Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: RU      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A3ei            54000072700072530071830017000040000126000300 4276078463204  
SOx1A2b                  100195400172726     
SOx1A3ei            90000178000165300154900300000192000840003 79001043  
NH31A4cii               50100054480064007000 1111710  

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
PM2.511B          7400261734609700  
PM2.51A3ei      21200  2 1281338  
PM1011B          90003198956011900  
PM101A3ei      31800  2 2420508  
TSP11B          139004943890018300  
TSP1A3ei      53000  4 3703846  

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Pb1A1a            108000000113000000120000000130000000130000000  400000      
Cd1A1a            1960000021800000230000002520000025200000  130000      
Cd1A2gviii            3160000035500000324000003420000034200000  9000      
CdNATIONALTOTAL7940000068200000688000005900000056600000574000005100000050400000490000005090000050500000 5150000057300000554000005940000059400000  22600000      
Hg1A2gviii            45000005500000490000055000005500000  130000      
HgNATIONALTOTAL1560000013400000114000001180000010400000104000001010000096000009400000990000010000000 1020000011400000119000001400000014000000  980000