Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3348	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6734	6649	7697	8580	8802	9649	8282	6830	6912	7527	7039	7407	8064	7638	8932	9897	10114
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4113	4017	4229	4185	4043	3891	3794	3573	3546	3513	3523	3059
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	275578	280934	269099	257763	261857	250666	245545	234702	224556	217000	212679	202906	195503	190986	186117	181587	178412	172262	164349	152365	156346	148562	142554	139896	138487	134241	131712	128134	126237
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	275578	280934	269099	257763	261857	250666	245545	234702	224556	217000	212679	202906	195503	190986	186117	169527	178412	172262	164349	152365	156346	148562	142554	139896	138487	134241	131712	128134	126237
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	275578	280934	269099	257763	261857	250666	245545	234702	224556	217000	212679	202906	195503	190986	186117	181587	178412	172262	164349	152365	156346	148562	142554	139896	138487	134241	131712	128134	126237
NMVOC	2D3d	34613	32204	29795	27386	24977	24209	23441	22673	18973	20202	20527	19624	22680	22729	22360	23084	21491	26577	20309	13153	10974	11683	13090	11552	10887	10594	11786	8706	8164
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	358664	343414	324903	293280	287124	273105	268148	247841	237108	229162	220250	210729	205961	206739	204186	170594	197317	202610	193850	178483	174642	172196	164196	156483	152837	153767	146295	139075	133605
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	391	318	263	360	395	422	435	459	493	556	570	551	474	462	523	570	591	650	729	620	627	672	642	665	675	648	757	831	838
SOx	1A3biii	4098	2926	2184	1011	1319	1118	521	101	105	67	48	19	17	17	15	20	16	13	13	12	13	13	11	11	10	10	9	9	8
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	100	59	48	57
NH3	3Da1	5929	5469	4628	5377	5587	5079	4905	5196	5211	4771	4674	4877	4566	4623	4759	4295	4303	4393	4848	3362	3934	4125	3774	4234	4445	4419	4631	4753	4689
NH3	3Da2a	17443	16842	17280	17983	18264	18134	18307	18203	17882	17524	17122	16779	16871	16528	16602	16386	16019	16054	15838	15512	15489	15890	15718	15654	15477	15432	14829	14712	14640
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	60321	58344	59410	60648	61705	61129	61220	62465	61831	60395	59753	59198	58921	58935	59183	57831	57032	56835	57041	54047	54670	54207	53352	54446	54229	54132	53117	53277	53189
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60321	58344	59410	60648	61705	61129	61220	62465	61831	60395	59753	59198	58921	58935	59183	57831	57032	56835	57041	54047	54670	54207	53352	54446	54229	54132	53117	53277	53189
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	60321	58344	59410	60648	61705	61129	61220	62465	61831	60395	59753	59198	58921	58935	59183	57831	57032	56835	57041	54047	54670	54207	53352	54446	54229	54132	53117	53277	53189
CO	2C3	6741	6785	5405	5765	5872	6583	6830	6836	6727	6954	7076	7126	7069	6817	7052	7176	7117	8589	5714	4879	6730	7931	11095	10783	11472	9814	10994	12121	13469

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	2746811	2157331	1987117	1954572	1976837	1736065	2614231	1830190	2014273	1504605	1305050	1590127	1714553	1887515	1757918	1776164	1858633	2103160	2182109	1926331	2667788	2204085	2218952	2190906	1947256	1938375	2104910	2127807	2117201
Pb	1A2d	949483	914279	975853	1040250	1194567	1121241	1019437	1081970	1000792	857811	968771	1191393	1054985	980235	975750	949184	986304	922890	941902	923759	975410	893822	882571	844312	747411	754851	755603	759437	752546
Pb	1A2gviii	548199	578069	638562	631334	746158	776190	806487	768972	757441	740966	443883	490034	465520	461649	431916	377536	484451	485419	419733	380679	450209	430222	420873	431395	422801	411793	429397	447628	430929
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639	216507	197696	170885
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793	827333	811984	665195
Pb	1A3bi	246159741	227791324	208590969	85646239	10440546	3791816	3708816	3670231	3663847	3684063	3596994	3643002	3633325	3667783	3712594	3699812	3623680	3521907	3389396	3189279	3030730	2852698	2576034	2424374	2308738	2216050	2141173	2057787	1928413
Pb	1A3bii	14196263	13836149	12760574	5203293	627670	225880	215572	208706	195475	182634	162292	150330	135948	121596	107560	100725	90757	81553	72113	64239	58121	54739	48799	42659	37979	45445	32760	30849	28424
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4764854	3943324	3076590	2224173	1339179	416385	422635	433344	437228	429617	430163	436940	432516	434540	440289	449421	461533	468013	470366
