Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: RU      Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3ei													540000	727000	725300	718300	170000	40000	126000	300		427	60784	63204
SOx	1A2b																			100	195400	172726
SOx	1A3ei													90000	178000	165300	154900	300000	192000	84000	3		7	900	1043
NH3	1A4cii																501000	544800	6400	7000		11	11	7	10

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	11B											7400	26173	460	9700
PM2.5	1A3ei							21200			2		1	281	338
PM10	11B											9000	31989	560	11900
PM10	1A3ei							31800			2		2	420	508
TSP	11B											13900	49438	900	18300
TSP	1A3ei							53000			4		3	703	846

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a													108000000	113000000	120000000	130000000	130000000			400000
Cd	1A1a													19600000	21800000	23000000	25200000	25200000			130000
Cd	1A2gviii													31600000	35500000	32400000	34200000	34200000			9000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	79400000	68200000	68800000	59000000	56600000	57400000	51000000	50400000	49000000	50900000	50500000		51500000	57300000	55400000	59400000	59400000			22600000
Hg	1A2gviii													4500000	5500000	4900000	5500000	5500000			130000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	15600000	13400000	11400000	11800000	10400000	10400000	10100000	9600000	9400000	9900000	10000000		10200000	11400000	11900000	14000000	14000000			980000