Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RU Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2gviii													206000	239000	238500	236100	240900	77700	6200	32500	13531	12258	8175	7957	6847	6857	7302
NOx	1A3ei													540000	727000	725300	718300	170000	40000	126000	300	69070	65427	60784	63204	48842	45430	45776
SOx	1A3ei													90000	178000	165300	154900	300000	192000	84000	3	800	7	900	1043	1015	889	1106
NH3	1A4cii																501000	544800	6400	7000		10	10	10	10	10	9	10

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11B											196034	26173	462	9696	1405	12410	995
PM2.5	1A3ei							21200			2	340	281	281	338	320	145	127
PM2.5	2A6			30000	28000	31500	28800	32900	59500	12000		57201	39684	37230	35501	35889	37230	30764
PM10	11B											239597	31989	565	11851	1717	15167	1217
PM10	1A3ei							31800			2	511	422	422	508	479	218	191
PM10	2A6			44000	49000	55000	50200	49300	89300	18000		85802	59527	55846	53251	53833	55846	46146
TSP	1A3ei							53000			4	851	703	703	846	799	363	318
TSP	2A6			74000	77000	86500	79000	82200	148800	30000		143003	99211	93076	88752	89722	93076	76910

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a													108000000	113000000	120000000	130000000	130000000			400000
Cd	1A1a													19600000	21800000	23000000	25200000	25200000			130000
Cd	1A2gviii													31600000	35500000	32400000	34200000	34200000			9000
Hg	1A2gviii													4500000	5500000	4900000	5500000	5500000			130000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	15600000	13400000	11400000	11800000	10400000	10400000	10100000	9600000	9400000	9900000	10000000		10200000	11400000	11900000	14000000	14000000			980000