Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2gviii	5162	6371	7187	4875	4085	3062	5570	6546	5917	5453	4545	6210	6834	7461	7480	7688	8235	7159	5141	3996	4977	5408	4721	5035	3860	3963	5072	4372	4967	3966
NOx	1A3bi	19799	18283	16016	10198	15683	15383	15405	16225	16704	15189	17346	18197	17521	17881	17558	16419	15352	15139	14884	13760	14148	12304	11379	11138	10926	12011	8663	8769	8876	8983
NOx	1A4bi	5956	4655	5294	5091	4708	3901	4543	4616	5027	4745	4929	4819	5042	5187	5349	4859	4127	5265	4712	4843	4806	4855	4877	4155	4031	4010	4483	4254	4268	4417
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99	289	104	368	106	378
SOx	1A2gviii	13194	20097	25137	17695	14698	8923	16814	19743	19424	19122	16024	21097	23259	25699	23993	19282	21737	18903	16162	12066	13756	19201	15648	11730	10847	11771	17565	13160	15119	11729
NH3	3F	2525	4458	2484	2501	2855	3259	2789	3789	3010	3399	1869	3423	3197	2143	3791	3845	3326	3421	3525	3446	3401	3494	2922	2959	3119	2991	2996	2939	2782	2624
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6088	7476	11268	15986	6996	14046	20186	21787
CO	1A4bi	281121	222413	221470	220726	206382	170675	189318	190196	208945	203023	211665	207029	216326	221602	223731	206792	175638	210962	196265	212038	205565	202240	204629	173928	175515	172258	190921	178904	181122	186562
CO	3F	70188	123904	69023	69508	79351	90561	77506	105296	83642	94460	51941	95124	88853	59555	105352	106862	92440	95083	97974	95761	94531	97091	81196	82240	86695	83121	83251	81692	77304	72917

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	2D3i	502	461	564	587	589	662	659	713	748	760	746	875	882	785	727	1066	1444	1576	1482	1460
PM10	1A1a	2630	2583	2568	2690	2718	2587	2679	2679	2722	2573	2325	2547	2409	2493	1974	2417	2393	2414	2268	2256
TSP	1A1a	3871	3799	3785	3964	4006	3802	3944	3940	4008	3783	3414	3745	3540	3663	2894	3546	3512	3543	3325	3310
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681	3395	3458	3540	3349	3460

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	345835100	322834500	280073600	178422500	272764800	267373500	265360300	276585500	281479700	252238600	176124600	182422400	171173600	204602400	198033200	181117800	155401000	145255100	128977100	113737600	54525200	6612000	5403700	5612600	5738600	6599000	415365	436062	456760	477457
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400	594000	106044	112586	119128	125670
Pb	1A4ai	631631	584654	843289	898027	749986	213355	605411	593801	969466	870441	803513	778710	844386	882630	902435	851452	328324	1102007	411447	818987	1160696	1567345	701713	517945	274954	369866	439897	252308	181750	210010
Pb	2C1	4185388	2524760	2668307	724037	556013	728065	2756339	4100544	3920510	920083	2784359	2380274	2364291	2844381	20817223	26784942	42835178	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880	19378447	22081441	37254317	42839901	37253804
Pb	2C7a	2416000	2144000	2160000	816000	1152000	1248000	1664000	1808000	1504000	800000	735680	518000	581680	229440	198880	516560	682880	520560	560960	448160	362000	476843	575527	600902	546190	731992	998785	1119283	1096289	1371668
Cd	2C1	70082	42277	44689	12127	9313	12194	46163	68675	65660	15410	46632	39865	39597	47637	146600	179869	281737	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304	129833	160349	245248	291895	260823
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249	641661	891303	1019654	982942	1183075
Cd	3F	926014	1634715	910644	917043	1046913	1194804	1022571	1389217	1103526	1246246	685273	1255015	1172273	785732	1389953	1409867	1219593	1254471	1292605	1263417	1247190	1280963	1071251	1085031	1143803	1096652	1098367	1077793	1019908	962023
Hg	1A1a	1107700	972669	896238	855314	786768	1002495	964311	1038360	1044414	774855	879163	859243	903913	946329	968882	840512	894456	889771	924857	849793	772901	871975	812458	862303	673797	825075	816967	827063	774298	778419
Hg	1A1c	1080013	450859	1054908	979594	901718	761337	837676	852021	828454	709079	719325	732646	773633	816670	836139	631715	594827	547691	577407	285554	585375	693592	533231	495252	196566	325441	541578	324260	321478	207366
Hg	1A2f	126294	112221	94763	50667	75061	78968	102638	93627	104861	73313	98546	112558	111534	96591	104272	105948	119401	124568	132342	103481	99152	97503	85220	74094	74733	77013	83830	88803	97406	100151
Hg	1A4ai	37238	34468	49716	52943	44216	12578	35692	35008	57155	51317	47371	45909	49781	52036	53203	50198	19356	64969	27363	51260	71334	96240	44824	33422	19582	25714	30341	19883	15973	17279
Hg	2C1	1696	1010	985	260	197	266	1021	1526	1457	336	1034	879	876	1059	176090	233415	376929	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947	169396	181036	326482	367989	314968
Hg	3F	147320	260068	144875	145893	166554	190082	162682	221012	175561	198266	109021	199662	186498	125003	221129	224297	194026	199575	205642	200998	198417	203790	170426	172619	181969	174467	174740	171467	162258	153049
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2915376	2189474	2715923	2491786	2351318	2338728	2491666	2645754	2640899	2179831	2228330	2337722	2435586	2474211	2801196	2412166	2493006	2496413	2560087	2000513	2300991	2537524	2016498	2003304	1511928	1869152	2137622	2050809	2015094	1837600
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2915376	2189474	2715923	2491786	2351318	2338728	2491666	2645754	2640899	2179831	2228330	2337722	2435586	2474211	2801196	2412166	2493006	2496413	2560087	2000513	2300991	2537524	2016498	2003304	1511928	1869152	2137622	2050809	2015094	1837600
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2915376	2189474	2715923	2491786	2351318	2338728	2491666	2645754	2640899	2179831	2228330	2337722	2435586	2474211	2801196	2412166	2493006	2496413	2560087	2000513	2300991	2537524	2016498	2003304	1511928	1869152	2137622	2050809	2015094	1837600

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	3F	526144	928816	517411	521047	594837	678866	581006	789328	627003	708094	389360	713077	666064	446439	789746	801061	692951	712767	734435	717851	708630	727820	608665	616495	649888	623098	624072	612382	579493	546604
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	595496	981829	574417	576245	646346	722331	629872	839020	680711	757937	441766	764661	720095	502309	854183	860165	748378	773904	792764	774401	766359	787296	661506	664170	696808	673043	674595	663782	633646	602384
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	595496	981829	574417	576245	646346	722331	629872	839020	680711	757937	441766	764661	720095	502309	854183	860165	748378	773904	792764	774401	766359	787296	661506	664170	696808	673043	674595	663782	633646	602384
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	595496	981829	574417	576245	646346	722331	629872	839020	680711	757937	441766	764661	720095	502309	854183	860165	748378	773904	792764	774401	766359	787296	661506	664170	696808	673043	674595	663782	633646	602384
PCB	2C5	25869000	101135400	149435000	15938400	31844800	42379000	92668800	92865000	80997000	18200200	22877000	22871800	23207200	22221800	14027000	12131600	16728400	21075600	31200000	36493600	62483200	67984332	47795800	19619600
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000