Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3bi	76338	79955	76411	69329	72060	68169	65662	61148	56642	53629	48979	43929	40471	37088	33698	31421	28556	26234	24792	22798	21628	18930	19908
NMVOC	1B2av	15769	13087	10474	6358	5064	5005	4927	5035	5072	5131	5111	5179	5213	5293	5336	5409	5502	5310	5415	5150	4819	4905	4730
NMVOC	2D1	6739	6838	6757	6824	6420	6380	6209	6585	6415	6421	6949	6817	6660	7108	6939	6931	7024	7050	6780	6567	6733	6598	5921
NH3	4B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000	13321	13265	13032
NH3	4B6	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860	3661	3953	3953
CO	1A1a	8191	9694	9723	12735	15200	17402	23949	19609	20543	21565	20825	25423	26138	28267	29039	32056	32789	33055	36994	39335	45208	39095	40086
CO	1A3bi	860898	896697	828518	714040	743895	672273	648459	573949	538082	488063	424793	387985	350560	314680	280400	259828	235044	212351	195759	179011	161268	136217	132755
CO	1A3bii	91820	97339	97743	92304	91343	88681	82290	76968	65809	59579	50405	40717	35699	30799	26001	25794	22062	19135	15413	12958	11087	9955	8773

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A2d	904	1160	993	908	921	932	964	955	995	989	1046	985	984
TSP	1A2d	1250	1628	1386	1262	1281	1307	1357	1343	1395	1390	1470	1385	1386

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963	778104	766130
Pb	1A2fi	873300	834468	796879	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774014	782414	761218	709427	723103	693207	805425	727265	675354	592113	677300	664633	651402
Pb	1A3aii(i)	948360	907900	754880	822967	943833	1060264	931917	851127	788671	819803	872006	866149	781244	649927	604326	565484	543852	489757	467362	468113	440804	487085	355647
Pb	1A3bi	245563640	227249507	208086530	85433471	10418335	3783598	3700329	3662476	3655488	3674969	3588743	3616310	3597570	3621944	3649328	3625332	3518039	3370359	3196445	2988813	2815142	2605855	2398816
Pb	1A3bii	13164679	12706146	11848409	4881164	587561	213085	202563	197729	185014	173808	155701	144505	131401	118152	105137	98127	88631	79778	70869	63361	56929	54410	49596
Pb	1A3bvi	11865867	11892251	11936573	11676863	11843362	12011350	12065630	12091572	12232322	10916619	9279901	7611968	5875434	4189295	2467420	675573	687085	706644	712469	694258	698866	710781	702934
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	713362	643828	659523	677083	760822	720444	723721	698874
Pb	2A7d	1455000	1547403	1347252	1286125	1026300	1576600	1486700	1686350	1642400	2764600	2891560	759840	741120	969655	896060	608868	45181	84220	39870	34720	29590	26400	15446
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	401256	558910	401151	433977
Pb	2C5e	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020	2361790
Cd	2C5e	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823	56836
Cd	2D1	86801	89978	87419	91727	77991	73441	68340	70897	68591	60300	66527	63451	59455	54816	67976	56554	53551	50723	38230	39405	46412	37763	33920
Cd	FUTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526813	510031	591798	512646	508801	527706	529526	545272	554317	505669	535806	537226	518729	520525
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526813	510031	591798	512646	508801	527706	529526	545272	554317	505669	535806	537226	518729	520525
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526813	510031	591798	512646	508801	527706	529526	545272	554317	505669	535806	537226	518729	520525
Hg	1A1a	487097	317793	239570	219040	236023	206923	234101	173062	174908	130781	120044	131516	145362	168919	167762	160055	160833	165091	167465	171210	192849	175888	171157
Hg	2C5e	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004	26002
Hg	FUTOTAL	1499351	1189313	1116823	978905	995527	923368	980281	831254	837337	839833	715856	557959	592936	678605	693847	638466	493420	524159	470237	521944	481688	475845	446853
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1499351	1189313	1116823	978905	995527	923368	980281	831254	837337	839833	715856	557959	592936	678605	693847	638466	493420	524159	470237	521944	481688	475845	446853
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1499351	1189313	1116823	978905	995527	923368	980281	831254	837337	839833	715856	557959	592936	678605	693847	638466	493420	524159	470237	521944	481688	475845	446853

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A1a	15718	14779	11719	11061	9645	10396	13716	11825	11730	11689	11377	13093	14060	15653	16000	17201	17834	18373	19811	21223	23670	20990	21407
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2147	1069