Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3348	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6734	6649	7697	8580	8802	9649	8282	6830	6912	7527	7039	7407	8064	7638	8932	9897	10111	9725
NOx	1A3dii	6879	7056	7232	7409	7590	7770	7949	8052	7105	7190	7206	7070	7204	7794	7825	7682	8003	7657	7596	7975	8622	8592	8091	8344	9010	9257	9577	9334	10836	7900
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4113	4017	4229	4185	4043	3891	3811	3574	3520	3527	3523	3059	3027
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	278644	282809	269923	257653	261031	249649	244944	234168	225314	218596	215380	206272	199297	195777	192350	177381	187829	183419	176077	164025	168795	161924	155732	152822	151057	147334	145059	140029	136635	127040
NMVOC	2D3d	34613	32204	29795	27386	24977	24209	23441	22673	18973	20202	20527	19624	22680	22729	22360	23084	21491	26577	20309	13153	10974	11683	13090	11552	10887	10594	11786	8706	8061	7835
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	366826	351818	332348	299322	293548	278597	273707	252527	241501	233177	223030	212990	208214	209032	206299	173016	199518	204836	195917	180719	176702	174231	165964	158244	154213	154780	147834	140407	136445	134004
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	391	318	263	360	395	422	435	459	493	556	570	551	474	462	523	570	591	650	729	620	627	672	642	665	675	648	757	831	838	794
SOx	1A3biii	4364	3125	2310	1068	1397	1188	559	108	113	72	51	21	19	19	16	22	17	14	14	13	14	14	13	12	12	12	11	11	10	10
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	100	59	48	57	74
NH3	3Da1	5929	5469	4628	5377	5587	5079	4905	5196	5211	4771	4674	4877	4566	4623	4759	4295	4303	4393	4848	3362	3934	4125	3774	4234	4445	4419	4631	4753	4689	4408
NH3	3Da2a	17443	16842	17280	17983	18264	18134	18307	18203	17882	17524	17122	16779	16871	16528	16602	16386	16019	16054	15838	15512	15489	15890	15718	15654	15477	15432	14829	14712	14640	14299
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	60310	58321	59387	60629	61675	61103	61189	62448	61836	60407	59725	59175	58918	58955	59211	57835	57027	56830	57005	54124	54700	54292	53432	54555	54542	54548	53387	53567	53634	53417
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60310	58321	59387	60629	61675	61103	61189	62448	61836	60407	59725	59175	58918	58955	59211	57835	57027	56830	57005	54124	54700	54292	53432	54555	54542	54548	53387	53567	53634	53417
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	60310	58321	59387	60629	61675	61103	61189	62448	61836	60407	59725	59175	58918	58955	59211	57835	57027	56830	57005	54124	54700	54292	53432	54555	54542	54548	53387	53567	53634	53417
CO	2C3	6741	6785	5405	5765	5872	6583	6830	6836	6727	6954	7076	7126	7069	6817	7052	7176	7117	8589	5714	4879	6730	7931	11095	10783	11472	9814	10994	12121	13469	12606

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	2746811	2157331	1987117	1954572	1976837	1736065	2614231	1830190	2014273	1504605	1305050	1590127	1714553	1887515	1757918	1776164	1858633	2103160	2182109	1926331	2673971	2211040	2225345	2197056	1952705	1943631	2110005	2133229	2137835	2142348
Pb	1A2d	949483	914279	975853	1040250	1194567	1121241	1019437	1081970	1000792	857811	968771	1191393	1054985	980235	975750	949184	986304	922890	941902	923759	975410	893822	882571	844312	747411	754851	755603	759437	752546	764026
Pb	1A2gviii	548199	578069	638562	631334	746158	776190	806487	768972	757441	740966	443883	490034	465520	461649	431916	377536	484451	485419	419733	380679	450209	430222	420873	431864	423340	413053	429140	447221	430528	426780
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639	216507	197696	122584	94109
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793	827333	811984	477176	371811
Pb	1A3bi	264239545	244654603	223115214	91203221	11165017	884435	4696	4630	4603	4605	4442	4444	4399	4392	4359	4321	4221	4076	3902	3664	3394	3132	2880	2699	2586	2458	2369	2327	2206	2118
Pb	1A3bii	15820213	15467691	14110937	5694920	693556	54072	280	269	250	231	188	171	154	137	122	112	99	90	82	73	64	59	52	45	41	39	29	27	25	24
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4764854	3943324	3076590	2224173	1339179	416385	422635	433344	437228	429617	430163	436940	432516	434540	440289	449787	462039	468723	473609	463177
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400	13030	7350	12700	15110
Pb	2C1	23392238	20307738	16699739	9181253	7169021	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692	401463	334820	214218	317267	576332
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444	2647000	3421730	3514130	2408960	2508090
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	373900674	327605553	304364188	144391039	47328806	29061563	23992732	24299657	23321507	21182370	18149546	16523347	13608180	13586565	12635795	10522473	10173238	11113502	9417106	8866398	9595319	8504001	8514967	8161611	8775227	7965374	8905162	8959078	7770605	8093936
