Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: RU      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A1a													575000	644000	642500	636300	649200	570700	359700	323200	463000	465569	468000	440744	436283	401361	408177	386840	362783	355588
NOx	1A2gviii													206000	239000	238500	236100	240900	77700	6200	32500	17798	18074	13720	13398	12540	13170	13613	21929	23298	24666
NOx	1A3ei													540000	727000	725300	718300	170000	40000	126000	300	69070	65427	60784	63204	48842	45430	45776	51715	48499	50739
NOx	2A6																		81100	11000		81050	90140	101700	112044	114031	109245	108462	111861	114863	117864
SOx	1A2b																			100	195400								118762	112995	107227
SOx	1A3ei													90000	178000	165300	154900	300000	192000	84000	3	800	700	900	1043	1015	889	1106	786	712	639
NH3	1A4cii																501000	544800	6400	7000		10	10	10	10	10	9	10	10	10	10
NH3	3B4h													560000	560000	567000			526000	519000		60	60	60	59	59	57	57	49	49	48
CO	1A2b																			1900	534700								25546	24475	23405
CO	2A6																		74700	11500		94483	125564	126438	110182	99708	116436	107653	107104	135074	163045

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2b			31000	29000	32600	29800	34600		400	32240								5534	5244	4646
PM2.5	1A2e								3800	21600	3480	4145	4399	5016	5170	5225	5121	5472	5387	6918	7858
PM2.5	1A3ei							21200			2	340	281	281	338	320	145	127	169	145	120
PM2.5	2A6			30000	28000	31500	28800	32900	59500	12000		57201	39684	37230	35501	35889	37230	30764	26812	26015	25219
PM10	1A2b			47000	52000	58400	53400	52000		500	48360								8302	7865	6969
PM10	1A2e								5600	32500	5220	6218	6599	7524	7755	7838	7681	8207	8080	10377	11787
PM10	1A3ei							31800			2	511	422	422	508	479	218	191	254	217	180
PM10	2A6			44000	49000	55000	50200	49300	89300	18000		85802	59527	55846	53251	53833	55846	46146	40217	39023	37828
TSP	1A2b			78000	81000	91000	83200	86600		900	80600								13836	13109	11614
TSP	1A2e								9400	54100	8700	10363	10998	12540	12925	13063	12802	13679	13467	17295	19644
TSP	1A3ei							53000			4	851	703	703	846	799	363	318	423	361	300
TSP	2A6			74000	77000	86500	79000	82200	148800	30000		143003	99211	93076	88752	89722	93076	76910	67029	65038	63047

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a													108000000	113000000	120000000	130000000	130000000			400000
Cd	1A1a													19600000	21800000	23000000	25200000	25200000			130000
Cd	1A2gviii													31600000	35500000	32400000	34200000	34200000			9000
Hg	1A2gviii													4500000	5500000	4900000	5500000	5500000			130000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	15600000	13400000	11400000	11800000	10400000	10400000	10100000	9600000	9400000	9900000	10000000		10200000	11400000	11900000	14000000	14000000			980000