Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bi	76343	79962	76410	69282	72032	68126	65601	61092	56619	53509	48800	43694	40038	36517	33126	30878	28045	25763	24259	22306	21176	18543	19447	18820
NOx	1A4bi	9300	9411	9035	8406	8333	7517	7514	6873	6614	6142	6089	5518	5304	5445	5142	4756	4080	4099	4011	4218	4174	3910	3759	3650
NMVOC	1A4cii	3142	3278	3414	3531	3650	3786	3981	4175	4395	4630	4834	4978	5074	5082	5078	5020	5413	5667	5894	5687	5331	4819	4343	3968
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14426	12915	10978	10330	8949	7661	9681	9767	9525	10369	11586	9813	10211	11620	8976	7708	8285	8892	8596	8797	8943	8955	8596	8119
NMVOC	1B2av	15774	13091	10477	6360	5065	5007	4929	5037	5074	5134	5115	5184	5219	5300	5342	5416	5511	5319	5422	5156	4825	4905	4698	4270
NH3	3B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000	13321	13265	13032	13826
NH3	3B4e	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860	3661	3953	3953	4196
CO	1A3bi	860973	896743	828519	713879	743821	672172	648347	573930	538160	487699	424132	387043	348903	312605	278335	257895	233257	210685	193942	177297	159756	135090	131770	119551
CO	1A3bii	91814	97334	97737	92304	91403	88742	82416	76992	65846	59613	50482	40770	35829	30913	26042	25870	22122	19186	15506	13054	11183	10046	8860	7629
CO	1A4bii	39956	41001	42026	42898	43837	44880	46137	47423	48912	50567	52002	53411	54691	56940	59179	61092	63190	64624	66401	66492	66745	66823	66563	66085
CO	1A4cii	9165	9530	9892	10201	10530	10895	11409	11934	12530	13189	13765	14258	14651	14877	15103	15286	16762	17979	19200	19863	20065	19742	19420	19056

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A2d	904	1160	993	908	921	932	964	955	995	989	1046	985	984	957
PM10	1A2d	1200	1425	1218	1112	1128	1145	1186	1172	1217	1211	1280	1205	1204	1172
TSP	1A2d	1250	1628	1386	1262	1281	1307	1357	1343	1395	1390	1470	1385	1386	1352
BC	1A2d	292	367	322	295	295	292	304	291	301	298	315	292	289	279

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963	778104	766130	728645
Pb	1A2gviii	873381	835009	796933	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774017	782864	761573	709427	723103	693207	805425	727265	675354	592113	677308	666094	652665	613628
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647	375232
Pb	1A3bi	245715803	227387220	208224038	85523065	10476024	3838188	3762723	3731952	3736466	3768999	3693700	3727720	3714943	3745324	3780236	3762293	3678643	3576930	3428639	3233627	3100742	2929480	2745606	2589939
Pb	1A3bii	13183975	12726485	11869195	4901903	609356	235511	228377	227045	222509	220155	209594	211135	209366	207991	207742	207968	211811	218282	219351	214294	215638	224277	224501	221993
Pb	1A3biii	848575	801815	754155	585482	493051	498235	489708	488764	488550	519417	550304	535990	523139	526909	544331	560320	575256	601165	596073	561040	574884	578454	550920	531031
Pb	1A3bvi	11866480	11892464	11936947	11676945	11843197	12011431	12065050	12091139	12233052	10916618	9281106	7612513	5875775	4189951	2467619	675634	687191	706786	712450	694214	698807	710767	702704	699788
Pb	2A3	1311000	1408003	1194352	1161825	885700	1447800	1392000	1580950	1551000	2729000	2884560	752840	728120	964130	895590	608806	40160	82860	38870	33720	28590	25400	14446	9656
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	402249	559041	398953	434727	463167
Pb	2C7c	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790	2096720
Cd	2A3	4300	4300	4800	4700	5200	8700	8800	8400	8500	25000	28400	13000	13500	14100	13500	9000	70	540	60	303	220	180	110	61
Cd	2C7c	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836	33424
Cd	2H1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37661	34066	34013
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2272145	1727014	1358700	1068555	752101	729111	697755	692667	611935	526806	510035	591798	512641	508793	527696	526894	544108	556693	505981	530095	537391	500722	502916	472964
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	2272145	1727014	1358700	1068555	752101	729111	697755	692667	611935	526806	510035	591798	512641	508793	527696	526894	544108	556693	505981	530095	537391	500722	502916	472964
Hg	1A1a	487098	317794	239571	219042	236024	206924	234102	173063	174909	130782	120045	131517	145364	168193	166885	159114	159962	164331	166890	170201	191811	174843	170236	179129
Hg	2C7c	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004	26002	28004
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1499352	1189313	1116823	978905	995527	923368	980281	831254	837337	839833	715856	557959	592936	677877	692968	637155	492485	523780	469644	520054	480614	471788	444167	453159
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1499352	1189313	1116823	978905	995527	923368	980281	831254	837337	839833	715856	557959	592936	677877	692968	637155	492485	523780	469644	520054	480614	471788	444167	453159

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A1a	15718	14779	11719	11061	9645	10396	13716	11825	11730	11689	11377	13093	14060	15653	16000	17201	17837	18377	19815	21227	23674	20994	21410	22188
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2122	1128	1162