Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: RS      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2gviii	5162	6371	7187	4875	4085	3062	5570	6546	5917	5453	4545	6210	6834	7461	7480	7518	7865	6745	4875	3630	4624	5064	4423	4718	3750	3778	4875	4178	4780	3794	3308
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	183017	167736	157010	130196	136917	151798	158661	168799	168548	132156	146573	151502	161651	164842	179742	165280	166887	173402	170550	161017	147634	161619	152176	152447	125584	145046	185885	184484	172902	168823	176251
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	183017	167736	157010	130196	136917	151798	158661	168799	168548	132156	146573	151502	161651	164842	179742	155226	166887	173402	170550	161017	147634	161619	152176	152447	125584	145046	185885	184484	172902	168823	167353
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	183017	167736	157010	130196	136917	151798	158661	168799	168548	132156	146573	151502	161651	164842	179742	165280	166887	173402	170550	161017	147634	161619	152176	152447	125584	145046	185885	184484	172902	168823	176251
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99	289	104	368	106	378	1272
SOx	1A2gviii	13194	20097	25137	17695	14698	8923	16814	19743	19424	19122	16024	21097	23259	25699	23993	18364	19740	16669	14715	10176	11939	17459	14068	9999	10338	10873	16654	12260	14292	10936	9786
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6088	7476	11268	15986	6996	14046	20186	21787	18267
CO	1A3bi	192512	184898	157687	99722	149924	152310	153257	156761	157807	137699	148695	154109	142854	150268	143229	134621	118106	105454	97931	86137	68322	56512	47653	43509	39573	41534	41167	37569	33331	29646	27818
CO	1A4ai	4388	4062	5859	6239	5211	1482	4206	4126	6736	6048	5583	5410	5867	6132	6270	5916	2281	7656	3070	5882	8258	11169	5109	3781	2123	2814	3327	2053	1575	1749	2458

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1a	1158	1143	1087	1139	1141	1164	1180	1186	1184	1144	1031	1105	1058	1075	862	1054	1044	1051	991	977	1026
PM2.5	2D3i	502	461	564	587	589	662	659	713	748	760	746	875	882	785	727	1066	1444	1576	1482	1460	1478
PM10	1A1a	2630	2583	2568	2690	2718	2587	2679	2679	2722	2573	2325	2547	2409	2493	1974	2417	2393	2414	2268	2256	2374
PM10	1B1a	1367	1304	1328	1401	1435	1470	1545	1557	1621	1611	1590	1746	1627	1715	1265	1602	1632	1671	1581	1633	1666
PM10	2D3i	574	522	653	686	680	759	742	782	840	864	823	944	956	856	805	1148	1605	1744	1651	1649	1647
TSP	1A1a	3871	3799	3785	3964	4006	3802	3944	3940	4008	3783	3414	3745	3540	3663	2894	3546	3512	3543	3325	3310	3484
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681	3395	3458	3540	3349	3460	3530
TSP	2B10a	17618	19550	30542	26058	41076	40050	23094	37360	17801	16343	30129	41147	45605	48681	31793	23764	14712	26422	29086	27	27
BC	1A2gvii	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	222	199	158	110	176	122	161	118	118	103	93	101	125	139