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	373900674	327605553	304364188	144391039	47328806	29061563	23992732	24299657	23321507	21182370	18149546	16523347	13608180	13586565	12635795	10522473	10173238	11113502	9417106	8866398	9595319	8504001	8514967	8161611	8775227	7965374	8905162	8959078	7770605	8093936
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	373900674	327605553	304364188	144391039	47328806	29061563	23992732	24299657	23321507	21182370	18149546	16523347	13608180	13586565	12635795	10522473	10173238	11113502	9417106	8866398	9595319	8504001	8514967	8161611	8775227	7965374	8905162	8959078	7770605	8093936
Cd	1A2d	66303	63162	50699	52894	58893	54715	49391	50831	48260	42060	48340	62799	54216	49476	49728	49689	52013	50340	52077	51855	54985	51334	51076	49468	44516	45220	45154	45284	44544	45875
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79	83	241	98	111	182
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283	40920	27800	60066	50074	40074
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	60734	60503	68738	58417	56377	54035	41004	42656	47623	39306	35016	35112	30568	28582	26574	28696	28661	28595
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2305790	1740458	1373235	1083521	765281	744662	711029	705960	624549	541366	523082	602524	524903	525688	537117	537056	560719	573406	517802	538485	545252	525670	527437	500409	514324	472981	478607	515487	485002	493019
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2305790	1740458	1373235	1083521	765281	744662	711029	705960	624549	541366	523082	602524	524903	525688	537117	537056	560719	573406	517802	538485	545252	525670	527437	500409	514324	472981	478607	515487	485002	493019
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	2305790	1740458	1373235	1083521	765281	744662	711029	705960	624549	541366	523082	602524	524903	525688	537117	537056	560719	573406	517802	538485	545252	525670	527437	500409	514324	472981	478607	515487	485002	493019
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	16711	15179	13240	14458	18827	15677	14761	15361	15665	16195	15749	15563	15157	15934	14928	15039	14758	13555	13644	13540	13477	13347	13880
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1552558	1234374	1163293	1023800	1041928	970306	1028671	841469	847103	853879	733059	574008	608797	689595	704365	653337	503783	547011	489632	533286	506774	491177	455325	479194	421742	399657	404767	399375	402786	396874
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1552558	1234374	1163293	1023800	1041928	970306	1028671	841469	847103	853879	733059	574008	608797	689595	704365	653337	503783	547011	489632	533286	506774	491177	455325	479194	421742	399657	404767	399375	402786	396874
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1552558	1234374	1163293	1023800	1041928	970306	1028671	841469	847103	853879	733059	574008	608797	689595	704365	653337	503783	547011	489632	533286	506774	491177	455325	479194	421742	399657	404767	399375	402786	396874

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	2C1	26789	21554	20443	20324	19076	13849	9117	7966	8195	8057	7895	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330	1336	1332	1035	710
HCB	1A2d	215350	241978	234215	241056	246772	219934	198365	193164	200892	176915	212494	280857	240784	213503	215820	225948	242156	240972	260170	263963	279406	264923	267270	269937	250665	254668	259875	259491	252034	260592
HCB	2C1	427385	388049	401105	448051	459393	480661	455831	467311	453422	392258	441384	402173	426000	462641	483173	504410	510958	567688	600198	443886	666998	691623	718793	694882	699844	667869	715798	729749	712663	723785
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337	56728	43645	30069	56314	45765
PCB	2C1	5932580	5046508	5462917	5859465	6367206	6679548	6295569	7023988	6834263	6351188	7012144	6533438	6817160	6626103	6917257	6763411	7040070	7339212	6975985	4341792	6595682	7084685	6087484	5971006	6515462	6517685	6718860	7075127	6996037	7013785
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9209266	8528825	7991369	8572575	8983387	9578357	9171297	9892354	9637877	8691921	9814119	9363074	9460638	8990791	9487033	9449355	9811888	9961288	9539906	6370696	9176966	9798738	8773495	8474237	9014646	9065402	9181341	9540546	9377729	9167140
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9209266	8528825	7991369	8572575	8983387	9578357	9171297	9892354	9637877	8691921	9814119	9363074	9460638	8990791	9487033	9449355	9811888	9961288	9539906	6370696	9176966	9798738	8773495	8474237	9014646	9065402	9181341	9540546	9377729	9167140
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	9209266	8528825	7991369	8572575	8983387	9578357	9171297	9892354	9637877	8691921	9814119	9363074	9460638	8990791	9487033	9449355	9811888	9961288	9539906	6370696	9176966	9798738	8773495	8474237	9014646	9065402	9181341	9540546	9377729	9167140