014273	1504605	1305050	1590127	1714553	1887515	1757918	1776164	1858633	2103160	2182109	1926331	2673971	2211040	2225345	2197056	1952705	1943631	2109981	2133229	2122549	2129529	1913392
Pb	1A2d	949483	914279	975853	1040250	1194567	1121241	1019437	1081970	1000792	857811	968771	1191393	1054985	980235	975750	949184	986304	922890	941902	923759	975410	893822	882571	844312	747411	754851	755603	759437	752546	764026	710008
Pb	1A2gviii	548199	578069	638562	631334	746158	776190	806487	768972	757441	740966	443883	490034	465520	461649	431916	377536	484451	485419	419733	380679	450209	430222	420873	431864	423340	413053	429140	447221	430528	426780	390172
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639	216507	197696	170198	131662	129215
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793	827333	811984	662522	520178	541105
Pb	1A3bi	258201802	240870392	223920452	89698386	10994198	885327	4672	4577	4472	4508	4468	4506	4577	4556	4485	4434	4313	4216	3951	3891	3627	3357	3072	2903	2786	2725	2623	2508	2396	2313	2113
Pb	1A3bii	16099490	15861267	14762643	5838973	710194	56372	290	276	251	233	194	176	163	143	126	116	101	93	81	75	65	60	52	45	41	39	31	27	26	25	25
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4764854	3943324	3076590	2224173	1339179	416385	422635	433344	437228	429617	430163	436940	432516	434540	440289	449787	462039	468723	473674	462644	436583
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400	13030	7350	12700	15110	5746
Pb	2C1	23392238	20307738	16699739	9181253	7169021	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692	401463	334820	214218	317267	576332	426372
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444	2647000	3421730	3514130	2408960	2508090	1812100
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	368170870	324247890	305876631	143054286	47191889	29083535	24015640	24321569	23340649	21198642	18175543	16555347	13646442	13596941	12647277	10523660	10174119	11115446	9418474	8867293	9596523	8504898	8516011	8162518	8776044	7965698	8905524	8959104	7803104	8120331	6888676
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	368170870	324247890	305876631	143054286	47191889	29083535	24015640	24321569	23340649	21198642	18175543	16555347	13646442	13596941	12647277	10523660	10174119	11115446	9418474	8867293	9596523	8504898	8516011	8162518	8776044	7965698	8905524	8959104	7803104	8120331	6888676
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	368170870	324247890	305876631	143054286	47191889	29083535	24015640	24321569	23340649	21198642	18175543	16555347	13646442	13596941	12647277	10523660	10174119	11115446	9418474	8867293	9596523	8504898	8516011	8162518	8776044	7965698	8905524	8959104	7803104	8120331	6888676
Cd	1A2d	66303	63162	50699	52894	58893	54715	49391	50831	48260	42060	48340	62799	54216	49476	49728	49689	52013	50340	52077	51855	54985	51334	51076	49468	44516	45220	45154	45284	44544	45875	42717
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79	83	241	98	111	182	51
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283	40920	27800	60066	50074	40074	75047
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	60734	60503	68738	58417	56377	54035	41004	42656	47623	39306	35016	35112	30568	28582	26574	28696	28661	28595	25975
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2313685	1746072	1376643	1088296	768932	748638	715753	710416	628492	544563	528264	608775	532384	527496	539111	538727	562185	575140	519513	539412	546710	526992	528585	501445	515334	473823	479565	516610	484865	493345	489269
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2313685	1746072	1376643	1088296	768932	748638	715753	710416	628492	544563	528264	608775	532384	527496	539111	538727	562185	575140	519513	539412	546710	526992	528585	501445	515334	473823	479565	516610	484865	493345	489269
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	2313685	1746072	1376643	1088296	768932	748638	715753	710416	628492	544563	528264	608775	532384	527496	539111	538727	562185	575140	519513	539412	546710	526992	528585	501445	515334	473823	479565	516610	484865	493345	489269
