Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3348	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6733	6648	7695	8539	8759	9615	8269	6812	6896	7509	7031	7399	8055	7627	8922
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4122	4022	4240	4196	4047	3894	3795	3573	3546	3513
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	279706	282582	270029	256720	260414	249751	244679	235147	226771	219682	215528	205636	197929	194277	188721	183742	179572	172869	164559	153928	157410	149870	142571	140317	139073	134359	130785
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14177	12685	10763	10147	8781	7512	9462	9544	9312	10109	11243	9541	9939	11354	8726	7518	8084	8670	8377	8574	8711	8724	8400	8151	7731	8909	7463
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	391	318	263	360	395	422	435	459	493	556	570	551	474	461	523	567	588	648	728	619	625	671	641	664	674	647	756
SOx	1A3biii	4284	3063	2287	1059	1380	1163	542	105	110	69	49	20	18	18	15	20	16	13	13	12	13	13	12	11	11	11	10
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	104	61
NH3	3Da1	5929	5469	4628	5377	5587	5079	4905	5196	5211	4771	4674	4877	4566	4623	4759	4295	4303	4393	4848	3362	3934	4125	3774	4234	4445	4419	4631

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	2746811	2157331	1987117	1954572	1976837	1736065	2614231	1830190	2014273	1504605	1305050	1590127	1714553	1887515	1757918	1776164	1858633	2103160	2182109	1926331	2667788	2204085	2218952	2190906	1947256	1938375	2104910
Pb	1A2d	949483	914279	975853	1040250	1194567	1121241	1019437	1081970	1000792	857811	968771	1191393	1054985	980235	975750	949184	986304	922890	941902	923759	975410	893822	882571	844312	747411	754851	755603
Pb	1A2gviii	548199	578069	638562	631334	746158	776190	806487	768972	757441	740966	443883	490034	465520	461649	431916	377536	484451	485500	419817	380763	450293	430309	420960	431485	422890	411886	429492
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639	216507
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793	827333
Pb	1A3bi	246160089	227791472	208590879	85646072	10440514	3791801	3708800	3670208	3663827	3684043	3597814	3625737	3606564	3633324	3666378	3649707	3547342	3399684	3222988	3013351	2828109	2611893	2369371	2193981	2075173	1969004	1863269
Pb	1A3bii	14196283	13836158	12760568	5203282	627668	225879	215571	208704	195474	182633	162291	150330	135947	121595	107560	100724	90706	81394	71817	63696	57397	53448	47180	40877	35961	42450	30349
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4764854	3943324	3076590	2224173	1339179	416385	422635	433344	437228	429617	430163	436968	432564	434906	440552	449951	461868
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400	13030
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692	401463	305816
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444	2647000	3421730
Cd	1A2d	66303	63162	50699	52894	58893	54715	49391	50831	48260	42060	48340	62799	54216	49476	49728	49689	52013	50340	52077	51855	54985	51334	51076	49468	44516	45220	45154
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79	83	241
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283	40920	27800
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37661	34066	34013	28550	26577	24635
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2338111	1792802	1427808	1135219	820965	798160	767631	762708	681650	599389	580788	661129	583800	581322	599262	598775	616984	634534	579464	598905	609554	588596	588969	565009	577478	542893	539977
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	16711	15179	13240	14458	18827	15677	14761	15361	15665	16195	15749	15563	15157	15934	14928	15039	14758	13555	13644	13540
Hg	2C7c	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004	26002	28004	37004	19003	15002
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1533543	1222388	1151238	1011633	1029789	958003	1016293	829189	834795	841495	720648	561588	596405	677105	691980	640948	497142	542361	489000	533266	506880	496851	452584	480801	431407	408670	411712

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2f	1252	1015	731	893	840	1070	1055	1020	1046	904	1065	972	990	858	998	891	838	914	1028	832	873	957	943	787	819	842	762
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330	1362
DIOX	5E	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6709	6526	6043	6826	6565	6781	5723	6266	6215	6408	6272	6766	7108	6111	6259	6002	5783	5350	5901
HCB	2C1	332573	331340	345740	346474	365451	442116	456504	467210	454155	392081	451644	415899	426900	461024	484684	499593	509998	567688	600198	443996	667666	689364	717548	726840	699813	670616	724037
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337	56728	43645
PCB	2C1	5648145	4876382	5296823	5554735	6085379	6563911	6297587	7023684	6836461	6350657	7042925	6574617	6819860	6621254	6921790	6748960	7037190	7339212	6975985	4342122	6597687	7077907	6083750	6066881	6515367	6525926	6743577
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8952282	8361565	7820661	8239070	8666113	9431452	9138956	9874794	9638006	8697428	9855901	9418574	9473932	9035688	9534588	9469592	9830008	9988610	9568970	6414805	9215690	9825293	8783166	8583251	9034483	9093235	9215962