Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	14353	16708	15927	14770	15139	12358	16975	11998	12489	11299	9286	10493	11567	13152	12127	12319	12689	11470	12003	13384	15685	12896	12881	12162	11398	10731
NOx	1A2d	9371	10070	8839	8915	9592	8201	6526	6772	6222	5361	4253	4988	4521	4194	4131	4139	4352	4046	4252	4203	4410	4025	4022	4030	3685	385
NOx	1A2gviii	6884	8093	7706	7480	8170	8639	8387	8358	7485	6965	5248	5704	5525	5670	5410	5207	5930	5667	5279	4375	5780	5895	5738	5444	5436	2666
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14426	12915	10978	10330	8949	7661	9681	9767	9525	10369	11586	9813	10211	11620	8976	7708	8285	8892	8596	8797	8942	8954	8595	8328	7983	9137
NMVOC	1B2av	16862	14079	11374	6719	5309	5299	5186	5260	5225	5292	5296	5377	5493	5559	5571	5616	5684	5505	5482	5328	4941	5005	4776	4413	4057
SOx	1A2d	8319	9743	7767	8451	9358	8135	6256	6601	5668	4377	2805	2622	2394	2158	2071	1939	1997	1709	1766	1662	1722	1472	1436	1407	1249	243
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	391	318	263	360	395	422	435	459	493	556	570	551	474	461	523	567	588	648	728	619	625	671	641	664	674	647
SOx	1A3biii	4466	3172	2355	1085	1407	1180	549	106	110	69	49	20	18	18	15	20	16	13	13	12	13	13	12	11	11	11
SOx	1A3dii	5063	3832	3499	2330	1914	2167	1810	2725	3134	3276	3017	2937	3021	4179	4021	3871	2654	1383	1102	2230	1753	1362	839	944	810	122
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130	104
CO	1A3bi	681535	710760	652186	556860	582362	522032	502158	440371	409574	366317	314402	284816	254251	225143	197948	181947	162437	144546	129825	117044	103236	86120	67706	61210	57619	53998
CO	1A3bii	63743	72457	69838	63971	64631	60330	57545	51815	46786	40590	33211	29697	25091	20796	17236	16083	13919	12181	9831	8328	7173	6392	4610	3932	3477	3754

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A2d	904	1160	993	908	921	932	964	955	995	989	1046	985	984	957	878	27
PM10	1A2d	1200	1425	1218	1112	1128	1145	1186	1172	1217	1211	1280	1205	1204	1172	1073	33
BC	1A2d	292	367	322	295	295	292	304	291	301	298	315	292	289	279	251	15