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	16711	15179	13240	14458	18827	15677	14761	15361	15665	16195	15749	15563	15157	15934	14928	15039	14758	13555	13644	13540	13477	13347	13880	12770
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1554207	1235618	1164249	1024978	1042984	971371	1029838	842621	848201	854899	734444	575575	610625	690515	705372	654195	504672	547983	490633	534208	507772	492163	456344	480246	422816	400761	405880	400404	400121	395517	371241
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1554207	1235618	1164249	1024978	1042984	971371	1029838	842621	848201	854899	734444	575575	610625	690515	705372	654195	504672	547983	490633	534208	507772	492163	456344	480246	422816	400761	405880	400404	400121	395517	371241
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1554207	1235618	1164249	1024978	1042984	971371	1029838	842621	848201	854899	734444	575575	610625	690515	705372	654195	504672	547983	490633	534208	507772	492163	456344	480246	422816	400761	405880	400404	400121	395517	371241

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	2C1	26789	21554	20443	20324	19076	13849	9117	7966	8195	8057	7895	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330	1336	1332	1035	762	1119
DIOX	5E	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8071	8201	8088	7483	8291	8030	8336	7154	7772	7855	8122	7954	8423	8726	7708	7858	7498	7189	6916	7748	7709	8204	8191	7992
HCB	1A2d	215350	241978	234215	241056	246772	219934	198365	193164	200892	176915	212494	280857	240784	213503	215820	225948	242156	240972	260170	263963	279406	264923	267270	269937	250665	254668	259875	259491	252034	260592	245649
HCB	2C1	427385	388049	401105	448051	459393	480661	455831	467311	453422	392258	441384	402173	426000	462641	483173	504410	510958	567688	600198	443886	666998	691623	718793	694882	699844	667869	715798	729749	712663	723823	725645
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	16509194	16557288	16593933	16674386	16769675	16791080	16912441	16758672	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5844757	3660883	9899038	6559505	4262175	3770593	4274402	3428050	3833218	2721217	3085509	2800212	2727607	2582714
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	16509194	16557288	16593933	16674386	16769675	16791080	16912441	16758672	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5844757	3660883	9899038	6559505	4262175	3770593	4274402	3428050	3833218	2721217	3085509	2800212	2727607	2582714
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	16509194	16557288	16593933	16674386	16769675	16791080	16912441	16758672	16778265	16672001	10642383	5885786	8527401	14398824	3533687	4497966	5252109	5844757	3660883	9899038	6559505	4262175	3770593	4274402	3428050	3833218	2721217	3085509	2800212	2727607	2582714
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337	56728	43645	30069	56314	45765	26334
PCB	2C1	5932580	5046508	5462917	5859465	6367206	6679548	6295569	7023988	6834263	6351188	7012144	6533438	6817160	6626103	6917257	6763411	7040070	7339212	6975985	4341792	6595682	7084685	6087484	5971004	6515461	6517685	6718859	7075127	6996037	7080985	6764579
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9208840	8529335	7988473	8569272	8978911	9574050	9168824	9890319	9635157	8690489	9810820	9361633	9458445	8989180	9485068	9446282	9808381	9959734	9536884	6367967	9173730	9794962	8770152	8470416	9010533	9059903	9175628	9533455	9372061	9228745	8785223
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9208840	8529335	7988473	8569272	8978911	9574050	9168824	9890319	9635157	8690489	9810820	9361633	9458445	8989180	9485068	9446282	9808381	9959734	9536884	6367967	9173730	9794962	8770152	8470416	9010533	9059903	9175628	9533455	9372061	9228745	8785223
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	9208840	8529335	7988473	8569272	8978911	9574050	9168824	9890319	9635157	8690489	9810820	9361633	9458445	8989180	9485068	9446282	9808381	9959734	9536884	6367967	9173730	9794962	8770152	8470416	9010533	9059903	9175628	9533455	9372061	9228745	8785223