Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: RU      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
NOx1A1a            575000644000642500636300649200570700359700323200463000465569468000440744436283401361408177386840362783355588348253
NOx1A3ei            54000072700072530071830017000040000126000300690706542760784632044884245430457765171548499507396131
NOx2A6                 8110011000 8105090140101700112044114031109245108462111861114863117864124120
SOx1A2b                  100195400       11876211299510722720675
SOx1A3ei            90000178000165300154900300000192000840003800700900104310158891106786712639366
SOxNTCOMPL(NECD)                    1272040125066011683731126682111229511084081165416967704911652883819832289
SOxNTCOMPLIANCE                    1272040125066011683731126682111229511084081165416967704911652883819832289
NH31A4cii               50100054480064007000 101010101091010101010
CO2A6                 7470011500 9448312556412643811018299708116436107653107104135074163045175151
CONATIONALTOTAL13329000130000001170300011320000106030009945000940100010332000103830001080400010811000 11517000116030001213200012277000103909001072930011008500104735409004428932826997634239976260100212521006541010241866104047621059425348001924557592

PM (Unit = Mg)
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
PM2.51A2b  3100029000326002980034600 40032240       5534524446464699
PM2.51A2e       380021600348041454399501651705225512154725387691878587133
PM2.51A3ei      21200  2340281281338320145127169145120114
PM2.52A6  30000280003150028800329005950012000 5720139684372303550135889372303076426812260152521925063
PM101A2b  4700052000584005340052000 50048360       8302786569697049
PM101A2e       560032500522062186599752477557838768182078080103771178710699
PM101A3ei      31800  2511422422508479218191254217180170
PM102A6  44000490005500050200493008930018000 8580259527558465325153833558464614640217390233782837594
TSP1A2b  7800081000910008320086600 90080600       13836131091161411748
TSP1A2e       94005410087001036310998125401292513063128021367913467172951964417832
TSP1A3ei      53000  4851703703846799363318423361300284
TSP2A6  740007700086500790008220014880030000 14300399211930768875289722930767691067029650386304762657

HM (Unit = g)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Pb1A1a            108000000113000000120000000130000000130000000  400000           
Cd1A1a            1960000021800000230000002520000025200000  130000           
Cd1A2gviii            3160000035500000324000003420000034200000  9000           
Hg1A2gviii            45000005500000490000055000005500000  130000           
HgNATIONALTOTAL1560000013400000114000001180000010400000104000001010000096000009400000990000010000000 1020000011400000119000001400000014000000  980000