Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

RecalculationsKCA for CLRTAPInv. comparisonTime seriesTrend graphsAdd Comments

TIME SERIES

Party: RU      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
NOx1A1a            575000644000642500636300649200570700359700323200463000465569468000440744436283401361408177386840 
NOx1A3ei            540000727000725300718300170000400001260003006907065427607846320448842454304577651715 
SOx1A2b                  100195400       118762 
SOx1A3ei            900001780001653001549003000001920008400038007900104310158891106786 
NH31A4cii               50100054480064007000 101010101091010 
NH33B4h            560000560000567000  526000519000 6060605959575749 
CO1A2b                  1900534700       25546 

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
PM2.511B          1960342617346296961405124109952436 
PM2.51A2e       380021600348041454399501651705225512154725387 
PM2.51A3ei      21200  2340281281338320145127169 
PM2.52A6  30000280003150028800329005950012000 5720139684372303550135889372303076426812 
PM101A2e       560032500522062186599752477557838768182078080 
PM101A3ei      31800  2511422422508479218191254 
PM102A6  44000490005500050200493008930018000 8580259527558465325153833558464614640217 
TSP1A2e       94005410087001036310998125401292513063128021367913467 
TSP1A3ei      53000  4851703703846799363318423 
TSP2A6  740007700086500790008220014880030000 14300399211930768875289722930767691067029 

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Pb1A1a            108000000113000000120000000130000000130000000  400000         
Cd1A1a            1960000021800000230000002520000025200000  130000         
Cd1A2gviii            3160000035500000324000003420000034200000  9000         
Hg1A2gviii            45000005500000490000055000005500000  130000         
HgNATIONALTOTAL1560000013400000114000001180000010400000104000001010000096000009400000990000010000000 1020000011400000119000001400000014000000  980000