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400	13030	7350	12700
Pb	2C1	23392238	20307738	16699739	9181253	7169021	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692	401463	334820	214218	317267
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444	2647000	3421730	3514130	2408960
Cd	1A2d	66303	63162	50699	52894	58893	54715	49391	50831	48260	42060	48340	62799	54216	49476	49728	49689	52013	50340	52077	51855	54985	51334	51076	49468	44516	45220	45154	45284	44544
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79	83	241	98	111
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283	40920	27800	60066	50074
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37661	34066	34013	29327	27349	25726	26863	25762
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2306726	1741396	1374157	1084403	766263	745635	712016	706953	625593	542362	524062	603539	524655	520978	537276	536179	558850	570988	515885	536008	544600	524510	526825	504807	516762	476010	480509	517400	484684
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2306726	1741396	1374157	1084403	766263	745635	712016	706953	625593	542362	524062	603539	524655	520978	537276	536179	558850	570988	515885	536008	544600	524510	526825	504807	516762	476010	480509	517400	484684
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	2306726	1741396	1374157	1084403	766263	745635	712016	706953	625593	542362	524062	603539	524655	520978	537276	536179	558850	570988	515885	536008	544600	524510	526825	504807	516762	476010	480509	517400	484684
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	16711	15179	13240	14458	18827	15677	14761	15361	15665	16195	15749	15563	15157	15934	14928	15039	14758	13555	13644	13540	13477	13347
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1544973	1233815	1162711	1023220	1041330	969686	1028010	840822	846420	853218	732394	573313	608129	688938	703726	652709	503167	546442	489048	532708	505468	489741	453917	478731	421100	398760	403471	398143	398865
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1544973	1233815	1162711	1023220	1041330	969686	1028010	840822	846420	853218	732394	573313	608129	688938	703726	652709	503167	546442	489048	532708	505468	489741	453917	478731	421100	398760	403471	398143	398865
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1544973	1233815	1162711	1023220	1041330	969686	1028010	840822	846420	853218	732394	573313	608129	688938	703726	652709	503167	546442	489048	532708	505468	489741	453917	478731	421100	398760	403471	398143	398865

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	2C1	26789	21554	20443	20324	19076	13849	9117	7966	8195	8057	7895	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330	1336	1332	1035
HCB	1A2d	215350	241978	234215	241056	246772	219934	198365	193164	200892	176915	212494	280857	240784	213503	215820	225948	242156	240972	260170	263963	279406	264923	267270	269937	250665	254668	259875	259491	252034
HCB	2B10a	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	15000000	9000000	4100000	6700000	12400000	1500000	2400000	3100000	3600000	1300000	7600000	3900000	1700000	1100000	1600000	900000	1300000	50000	350000	70000
HCB	2C1	427385	388049	401105	448051	459393	480661	455831	467311	453422	392258	441384	402173	426000	462641	483173	504410	510958	567688	600198	443886	666998	691623	718793	694882	699844	667869	715798	729749	733351
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337	56728	43645	30069	56314
PCB	2C1	5932580	5046508	5462917	5859465	6367206	6679548	6295569	7023988	6834263	6351188	7012144	6533438	6817160	6626103	6917257	6763411	7040070	7339212	6975985	4341792	6595682	7084685	6087484	5971006	6515462	6517685	6718860	7075127	7058100
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9217166	8536338	7999913	8581122	8992729	9587294	9178695	9899971	9645320	8699023	9820355	9369559	9467446	8996930	9492577	9454243	9815936	9964764	9543387	6373843	9180294	9801071	8775303	8478026	9018026	9074286	9189862	9549584	9441541
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9217166	8536338	7999913	8581122	8992729	9587294	9178695	9899971	9645320	8699023	9820355	9369559	9467446	8996930	9492577	9454243	9815936	9964764	9543387	6373843	9180294	9801071	8775303	8478026	9018026	9074286	9189862	9549584	9441541
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	9217166	8536338	7999913	8581122	8992729	9587294	9178695	9899971	9645320	8699023	9820355	9369559	9467446	8996930	9492577	9454243	9815936	9964764	9543387	6373843	9180294	9801071	8775303	8478026	9018026	9074286	9189862	9549584	9441541