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3bi	345835100	322834500	280073600	178422500	272764800	267373500	265360300	276585500	281479700	252238600	176124600	182422400	171173600	204602400	198033200	181117800	155401000	145255100	128977100	113737600	54525200	6612000	5403700	5612600	5738600	6599000	887239	940604	952306	1011216	1045481
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400	594000	225575	247364	285439	272317	293264
Pb	1A4ai	631631	584654	843289	898027	749986	213355	605411	593801	969466	870441	803513	778710	844386	882630	902435	851452	328324	1102007	411447	818987	1160696	1567345	701713	517945	274954	369866	439897	252308	181750	210010	311944
Pb	2C1	4185388	2524760	2668307	724037	556013	728065	2756339	4100544	3920510	920083	2784359	2380274	2364291	2844381	20817223	26784942	42835178	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880	19378447	22081441	37254317	42839901	37241804	20998330
Pb	2C7a	2416000	2144000	2160000	816000	1152000	1248000	1664000	1808000	1504000	800000	735680	518000	581680	229440	198880	516560	682880	520560	560960	448160	362000	476843	575527	600902	546190	731992	998785	1119283	1096289	1371668	1214056
Cd	2C1	70082	42277	44689	12127	9313	12194	46163	68675	65660	15410	46632	39865	39597	47637	146600	179869	281737	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304	129833	160349	245248	291895	260622	159771
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249	641661	891303	1019654	982942	1183075	937491
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3990370	3507661	3377446	2004184	2234967	2418785	2869321	3078730	2814594	1889511	1957769	1774274	1863242	1588935	1671062	1877978	2150128	1985042	1970366	1909332	1843210	1976144	1875430	1850264	1696176	2098336	2440219	2637352	2620405	2809606	2765408
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3990370	3507661	3377446	2004184	2234967	2418785	2869321	3078730	2814594	1889511	1957769	1774274	1863242	1588935	1671062	1877978	2150128	1985042	1970366	1909332	1843210	1976144	1875430	1850264	1696176	2098336	2440219	2637352	2620405	2809606	2765408
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3990370	3507661	3377446	2004184	2234967	2418785	2869321	3078730	2814594	1889511	1957769	1774274	1863242	1588935	1671062	1877978	2150128	1985042	1970366	1909332	1843210	1976144	1875430	1850264	1696176	2098336	2440219	2637352	2620405	2809606	2765408
Hg	1A1a	1107700	972669	896238	855314	786768	1002495	964311	1038360	1044414	774855	879163	859243	903913	946329	968882	840512	894456	889771	924857	849793	772901	871975	812458	862303	673797	825075	816967	827063	774298	778419	820575
Hg	1A1c	1080013	450859	1054908	979594	901718	761337	837676	852021	828454	709079	719325	732646	773633	816670	836139	631715	594827	547691	577407	285554	585375	693592	533231	495252	196566	325441	541578	324260	321478	207366	213768
Hg	1A2f	126294	112221	94763	50667	75061	78968	102638	93627	104861	73313	98546	112558	111534	96591	104272	105948	119401	124568	132342	103481	99152	97503	85220	74094	74733	77013	83830	88803	97406	100151	110044
Hg	1A4ai	37238	34468	49716	52943	44216	12578	35692	35008	57155	51317	47371	45909	49781	52036	53203	50198	19356	64969	27363	51260	71334	96240	44824	33422	19582	25714	30341	19883	15973	17279	23339
Hg	2C1	1696	1010	985	260	197	266	1021	1526	1457	336	1034	879	876	1059	176090	233415	376929	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947	169396	181036	326482	367989	314964	168041
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2768367	1929714	2571378	2346208	2185078	2148955	2329295	2425049	2465641	1981865	2119599	2138355	2249378	2349495	2580355	2186201	2294992	2292328	2351642	1795719	2098934	2330258	1842908	1827208	1329105	1692976	1961137	1877619	1851246	1683049	1627347
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2768367	1929714	2571378	2346208	2185078	2148955	2329295	2425049	2465641	1981865	2119599	2138355	2249378	2349495	2580355	2186201	2294992	2292328	2351642	1795719	2098934	2330258	1842908	1827208	1329105	1692976	1961137	1877619	1851246	1683049	1627347
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2768367	1929714	2571378	2346208	2185078	2148955	2329295	2425049	2465641	1981865	2119599	2138355	2249378	2349495	2580355	2186201	2294992	2292328	2351642	1795719	2098934	2330258	1842908	1827208	1329105	1692976	1961137	1877619	1851246	1683049	1627347

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A4ai	957	886	1278	1360	1136	323	917	900	1469	1319	1217	1180	1279	1337	1367	1290	497	1669	623	1241	1759	2373	1063	786	418	562	668	385	278	321	476
DIOX	1B1b	6324	2640	6177	5736	5280	4458	4905	4989	4851	4152	4212	4290	4530	4782	4896	3699	3483	3207	3381	2517	3156	3186	2907	2946	1518	1758	2304	2810	2338	1998	2053
PCB	2C5	25869000	101135400	149435000	15938400	31844800	42379000	92668800	92865000	80997000	18200200	22877000	22871800	23207200	22221800	14027000	12131600	16728400	21075600	31200000	36493600	62483200	67984332	47795800	19619600
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000
PCB	2C7a											2664000	185000	3589000	2072000	3034000	7363000	9324000	9213000	9768000	4218000	3515000	10021080	9384310	12699695	7107700	8165900	8253161	5435326	8211140	18841388	36759315