Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4082	4113	4017	4229	4185	4043	3891	3794	3574
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14426	12915	10978	10330	8949	7661	9681	9767	9525	10369	11586	9813	10211	11620	8976	7708	8285	8892	8596	8797	8943	8955	8596	8328	7983
NMVOC	1B2av	16862	14079	11374	6719	5309	5299	5186	5260	5225	5292	5296	5377	5493	5559	5571	5616	5684	5505	5482	5328	4941	5005	4776	4413	4056
NMVOC	2D3d	34613	33420	32226	31033	29840	28646	27191	27765	24796	22146	22021	21848	18934	16678	15950	17390	16114	14811	11383	11861	13762	14575	14723	12559	12559
SOx	1A1a	16720	19642	19695	16840	16052	11487	16629	9726	10821	8299	6305	7502	8593	9564	8705	8082	8107	7655	7666	8428	9918	7863	7821	7390	6292
SOx	1A3biii	4635	3291	2440	1122	1455	1217	565	109	113	70	50	20	18	18	15	20	16	13	13	12	13	13	12	11	11
SOx	2A1	5259	4595	4408	4418	4442	5638	4887	4855	4342	553	72	57	91	97	74	57	27	51	18	38	26	46	55	84	130
NH3	3B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000	13321	13265	13032	13826	13723
NH3	3B4e	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860	3661	3953	3953	4196	4196
CO	1A3bii	63743	72458	69839	63971	64631	60330	57546	51815	46786	40590	33211	29697	25091	20796	17236	16083	13919	12181	9831	8328	7173	6392	4610	3932	3477
CO	1A4bii	38322	39378	40409	41282	42227	43278	44483	45714	47152	48760	50142	51542	52812	55022	57226	59197	61355	62779	64541	64699	65027	65112	64876	64407	64569
CO	1A4cii	9197	9362	9748	10184	10571	10936	11727	12138	12684	13284	13816	14309	14700	14926	15152	15336	16863	18076	19285	19943	20143	19819	19496	19130	19059

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963	778104	766130	728645	640252
Pb	1A2gviii	511032	562392	591969	596623	696318	724717	741800	715681	697790	676387	456890	497159	478127	466238	440857	398758	486699	447069	401738	360892	430090	411279	405548	412162	398524
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232	291018
Pb	1A3bi	246167165	227797397	208596710	85648665	10440816	3791915	3708915	3670326	3663939	3684153	3597919	3625833	3606652	3631696	3659747	3636349	3529816	3382349	3208182	2998778	2815529	2609528	2364457	2190874	2072163
Pb	1A3bii	14198407	13838198	12762463	5204061	627761	225913	215603	208735	195501	182657	162313	150347	135962	121569	107436	100549	90458	81149	71571	63479	57254	53469	47311	41025	36044
Pb	1A3bvi	11866486	11892268	11936810	11677041	11843036	12011387	12065299	12091017	12233263	10916487	9281093	7612778	5875737	4190054	2467691	675624	687202	706795	712453	694193	698788	710752	702701	699878	710304
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	701663	637038	673015	679874	733135	722383	725174	700914	677365	635588
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408000	1194350	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656	11787
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	466425	421692
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720	3356444
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61	79
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424	80283
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37661	34066	34013	28550
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2343045	1797806	1433756	1141275	826775	804377	776054	771159	691256	606855	589598	670667	594638	593119	613524	611869	629249	640647	586612	605186	615402	591255	590582	563948	574300
Hg	1A1a	487098	317794	239571	219042	236024	206924	234102	173063	174909	130782	120045	131517	145364	168193	166885	159114	159962	164331	166890	170201	191811	174843	170236	179129	161956
Hg	1A2f	37331	30242	21803	26780	24937	31627	31321	30179	30940	26730	31592	28519	29017	24398	28556	28068	30134	27118	28320	22837	24457	27376	27285	22619	24168
Hg	1A2gviii	11773	21468	20066	21553	22543	24088	23251	24295	22443	20176	18522	19841	20147	19020	18366	17722	20027	18948	16330	14076	19349	20103	19246	20119	19693
Hg	2C7c	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004	26002	28004	37004
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1546894	1237126	1166468	1026479	1043733	972255	1028916	878256	884966	886822	762958	606401	642228	728073	743273	688059	543601	574641	519193	568181	528497	519814	490697	499814	451334

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A1a	15718	14779	11719	11061	9645	10396	13716	11825	11730	11689	11377	13093	14060	15653	16000	17201	17837	18377	19815	21227	23674	20994	21410	22188	20304
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162	1231
HCB	1A1a	423074	463452	465821	494287	546000	556784	730840	585405	629195	605021	573690	661682	714731	792908	801668	836955	852973	871351	935599	998821	1115696	980309	997622	1021982	920153
HCB	2C1	332573	331340	345740	346474	365451	442116	456504	467210	454155	392081	451644	415899	426900	461024	484684	499593	509998	567688	600198	443996	667666	689364	717548	726840	699813
PCB	1A2d	492210	534092	390236	449550	439244	297955	288054	316170	222827	189300	147211	146385	97736	108668	126020	185224	171168	148488	81978	71698	50098	27858	50225	67606	79337
PCB	1A2gviii	143919	693364	528587	630676	565445	617165	548889	645662	546778	418353	628427	619640	669683	664926	647797	660676	683172	677318	571575	462537	738023	800320	758133	770684	764400
PCB	2C1	5648145	4876382	5296823	5554735	6085379	6563911	6297587	7023684	6836461	6350657	7042925	6574617	6819860	6621254	6921790	6748960	7037190	7339212	6975985	4342122	6597687	7077907	6083750	6066881	6515367
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8923619	8338714	7799982	8225422	8654597	9419166	9130419	9860843	9622912	8680779	9840324	9403098	9458468	9020224	9524913	9464498	9828057	9987806	9567949	6421929	9224474	9834464	8790238	8591235	9043590