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	2746810	2157330	1987115	1954572	1976836	1736064	2614229	1830188	2014271	1504604	1305049	1590126	1714551	1887514	1757916	1776163	1858540	2103050	2182017	1926222	2667676	2203957	2218865	2190767	1947118	1923469
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963	778104	766130	728645	640252	71147
Pb	1A2gviii	509857	560897	591383	596571	695244	722819	740418	713993	695985	674667	454978	493236	474765	460859	435298	395522	485600	441941	383423	341979	411448	391435	383225	384465	376403	259869
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018	232639
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	2845080	2723700	2264640	2468900	2831500	3041736	2929843	2719993	2479489	2671797	2828474	2591291	2368756	2039193	1981754	1934356	1819348	1673523	1561854	1619567	1552236	1582675	1256593	1336688	1049062	899793
Pb	1A3bi	246162259	227793468	208592685	85646816	10440604	3791833	3708832	3670239	3663859	3684075	3597847	3625770	3606600	3633361	3666418	3649748	3550574	3410394	3236132	3031255	2853736	2670267	2416489	2250329	2144621	2049261
Pb	1A3bii	14196420	13836290	12760688	5203331	627674	225881	215573	208706	195476	182634	162293	150331	135948	121596	107560	100725	90757	81553	72114	64240	58122	54739	48799	42633	37807	44908
Pb	1A3bvi	6085732	6139574	6204136	6071325	6143159	6217789	6248783	6267413	6335670	5633224	4764854	3943324	3076590	2224173	1339179	416385	422635	433344	437228	429617	430163	436968	432564	434906	440552	449951
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	701663	637038	673015	679874	733135	722383	725174	700914	677365	514337	640066
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787	9400
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692	401463
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444	2646200
Cd	1A2d	67252	63715	51371	53312	59328	54983	49760	51220	48508	42267	48505	62967	54327	49542	49852	50011	52310	50635	52229	51995	55077	51394	51195	49623	44726	1948
Cd	1A4bi	133805	138841	141556	146071	140450	145846	146923	137084	123615	124876	125020	119437	123289	136334	129868	133230	122732	130982	133211	144533	142641	143708	138913	134278	101933	127068
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79	83
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283	40920
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37661	34066	34013	28550	26577
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2340097	1794625	1429377	1136919	822495	799890	771024	766002	684738	601973	583829	664128	586617	583846	603525	603548	622001	635805	580558	599980	610768	589752	590105	566194	554272	543770
Hg	1A1a	474257	303488	224780	204582	222454	192980	221743	140884	140592	98921	93498	100904	113917	130102	129843	126467	128636	134521	138596	137997	173489	154643	135041	163108	144883	125490
Hg	1A2d	26499	22570	22474	22538	25264	20643	18419	18549	16476	14341	15309	19668	16235	15385	16087	16739	17185	16509	15996	15865	16445	15154	15552	15499	14335	319
Hg	1A2f	37356	30264	21815	26781	24961	31671	31353	30218	30982	26770	31631	28593	29083	24522	28684	28212	30228	27237	28742	23274	24887	27834	27799	23257	24682	24979
Hg	1A2gviii	11746	21433	20052	21552	22518	24045	23219	24257	22401	20136	18483	19761	20076	18895	18238	17638	19993	18830	15907	13640	18918	19645	18731	19480	19179	5714
Hg	1A4bi	27270	27928	28299	28978	28019	28891	29117	26926	24612	24435	24474	22920	23280	25186	23942	23840	21563	22657	22849	24587	24210	24267	23454	22658	17211	21403
Hg	2C7c	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004	26002	28004	37004	19003
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1533861	1222641	1151482	1011832	1029962	958130	1016396	845924	850511	854841	736308	575705	610711	689926	706190	655457	512345	544873	490988	536111	510352	499826	455777	484189	430572	412921

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2f	1239	1007	723	886	833	1062	1047	1013	1038	896	1052	959	979	848	987	975	1024	934	1090	912	963	1073	1092	983	989	828
DIOX	1A4bi	2731	2854	2942	3052	2907	3052	3082	2891	2582	2646	2652	2569	2682	3004	2866	2993	2788	2998	3063	3338	3298	3331	3220	3116	2363	2949
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231	1330
DIOX	5E	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6575	6844	6819	6854	6705	6246	7084	6731	6955	5833	6645	6647	6778	6648	7088	7334	6437	6483	6345	5887	5449
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	66670	60152	56797	53902	50856	46586	45756	43847	42450	41601	39504	41356	40630	39931	41429	42402	40568	36742	36801	34133	42655	37933	31240	30111	27718	28341
HCB	1A4bi	195092	203886	210124	218018	207667	218022	220148	206533	184456	189025	189433	183486	191555	214584	204744	213810	199094	214505	218973	238892	236040	238080	230155	222495	168776	210654
HCB	2C1	332573	331340	345740	346474	365451	442116	456504	467210	454155	392081	451644	415899	426900	461024	484684	499593	509998	567688	600198	443996	667666	689364	717548	726840	699813	670616
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337
PCB	1A2gviii	143913	693357	528584	630676	565440	617156	548882	645654	546769	418345	628421	619627	669671	664901	647771	660647	683153	677295	571490	462449	737937	800228	758030	770556	764286	1017
PCB	2C1	5648145	4876382	5296823	5554735	6085379	6563911	6297587	7023684	6836461	6350657	7042925	6574617	6819860	6621254	6921790	6748960	7037190	7339212	6975985	4342122	6597687	7077907	6083750	6066881	6515367	6525926
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8925051	8340015	7801383	8226707	8655971	9420542	9131465	9861799	9623788	8681532	9841015	9403575	9458862	9020579	9525159	9464635	9828079	9987666	9567589	6421349	9223697	9833680	8789489	8590024	9041648	9094297