Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A3bi	76339	79991	76570	69646	72524	68908	66737	62502	57898	54635	50593	44977	40915	37534	34042	31904	28923	26727	25203	23294	22299	19486
NOx	1A4bi	9222	9328	8948	8314	8236	7416	7410	6765	6404	6107	6049	5474	5254	5391	5087	4722	4041	3941	3884	4314	4093	4374
SOx	1A3di(i)	32611	39685	44980	45365	53398	52914	51538	59895	65963	66190	62594	61599	53686	73299	88487	88393	76828	56568	50804	53377	37388	27189
NH3	4B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000	13321	13265
NH3	4B6	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860	3661	3953
CO	1A1a	8191	9694	9723	12735	15200	17402	23949	19609	20543	21565	20825	25423	26138	28267	29039	32056	32789	33055	36994	39335	45208	39095
CO	1A3bi	860965	896931	829250	715314	745745	675027	652489	578219	542061	491423	434314	394170	354627	319567	285415	264866	238716	216428	201123	183683	165650	138843
CO	1A3bii	91385	97029	97140	91525	90803	87953	81868	76382	65296	58724	50303	40922	35854	30912	26014	26336	23053	20476	17497	14972	13009	11515

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A2d	904	1160	993	908	921	932	964	955	995	989	1046	985
TSP	1A2d	1250	1628	1386	1262	1281	1307	1357	1343	1395	1390	1470	1385

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963	778104
Pb	1A2fi	873300	834468	796879	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774014	782414	761218	709427	723103	693207	805425	727265	675354	592113	683581	674002
Pb	1A3bi	245658931	227346742	208183167	85477071	10424274	3785869	3703125	3665321	3657704	3676317	3644794	3651570	3629048	3670168	3709411	3691056	3574615	3451133	3311623	3092877	2914029	2708110
Pb	1A3bii	13163453	12705730	11847647	4880847	587573	213077	202572	197728	184835	173583	157535	147010	133440	119984	106957	102183	94936	88054	81188	73689	67021	62591
Pb	1A3bvi	11865876	11892458	11936940	11676938	11843200	12011460	12065685	12091174	12233651	10921956	9398078	7707899	5968316	4286850	2526796	693190	705608	726009	732982	712522	714937	728561
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	713362	643828	659523	677083	760822	720444	791984
Pb	2A7d	1455000	1547403	1347252	1286125	1026300	1576600	1486700	1686350	1642400	2764600	2891560	759840	741120	969655	896060	608868	45181	84220	39870	34720	29590	26400
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	401941	559017	402125
Pb	2C5e	52051000	29345500	32886420	22370800	13258300	8840200	6119900	7331900	6381800	5726400	3980100	5224600	3414700	4217946	4467090	3493150	3363709	4232409	2660532	2850730	2571450	2191020
Cd	1A3di(i)	7879	9582	10862	10954	12986	12860	13468	15783	18213	18312	18078	17824	15583	21190	25412	25915	28016	29028	27761	29077	25972	22380
Cd	2C5e	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839	40823
Cd	FUTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526814	510059	591824	512677	508846	527756	529579	545325	554370	505721	535424	537309	529150
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526814	510059	591824	512677	508846	527756	529579	545325	554370	505721	535424	537309	529150
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2272132	1726990	1358700	1068557	752115	729110	697753	692674	611951	526814	510059	591824	512677	508846	527756	529579	545325	554370	505721	535424	537309	529150
Hg	1A1a	487097	317793	239570	219040	236023	206923	234101	173062	174908	130781	120044	131516	145362	168919	167762	160055	160833	165091	167465	171210	192849	175888
Hg	2C5e	184022	111022	74022	58022	38022	57022	96022	77022	72014	204008	103017	86020	71003	62002	61001	45002	29001	64002	31003	44001	29001	26004
Hg	FUTOTAL	1583086	1281536	1215101	1083744	1104980	1042850	1087448	930583	907831	886557	728616	613798	633642	722469	740643	690800	551909	585590	534387	585945	546548	548222
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1583086	1281536	1215101	1083744	1104980	1042850	1087448	930583	907831	886557	728616	613798	633642	722469	740643	690800	551909	585590	534387	585945	546548	548222
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1583086	1281536	1215101	1083744	1104980	1042850	1087448	930583	907831	886557	728616	613798	633642	722469	740643	690800	551909	585590	534387	585945	546548	548222

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2594	2147
HCB	1A3di(i)	91222	109939	124867	125747	148743	146945	154493	181090	208965	208163	204423	200856	176099	238594	284459	290207	313203	323932	309154	323215	291653	252700